Did Tesla lose focus by making the Model 3 an autonomous car instead of a great EV?

[calisnow]

@calisnow Audi is said to get Level 3 in their new Audi A8 introduction, this year. It is speed limited at a top speed

For a second you had me excited and hopeful - the A8 is a great car. But everything I just looked up said the system is limited to 37 mph. That's useless in any situation other than crawling in rush hour. Try again next year.

... their real effort is the next system. But make no mistake, these new systems are coming

Then when they show up let's compare again to whatever Tesla is slinging at the time - which will undoubtedly be more luxurious interiors than exist now. Interiors are the easy part. AI is the hard part and Tesla is ahead on that.

...And Audi is the one coming out with an Audi e-tron quattro in 2018, so the expectation that it might feature the next iteration of Audi's self-driving system is quite plausible.

Plausible yes.

Once there is sufficient parity on the battery, other features of the car will be far more individually valued. If Tesla only caters to a very limited set of those...

Yes and at that point there will be real competition and this convo will be moot. There's also no indication that Tesla is only catering to a limited set of priorities. The indication we actually have is Tesla has iterated its seats 3 times in 5 years, has continually added creature comforts to the Model S cabin and has recently hired a rock star interior designer from Volvo. Oh - and they went back and sucked on the milky bosom of the capital markets for another $1B+ raise - you think none of that money is going toward the next gen S development?

The other problem with large battery competitor EV's is long distance travel. I'm spoiled by the supercharger network. If Audi is HUMBLE enough to make a deal with Tesla and their autonomy is on par - I might consider an e-tron. If Audi, however, tells me to make my own way with a patchwork of high speed 3rd party chargers - they won't be getting $100K from me.

 

[AustinPowers]

You live in GERMANY bro. You live in FRANKFURT. This is not an insult. On the contrary I have nothing but respect for the German mindset - for the lane discipline of German drivers. The way they take driving seriously, and strive for excellence in their engineering. Germany has an illustrious automotive history that will never be forgotten by those of us old enough to remember its obsession with quality. God - the Phaeton!! The W140 S Class!!! The E39 5 series! The E36 3 series! The world will not see their likes again. But their time has passed and the nexus of what matters in a car has inexorably shifted.

I don't live in Frankfurt, only in the vicinity, thank god. I only wrote Frankfurt in my profile because no one would know the place where I live.
Anyway, I think - and the comments in this very thread seem to agree with me, that this might me a USA versus Europe thing.
Most of the critical comments come from European members, who indeed seem to have different priorities when it comes to cars. Plus, we might be more cautious when it comes to new tech and not as willing to readily and enthusiastically embrace everything the industry throws at us telling us it is "the future".
You talk about young people not caring about car culture. That again might be an effect in the US, but over here there is no indication this will hapen anytime soon. Especially not in Germany, where car madness seems built into the genes.

I guess if Tesla was a well known manufacturer with products that were financially accessible for a wide range of people, it could get a cult following as large as that for say the BMW 3-series or the Golf GTI community. But as Tesla products are luxury cars, that will not happen soon. Even the Model 3 will not change that. It might start at 35K USD over at your end, perhaps with subsidies even below 30K, but thanks to import duties, exchange rates etc., I would bet it won't start below 40K Euro over here for the bare minimum, with an average selling price including a few options perhaps in the low to mid 50s. That's still more than twice the average new car selling price over here and way beyond the reach of that young generation you talked about.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

For a second you had me excited and hopeful - the A8 is a great car. But everything I just looked up said the system is limited to 37 mph. That's useless in any situation other than crawling in rush hour. Try again next year.

Still, if it really allows you to read a newspaper... that is beyond what Tesla is showing so far. We shall see what the situation is when the Audi A8 actually ships. I readily concede Tesla's more aggressive software update strategy is one of their biggest upsides at the moment as it allows for a rare level of future-proofing. Though nothins is stopping Audi from updating their system via the service network if they want to, but we can not count on that, so an upside for Tesla of course (and Tesla has wireless updates).

Then when they show up let's compare again to whatever Tesla is slinging at the time - which will undoubtedly be more luxurious interiors than exist now. Interiors are the easy part. AI is the hard part and Tesla is ahead on that.

It is a good question: is Tesla really ahead on AI? I am not sure. I agree they are shipping the most aggressive and future-proofed solution, but as far as AI development goes, I would not rule out the VW consortium. They have been working at it long and hard. As has Volvo. It is possible Tesla's more agile method gets them "there" faster, but it is not guaranteed - nor guaranteed that Tesla is ahead at this moment...

I mean, AP2 is not really much to write home about.

I agree Tesla has time to improve their interiors before the competition arrives. Maybe they will. For their sake, I would hope so.

Yes and at that point there will be real competition and this convo will be moot. There's also no indication that Tesla is only catering to a limited set of priorities. The indication we actually have is Tesla has iterated its seats 3 times in 5 years, has continually added creature comforts to the Model S cabin and has recently hired a rock star interior designer from Volvo.

I would agree with you, had Tesla really showed solid progress on the interior front. But as Model X five-seater fiasco and the ventilated seats pullback and the Toyota-like packing of interior options have shown, in some ways Tesla has almost regressed in the past couple of years or pretty much stalled on their interior progress. The three seating changes are quite abortive efforts as well, compared to the magnificent seating systems the competition has.

I am not sure Tesla has shown capability to excecute on the interior yet. They are so far behind on that, it is not really as excusable any more as it was a couple of years ago.

I share the hope that the Volvo guy will revolutionize Tesla's interiors. It is possible.

The other problem with large battery competitor EV's is long distance travel. I'm spoiled by the supercharger network. If Audi is HUMBLE enough to make a deal with Tesla and their autonomy is on par - I might consider an e-tron. If Audi, however, tells me to make my own way with a patchwork of high speed 3rd party chargers - they won't be getting $100K from me.

I agree there is a segment of buyers for whom long-range chargin is important, and Tesla currenly is the best of the bunch in many parts of world, but IMO the greatest benefit of an EV at this time is the home/work charging scenario. Every other scenario, even with the Superchargers, is a pain in the neck compared to driving an ICE. Slow and cumbersome. But the home/work charging scenario actually improves life quality driving-wise, as it lessens the need for stops.

Many of those who habitually drive long-range will choose non-EV anyway for the time being. Many who do it occasionally, may have a second car ICE... I can see plenty of market for an EV even without Supercharging, as long as the battery is large enough to support the everyday scenario without having to charge every day or without detours/unexpected things detracting too much.

But sure, in many parts of the world, the Superchargers certainly are an upside for Tesla. No doubt.

 

[calisnow]

@AnxietyRanger - I'll concede a major point on the seats. BMW and Benz's top range seats are amazing and have been for a long time. They do make a difference in terms of comfort on long drives. Tesla needs to improve there. The new Tesla premium seats are still not as good as the "comfort seats" with articulating back I had in a 540i almost 20 years ago.

 

[calisnow]

More musings about Germany and Sweden - the primary brand value of BMW, MBZ and Volvo has gone out the window. There MUST be a lot of moments of existential angst happening among German and Swedish execs right now.

• BMW - handling superior to the rest of the world. In a world of autonomous cars this is now irrelevant.
• MBZ - Durability at the top of the chain. In a world of EV's with few moving parts - this is now irrelevant.
• Volvo - Crash safety superior to the rest of the world. In a world of autonomous cars crash rates drop 90+% due to software/cpu/sensor suites that are available now - and will cost only a few dollars in less than 5 years. You see insecurity ALREADY out of Volvo - an engineer saying AP 1 is an "unsupervised" toy - and then we see AP 1 reduces crashes 40%.

There is a very real existential crisis going on with European auto. In addition to the entire mission statement of these brands being tossed in the garbage - the franchised dealer networks are another problem. Can they survive in a world of EV's which require little service? How much longer will premium buyers tolerate going to a service center for updates? Yet how will franchised dealers learn to tolerate direct-from-mothership updates to customers that remove the dealer from the loop?

 

[calisnow]

@AnxietyRanger - on the luxury interior aspect. Musk says S/X switch to 2170 cells before 2017 close. Another poster here calculates that will save over 280 lbs (140+ kilos) for the same kwhr in the 100 kwhr battery. Musk also says Tesla gets - what - 35% cost reduction?

So there you go - the money and the weight savings to increase the luxury materials and the NVH of the interior - and they already hired the designer.

 

[calisnow]

To those who say "Look to Germany" for the EV future - I say - look to Lucid Motors. This is further indication that Germany is out of touch, when the most tangible competition for Tesla is yet another California based startup. The Air is the car that MBZ, BMW and Audi - SHOULD be showing us. It addresses all of the Model S's weak points - and it isn't just a concept car. So why aren't they? Lucid has $130M in funding, a finalized design and a crack executive team, including the Model S's original designer. All the Germans can do is pray nobody injects Lucid with a few billion - which seems likely to happen. @AnxietyRanger - right now, looking to what could make me defect in 24 months from Tesla - Lucid is by far the sexiest option.

 

[nativewolf]

What speculation? Elon has confirmed that a lot of what he promised at Reveal Part 1 will not happen as he had made everyone believe:

- fully loaded versions first? Nope
- production interior different? Nope
- spaceship like controls? Nope
- HUD (i.e. new consumer facing tech)? Nope

There's no fear needed. Anger is what I feel very much now, and a damn lot of it.
I can picture the reactions of all the people I tried to excite for a Model 3 as well over here. They will all go "see, we told you so. Why did you bother with Tesla in the first place".
And the German sales numbers will stay as low as they have been, which as a TSLA stockholder makes me even more angry, as it would have been so great to beat our local carmakers on their home soil with a great BEV for the "masses". Now people will wait for the local offerings, which they still have more trust in (VW scandal notwithstanding). That's what makes me angry the most!

So your issues is that's the 3 is not going to move forward by looking backwards (typical engineering practice)? Good. Cars are going to be autonomous-very very soon. Really if most had the money they'd get a chauffeur and do something other than drive because driving is a manufactured occupation created by transient and incomplete technical innovation- it serves no purpose. Driving is like writing/sending letters, the point of the letter was to communicate not to send letters. The reason we had to send letters was that the other person was not next door so we could not speak to them directly or we wanted a record. We have replaced letters with cell phones, txt, and emails and have a better richer communication experience. The flip side is that we don't spend days selecting stationary, pens, inks, blotters, sand, etc. Those were all very real industries in and of themselves that still exist but...don't matter.

Germans make a certain driving experience. But that's not really going to be very relevant in 10 years and good on Tesla for pushing forward. If the car manufactures like Merc and Beamer can't innovate then they'll be left behind.

 

[calisnow]

So your issues is that's the 3 is not going to move forward by looking backwards (typical engineering practice)? Good. Cars are going to be autonomous-very very soon. Really if most had the money they'd get a chauffeur and do something other than drive because driving is a manufactured occupation created by transient and incomplete technical innovation- it serves no purpose...Germans make a certain driving experience. But that's not really going to be very relevant in 10 years and good on Tesla for pushing forward.

Best post on this entire thread. You said it better than I did. EXACTLY.

 

[calisnow]

Further thoughts on Lucid's odds of success - Tesla has blazed the trail and done the hard work. Tesla has destroyed the idea that consumers put more trust in legacy automakers than startups. Tesla has proven that EV's can be sexy. Tesla has shown the world that an automotive startup can succeed (something thought impossible by many even 3 years ago, a couple years into the Model S's life. Notice even famous Tesla FUD spreader Bertel Schmitt of Forbes has gone oddly quiet lately - and the media FUD spreaders seem to be finally losing steam). And Tesla has shown that the "desire" factor of legacy luxury makers can be rendered impotent frighteningly fast. Finally - Tesla has already built out a nationwide rapid charge network and is inviting everyone to use it. The Germans are, thus far - too proud. But a scrappy startup like Lucid might not be.

If Lucid can execute? It will be far easier for them to get a foothold than it was for Tesla.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@calisnow Just as a mid-conversation comment: A good, mature discussion with nice progression of mutual understanding and entertaining of ideas. Thank you. I appreciate it. I wish more Internet conversations were like this. I will get back to the thick of things later.

 

[calisnow]

@calisnow Just as a mid-conversation comment: A good, mature discussion with nice progression of mutual understanding and entertaining of ideas. Thank you. I appreciate it. I wish more Internet conversations were like this. I will get back to the thick of things later.

You're welcome - and I agree, the feeling is mutual. I should get back to month end paperwork but this is far more fun. Talk later.

 

[Reciprocity]

Honestly, Autonomous is everything. When combined with EV batteries the size that Tesla is building, it means the eventual end of car ownership for most people. Whichever company pulls off both Autonomous and EVs with batteries good enough, will reap the most rewards.

If I just look at my commute and I used Uber everyday, it would probably cost me about $40 a day. I work from home one day a week so $160 per week or 18 working days a month for $720/mo. That seems high, but if you look at price to purchase a new $35k car, the monthly payment + insurance is around $550 and a lease is $470ish including scheduled maintenance ($750/36mo). That is cheaper then $720 a month for Uber for sure. But what happens then you remove the driver, remove Uber and remove the cost for gas. If you figure Uber takes 20%, Car is 20% and the driver is the other 60%. You Are now down to $8 per day, plus some profit for the owner so $16. My commute on this new theoretical network would be only $288 a month (18 days * $16 a day). I don't have to pay for parking, no tolls, I don't have to charge anything and I can use my garage for something else. That just covers my commute, but I have another $182 ($470-$288) a month for any other trips. Trips could be cheaper if you pool or use some form of autonomous mass transit for parts of your trip. You can't achieve the proper economies with ICE vehicles, the fuel cost is just to great, especially when combined with next gen Solar powered Supercharges.

For people with longer communities, they could either buy and autonomous car or pay a bit extra for the convenience and comfort of commuting on this network. At the very least, I see 2 car families becoming 1 car families in the next 5-10 years at most. This is very bad news for Ford, GM and anyone else who doesn't build long range EVs. Lyft and Uber will be gone, unless GM does make an upgraded Bolt with full Autonomy to save Lyft.

Everyone has to remember what Elon's real goals are. His goal is not make a car with a HUD. It is to remove all reliance on fossil fuels by electrifying transportation and running the grid from Sun/Batteries. He actually does not care if he sells everyone an electric car. He would be more then happy if GM would sell a million electric cars a year and Ford and anyone else. He would be just as happy if the demand for cars dropped in half because of this new ride sharing network. In that way, he is much different then most CEOs that only car about expanding their market share at all costs. He just does not care about the same things most people do. Take Mars as an example. He is not just trying to get to Mars because its some great challenge. He is laterally trying to create a backup of the human race on Mars. He thinks it will take a million people, transplanted to mars, to create a backup that can thrive. Anything less then that for SpaceX would be considered failure. Those two main objectives will shape everything he does.

I get how Open AI fits into those objectives, but I cant quite figure out how tunnels do. They do contribute to the efficiency of transport, but it seems like a brute force solution and not as elegant as sun powered cars. It could just be that Elon hates traffic as much as he loves the human race.

 

[calisnow]

...we might be more cautious...

Off topic - are you German? Your English is not just structurally perfect - it reads native. It isn't - an academically, university style of perfect English - it's an English that sounds like a native speaker. If it isn't your first tongue you've done an incredible job learning to write it as though it is.

 

[AustinPowers]

More musings about Germany and Sweden - the primary brand value of BMW, MBZ and Volvo has gone out the window. There MUST be a lot of moments of existential angst happening among German and Swedish execs right now.

• BMW - handling superior to the rest of the world. In a world of autonomous cars this is now irrelevant.
• MBZ - Durability at the top of the chain. In a world of EV's with few moving parts - this is now irrelevant.
• Volvo - Crash safety superior to the rest of the world. In a world of autonomous cars crash rates drop 90+% due to software/cpu/sensor suites that are available now - and will cost only a few dollars in less than 5 years. You see insecurity ALREADY out of Volvo - an engineer saying AP 1 is an "unsupervised" toy - and then we see AP 1 reduces crashes 40%.

There is a very real existential crisis going on with European auto. In addition to the entire mission statement of these brands being tossed in the garbage - the franchised dealer networks are another problem. Can they survive in a world of EV's which require little service? How much longer will premium buyers tolerate going to a service center for updates? Yet how will franchised dealers learn to tolerate direct-from-mothership updates to customers that remove the dealer from the loop?

A while back I would have agreed with you, but having experienced the latest Tesla has to offer I had to revise what I had thought.
The Model S is a great car, no doubt about it, especially from such a small company with no prior experience in luxury cars whatsoever.
But it is still full of flaws, and none of them have really been adressed since launch. Only irrelevant stuff like AP has seen any kind of development.

That's your fundamental misunderstanding of cars obviously, going by your comments about the brand values.

1. handling will be irrelevant with autonomous driving? Really? How so? What has autonomy to do with handling?
2. Durability will be irrelevant? So you won't mind of BEV breaks down because of some fault? Interesting. Incidently, the Model S's of the owners I know have spent more time at the service centers than all the ICE cars I have driven in my whole life combined. So much for reliability. And in addition, the annual cost for Tesla service is more than what I have to spend on my BMW in five years - at an official dealership mind you!
3. Crash safety is always relevant, even with full autonomy. No system is 100% perfect, and in no time in my life will all cars on the road be autonomous, hence there will always be the possibility for accidents.

There doesn't seem to be an "existential crisis with European auto". On the contrary, from what one can read from the latest annual sales reports, especially the German carmakers can celebrate on record year after another. Doesn't look like crisis to me. The only thing that might be in crisis quite soon is the Diesel engine in cars, but fortunately there are enough alternatives, classic as well as ecological.

Really if most had the money they'd get a chauffeur and do something other than drive because driving is a manufactured occupation created by transient and incomplete technical innovation- it serves no purpose.

If that were the case, why Ludicrous mode?
Many people love driving, whether on roads or on the track. There are at least dozens of millions of car fanatics around the world, none of which would chose to be driven around instead.
Sure, having to drive to and from work every day is one situation for which many people would love to be chauffeured. Then again, that's what public transport is so great at.

 

[AustinPowers]

[

Off topic - are you German? Your English is not just structurally perfect - it reads native. It isn't - an academically, university style of perfect English - it's an English that sounds like a native speaker. If it isn't your first tongue you've done an incredible job learning to write it as though it is.

Thank you. Started a private conversation to keep this thread (more or less) on topic.

 

[flamingoezz]

I held out hope too after his first comment about 1 screen, but he distinctly said 1 display (again). hud is heads up DISPLAY. i really don't think he'd go through this great an effort to hide this feature. other manufacturers already do it so its not some great new invention.

Leaf
Focus
500e
Soul
fortwo
i-MiEV
etc., etc.

That's not really saying much.

Nope...no they don't. I've already got one foot out the door, just listening for tweets or announcements sway me back. If they keep the interior like this, I'm 100% out.

Does the mass market really want this?

View attachment 219809[/QUOTE]

 

[Electroman]

The Bolt will struggle because it looks like a cheap Chevy and it's priced like an A4. All the Model 3 has to do is be a car that people love to drive.

Oh.. Come on.. until just a year ago, Nissan was peddling the lowly 80 mile froggy looking Leaf for $30K plus change. At that time we were all complaning that for that price it should atleast have 200 miles range. Now we have a 230 mile range EV for approx the same price as a fully loaded 80 mile Leaf, but we still complain.

 

[Reciprocity]

The Bolt is a great car. Very much surprised how many positive things people have said about it. The problem is that its a compliance car and GM wont make that many. They just will not do it. No matter how much people might actually like them. Elon actually wants GM to sell a lot more those cars. It would help achieve his main goal but it would also help sell more solar/battery packs and expose a new group of owners to how much better electric is then ICE.

 

[Ulmo]

Then you'll enjoy this VR Model 3 test drive.

Great application of 3D video. It's also nice to know YouTube supports it. But, once again, we find that Tesla communicates poorly by having the reveal at night, and we can't really see much except darkness: black pants, black footwell, and pretty low resolution (new tech small wearable portable 3D video cameras must be in their early development stages with low memory and low resolution), and/or YouTube refuses to send it in full res (apparently either not believing in distributed storage (one of the flaws of the industrially centralized cloud design) or higher bandwidth (which many of us have so why limit?)). So, the result is, it looks really cramped in there, but I can't tell, because it was darker than hell.

---

That taxi tweet spoke volumes about the potential for this platform as a driver's car. OP is based on a reasonable assumption. But getting the price down probably led to sacrifices in both features and options that were not necessarily due to lack of focus, but compromise in cost and product positioning. That said, cost doesn't explain certain choices for driver info display - for which apparently an explanation from Tesla was forthcoming. We were waiting on that info. However, when recently addressed, quite close to production, got unexpected bad news which changed perception of Tesla's commitment.

I continually find it amazing that even in the communication vacuum which is standard for Tesla, the little data they do give and don't revisit often gets twisted and corrupted, causing a delusional group think of what might be going on, then when Tesla takes the next step in a continuous and often nominally consistent line, people fall over themselves to complain of how inconsistent it is even though it most likely is not, and all of this banterwither obscures actual inconsistencies and proper information, allowing the company to play fast and loose in a way that they wouldn't be able to if people didn't get all deluse about everything.

===

So your issues is that's the 3 is not going to move forward by looking backwards (typical engineering practice)? Good. Cars are going to be autonomous-very very soon. Really if most had the money they'd get a chauffeur and do something other than drive because driving is a manufactured occupation created by transient and incomplete technical innovation- it serves no purpose. Driving is like writing/sending letters, the point of the letter was to communicate not to send letters. The reason we had to send letters was that the other person was not next door so we could not speak to them directly or we wanted a record. We have replaced letters with cell phones, txt, and emails and have a better richer communication experience. The flip side is that we don't spend days selecting stationary, pens, inks, blotters, sand, etc. Those were all very real industries in and of themselves that still exist but...don't matter.

Germans make a certain driving experience. But that's not really going to be very relevant in 10 years and good on Tesla for pushing forward. If the car manufactures like Merc and Beamer can't innovate then they'll be left behind.

Very well said. There are those of us that in our Model S's (and X's) that are still forced to endure that "driving experience" wish they'd have put more effort into fulfilling some of the past adequately luxurious aspects of the German luxury brands, but meanwhile, in the future, that all changes. In that view, I look at Model 3 as a crossover -- it has a steering wheel and chairs that aren't yet known to swivel, but in the future, we'll have interiors designed to be occupied while in transit, not designed to operate the machine.

=======

I get how Open AI fits into those objectives, but I cant quite figure out how tunnels do. They do contribute to the efficiency of transport, but it seems like a brute force solution and not as elegant as sun powered cars. It could just be that Elon hates traffic as much as he loves the human race.

Since I liked the rest of your post, I'll take my stab at my guess to that piece: the current under-capacity road system sucks. It's not working as designed (rabid road diet (shoving local traffic onto freeways) and rabid anti-car taxation -- literally taking money meant for roads and spending it on importing cheaper people instead, double-exacerbating the problem (triple when you realize that commute distances are also longer and more roadway is used per person)). Any system that works as designed would be better (provided that the design is that it should work, which currently in California is the Great Debate (and I still say the design should be for it to work -- kind of the typ male - fem battle, a result of society reshaping to absorb the fem vote)).

Don't underestimate how much tunneling will allow Elon to:

• learn about Mars tunneling: making backup of human life
  
• Make roads that integrate with his transportation solutions, including cars: making clean transportation and $ for Mars thing
  
• enforce that tunnels will not be given the air cleanliness necessary to safely support pollution causing vehicles, although what I guess he's going to do is specify minimum necessary to support ICE cars - 1 small unit, so that it is technically illegal to allow ICE cars, but that the tunnels will still be safe: making clean transportation and $ for Mars thing
  
• hyperloop right of way options: making clean transportation and maybe also $ for Mars thing

I like toll roads. But I don't know if Elon likes toll roads. But imagine one view of the power this would bring: require a toll for the tunnel. He gets $. Also, require EV-only. He gets $ and clean transportation.

The problem with the $ aspect of tunnels is that they have been, in the past, a $ loss, not a $ gain; most privately owned toll roads couldn't compete. I'm not satisfied with answers to whether they were being unfairly impeded via various government controls, but history says private toll roads have some financial troubles. But, to this end, Elon's first approach to tunnel building is to speed it up, to make it more efficient, to make it less expensive, and if that works, then the toll road $ breakeven point might or might not be profitable. It's still a big question. But, that doesn't at all take away from the Mars and clean energy objectives that tunnels help enforce.