Did Elon just say that they will build close to 100.000 cars this year?

[electracity]

Elon doesn't want Tesla only sell 500k in 2020, I don't either. But 500k is only what one gigafactory can support. To go beyond 500k, there must be additional gigafactories built and running before 2020. So far, there's nothing indicating this, expect the wish of selling more than 500k.

It is obvious now that that Tesla can build quite a few cars with zero gigafactory. Considering the apparent lack of construction at the gigafactory, and Panasonic statement of "waiting for demand", no one seems to be in a particular rush to build cells in Nevada. Price/cost looks like the key metric this decade, not the issue of getting enough cells.

I suspect the true benefit of the gigafactory this decade will be for Tesla to claim a decent margin on the model 3 by moving battery cell costs into capital expenditures, and therefore lowering cost of good sold. Not a bad plan, really.

Is Panasonic's capital investment in the gigafactory showing up on Tesla's balance sheet? If not, Panasonic is not wholly "investing in Tesla". It's a joint venture that simply is not formed around a seperate corporation.

 

[Fallenone]

Yes they can produce 100k a year without the giga, but they need the giga to go to 500k. That's the primary reason why they want to build it in the first place and they have reiterated this numerous times. Current worldwide battery production can't support 500k a year, that's a fact. And of course giga should be able to bring down the cost of battery too. But it is a must for the mass production of model 3.

It is obvious now that that Tesla can build quite a few cars with zero gigafactory. Considering the apparent lack of construction at the gigafactory, and Panasonic statement of "waiting for demand", no one seems to be in a particular rush to build cells in Nevada. Price/cost looks like the key metric this decade, not the issue of getting enough cells.

I suspect the true benefit of the gigafactory this decade will be for Tesla to claim a decent margin on the model 3 by moving battery cell costs into capital expenditures, and therefore lowering cost of good sold. Not a bad plan, really.

Is Panasonic's capital investment in the gigafactory showing up on Tesla's balance sheet? If not, Panasonic is not wholly "investing in Tesla". It's a joint venture that simply is not formed around a seperate corporation.

 

[dhanson865]

Doubling the volume every year is not realistic. Do you really think it is? If so, what do you base that on? To me, it seems you use those numbers because they are mathematically beautiful, not because it is what is likely to happen. I think a more modest unit growth in the 40%-50% range and higher ASP is much more likely to happen up to 2020.

I'd expect doubling to be realistic until they exceed the 400,000-500,000 level and have to expand manufacturing facilities beyond Fremont.

Peak production at the 370 acre facility on the outskirts of Silicon Valley topped 400,000 cars and trucks in 2005

Who knows how many they can produce with the advances with robotics but at some level they'll have to add additional production facilities and I'd assume they'd spread them around the world for disaster recover / business continuity / distribution time/ distribution cost purposes