Did Elon just say that they will build close to 100.000 cars this year?

[krla]

At the 5 min mark Elon states:

"Every year we double our total cumulative production.
Beginning 2015 we had around 50.000 cars on the road
and in 2015 we produced another 50.000.
So the total fleet of tesla doubled last year.
And we will approximately double again this year."

So they need to produce close to 100.000 cars this year to achieve that

I know Elon stated before (I believe the Q3/15 results call) that they have now a max production capacity of 1000 S and 1000 S per week but over a year it would average about 1600 to 1800 per week.
That would indicate an annual production between 83.200 and 93.600 cars for 2016, which matches the above statement.

 

[RationalOptimist]

At the 5 min mark Elon states:

"Every year we double our total cumulative production.
Beginning 2015 we had around 50.000 cars on the road
and in 2015 we produced another 50.000.
So the total fleet of tesla doubled last year.
And we will approximately double again this year."

So they need to produce close to 100.000 cars this year to achieve that

I know Elon stated before (I believe the Q3/15 results call) that they have now a max production capacity of 1000 S and 1000 S per week but over a year it would average about 1600 to 1800 per week.
That would indicate an annual production between 83.200 and 93.600 cars for 2016, which matches the above statement.

Nice catch. Though there's lots of flex in that word 'approximately'. I don't think they will guide as high as that. 'A win should feel like a win.' I could imagine external guidance 75-80k, internal goal 90-100k.

It's a great interview. Whatever the 2016 number, the key remains what happens with model 3, what happens with Tesla energy, and who wins the race to full safe autonomous driving. I think there are a couple of amazing years ahead, and $200 will turn out to be a spectacular price to buy in at. I'm loading up on Jan 2018 options. Potentially for 10x returns on those.

 

[Drax7]

Elon is always much smarter than we anticipated .
Very compelling.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon is always much smarter than we anticipated .
Very compelling.

I caught the 100k car comment, but I want to point out to the Bolt-being-first-to-market-and-thusly-is-going-to-eat-Tesla's-lunch people is the discussion on other companies bringing BEV's to market. Specifically the part where Elon says Tesla will continue to make the most compelling BEVs (regardless of what anyone else makes). So while encouraging and helping others to make BEVs, and welcoming them to the market with open arms, Tesla will continue to strive to lead the pack with compelling technology, aesthetics etc... So yeah, Tesla isn't going to stop or standstill just because GM or whomever decide to try and copy some a few specs like range or price.

 

[hockeythug]

It was a while ago but someone said(Tesla or Musk) said the goal was 100k annualized production rate at year end 2015.

 

[Chickenlittle]

It was a while ago but someone said(Tesla or Musk) said the goal was 100k annualized production rate at year end 2015.

The market is so strange. Guide to 80,000 and deliver 82,000 and the sp will be higher than if you guide to 100,000 and deliver 98,000

 

[The Blue Owl]

My favourite quote from this video:

"Jeff who?"

 

[hockeythug]

The comment initially was made in the 2Q14 shareholder letter and I guess it was about deliveries.

Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks, Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...0cdad2cf-0497-41a3-ad2a-788f57412777/Tesla Q2

 

[electracity]

I think Tesla could get close to 100K if 1) No major parts problem on the MX, and 2) China takes off.

I just read that Lincoln sold 11,000 cars in China in their first year. No reason China can't be Tesla's biggest market, especially in 2017. Since the Model X morphed from an American SUV into a Chinese businessman's town car, it better sell well in that country.

I still want my 'Merica model Tesla SUV to haul dogs and stuff from costco that I should not have purchased.

 

[colettimj]

The comment initially was made in the 2Q14 shareholder letter and I guess it was about deliveries.



http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...0cdad2cf-0497-41a3-ad2a-788f57412777/Tesla Q2

To clarify, "Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year." means a ramp up to about 2,000 delivered per week at the end of the year, not 100,000 delivered for all of 2016.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I hate it when mods cut discussions out of threads and make it their own thread. The very first post of this new thread says, "at the 5 min mark Elon states"... At the 5 min mark of what? Link?

 

[Gerardf]

I hate it when mods cut discussions out of threads and make it their own thread. The very first post of this new thread says, "at the 5 min mark Elon states"... At the 5 min mark of what? Link?

Maybe your browser does not show the embedded video ? It is there. To be more exact, at 5min 11 sec.

https://youtu.be/NlidB40aoTI

 

[mmccord]

To clarify, "Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year." means a ramp up to about 2,000 delivered per week at the end of the year, not 100,000 delivered for all of 2016.

But the year they are talking about is 2015. We are in 2016 now, so 2000 delivered per week starting at the end of 2015 should put us at or above 100k for 2016.

 

[jesselivenomore]

The market is so strange. Guide to 80,000 and deliver 82,000 and the sp will be higher than if you guide to 100,000 and deliver 98,000

This isn't true. More like:

Guide to 80k and the stock will trade at 220. Let's say it appreciates to 260 by the end of the year, deliver 82k and it trades to 280.
Guide to 100k and the stock will pop to 280. Appreciates to 350 by the end of the year, deliver 98k and it drops to 330.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Remember the days when analysts were skeptical about Tesla's ability to sell 12,000 Model S annually?

 

[green1]

Remember the days when analysts were skeptical about Tesla's ability to sell 12,000 Model S annually?

some still are...

 

[SebastianR]

some still are...

Indeed! I dug out an old presentation from 2012 stating that Model S will sell about 20k per year for all the world annually... And I know that was looked as incredibly optimistic...

On a separate note: I'm all of a sudden not feeling so "outlandish" for my +93k bet in the delivery competition.

 

[Benz]

"And we will approximately double again this year."

That means up to a certain substantial % (say at least by 70%(?), and that would already be a very good achievement), but most certainly not by 100%.

 

[WarpedOne]

If they only repeat 2015 sales of S and only sell back-ordered X they will be at 80k sold vehicles in 2016, oz 60% growth.
One must then also explain why they wont sell more S in 2016 than 2015 and why there won't be any new orderers for X in 2016.

S alone saw 31600 -> 50366 (59%) growth in 2015. This probably won't be repeated in 2016 for many reasons but I still expect some growth of S sales. Not everyone wants a CUV and not everyone prefers an X-like CUV. Say 30% growth of S, 65k sold.
And I also expect another 20k orders for X, in total 50k orders. The sum is already over 100% growth.

So, 100% growth in 2016 is thus very probably, dependent mainly on supply chain performance. In 2016 is a new situation for tesla, they have enetered a new market, that is bigger than sedan market.

 

[Benz]

If they only repeat 2015 sales of S and only sell back-ordered X they will be at 80k sold vehicles in 2016, oz 60% growth.
One must then also explain why they wont sell more S in 2016 than 2015 and why there won't be any new orderers for X in 2016.

S alone saw 31600 -> 50366 (59%) growth in 2015. This probably won't be repeated in 2016 for many reasons but I still expect some growth of S sales. Not everyone wants a CUV and not everyone prefers an X-like CUV. Say 30% growth of S, 65k sold.
And I also expect another 20k orders for X, in total 50k orders. The sum is already over 100% growth.

So, 100% growth in 2016 is thus very probably, dependent mainly on supply chain performance. In 2016 is a new situation for tesla, they have enetered a new market, that is bigger than sedan market.

The maximum production capacity per week is 2,000 vehicles (S+X).

In Q4 2015 the average weekly production rate was about 1,250.

In 2016 the average weekly production rate will steadily increase to about 1,800 (S+X).

The question is how fast they will be able to ramp up the average weekly production rate of the Tesla Model X in 2016.