Did Tesla lose focus by making the Model 3 an autonomous car instead of a great EV?

[nativewolf]

Funny, over here it will be the opposite. The Bolt looks like a cross between a compact SUV and a minivan, two of the most successful segments in the car market. The Model 3 otoh looks like a sedan, one of the lowest selling segments in the market nowadays. When you look around over here, the majority of the car fleet is made up of

SUVs
station wagons
minivans
hatchbacks
coupes/sportbacks

Sedans are becoming more and more of a niche segment.



I have driven a Model S with AP 2.0, and tried it out. To me it might be the ultimate gimmick, but certainly no luxury. Especially as every car I have driven in the last five years had ACC and some also had active (emergency) braking. Nothing in the Tesla AP 2.0 was more "luxurious" or innovative than those others systems. I don't know anyone who cares the least about autonomous driving cars. On a list of priorities when buying a car, it ranks beneath coat hooks, well-lit trunks and other stuff that makes the day to day operation of a vehicle comfortable. AP is a nice-to-have, nothing more.

@Lukas99: thanks for your post, couldn't agree more. You managed to rationally describe what I couldn't because I was so pi**ed off.

Everyone cares about autonomous driving, it's why your countrymen in beamer, conti, bosch etc all have huge development centers in silicon valley. They know it is the future and it directly challenges the the single greatest differentiator of german cars, they are very nice driving machines. Japanese make nice, very reliable cars. I think it is going to be easier for the Japanese to adapt but frankly they have not had a great history of nimble development and still keep pushing this crazy hydrogen fuel cell crap 20 years later. Hard to kill a bad idea in Japan (ie analog HD tv).

 

[nativewolf]

Honestly, Autonomous is everything. When combined with EV batteries the size that Tesla is building, it means the eventual end of car ownership for most people. Whichever company pulls off both Autonomous and EVs with batteries good enough, will reap the most rewards.

If I just look at my commute and I used Uber everyday, it would probably cost me about $40 a day. I work from home one day a week so $160 per week or 18 working days a month for $720/mo. That seems high, but if you look at price to purchase a new $35k car, the monthly payment + insurance is around $550 and a lease is $470ish including scheduled maintenance ($750/36mo). That is cheaper then $720 a month for Uber for sure. But what happens then you remove the driver, remove Uber and remove the cost for gas. If you figure Uber takes 20%, Car is 20% and the driver is the other 60%. You Are now down to $8 per day, plus some profit for the owner so $16. My commute on this new theoretical network would be only $288 a month (18 days * $16 a day). I don't have to pay for parking, no tolls, I don't have to charge anything and I can use my garage for something else. That just covers my commute, but I have another $182 ($470-$288) a month for any other trips. Trips could be cheaper if you pool or use some form of autonomous mass transit for parts of your trip. You can't achieve the proper economies with ICE vehicles, the fuel cost is just to great, especially when combined with next gen Solar powered Supercharges.

For people with longer communities, they could either buy and autonomous car or pay a bit extra for the convenience and comfort of commuting on this network. At the very least, I see 2 car families becoming 1 car families in the next 5-10 years at most. This is very bad news for Ford, GM and anyone else who doesn't build long range EVs. Lyft and Uber will be gone, unless GM does make an upgraded Bolt with full Autonomy to save Lyft.

Everyone has to remember what Elon's real goals are. His goal is not make a car with a HUD. It is to remove all reliance on fossil fuels by electrifying transportation and running the grid from Sun/Batteries. He actually does not care if he sells everyone an electric car. He would be more then happy if GM would sell a million electric cars a year and Ford and anyone else. He would be just as happy if the demand for cars dropped in half because of this new ride sharing network. In that way, he is much different then most CEOs that only car about expanding their market share at all costs. He just does not care about the same things most people do. Take Mars as an example. He is not just trying to get to Mars because its some great challenge. He is laterally trying to create a backup of the human race on Mars. He thinks it will take a million people, transplanted to mars, to create a backup that can thrive. Anything less then that for SpaceX would be considered failure. Those two main objectives will shape everything he does.

I get how Open AI fits into those objectives, but I cant quite figure out how tunnels do. They do contribute to the efficiency of transport, but it seems like a brute force solution and not as elegant as sun powered cars. It could just be that Elon hates traffic as much as he loves the human race.

This is spot on. Fully autonomous electric cars are going to dramatically change transport. Once UBER goes fully autonomous I think they'll have even more success. Drivers hold them back, can lyft or others compete? Don't know. If I could use ride share for my commute for $8/day I'd have quite a good day.

So, getting the 3 ready to be actually autonomous is a sign of leadership.

 

[calisnow]

Oh.. Come on.. until just a year ago, Nissan was peddling the lowly 80 mile froggy looking Leaf for $30K plus change. At that time we were all complaning that for that price it should atleast have 200 miles range. Now we have a 230 mile range EV for approx the same price as a fully loaded 80 mile Leaf, but we still complain.

That's what we do around here.

 

[Foxhound199]

Now we have a 230 mile range EV for approx the same price as a fully loaded 80 mile Leaf, but we still complain.

I'm not saying it's a bad car, I'm saying it evokes the image of a bad car. Its design resembles Chevy's crappy subcompact, Sonic. The sonic evokes images of a long history of crappy Chevy subcompacts. If, in some bizarro world, Chevy had perfected autonomous driving technology that was miles ahead of Tesla, people would still take one look at the Bolt and feel all the negative associations of all the sonics, aveos, and metros they've come across in the past 20 years.

This is what I mean when I say Tesla's biggest advantage would to be make this a driver's car. Autonomous driving is amazing in how fast it's coming along, and is definitely the future. But you make it the future by first putting it in a car people want to DRIVE.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Shiiiiieeeessshhh! If it's this bad when no one outside of Tesla has driven the damn car I can only imagine what it's going to be like a year from now!

It might drive like a pig, but let's be honest with the huge advantages inherent in their EV design they'd almost have to try to screw it up. And don't forget they aren't GM, they screw this us and they are DONE! More people will be attracted to autonomous features than driving dynamics, as a car enthusiast that's painful to say but I know it's true- but FOR CRYING OUT LOUD THE TWO AREN'T MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE! Don't like the interior? I never really like the buttony, plasticy, interior of my E36 M3 but the car was brilliant in so many other ways I didn't really care. That's a personal decision you'll have to settle on for yourself.

I think this wait is getting to all of us LOL!

Most race cars I've been in when they add gauges they put them high and in the center. Ponder that for a second.............

Now besides being different, what's the disaster in having information high and in the center of a car where all you really need to see at a glance is battery level and speed?

I'm waiting for someone to come along and start bitching they don't get to put gas in it and since they got to do that with all their other cars................

 

[Merrill]

If this is a mass market car it needs to be nice looking both inside and out have good range and be reliable. I'm all for the lastest technology but wonder how many buyers in this price point car all that much about it being fully autonomous.

 

[anonim1979]

What speculation? Elon has confirmed that a lot of what he promised at Reveal Part 1 will not happen as he had made everyone believe:

- fully loaded versions first? Nope
- production interior different? Nope
- spaceship like controls? Nope
- HUD (i.e. new consumer facing tech)? Nope

Besides what was already answered by Did Tesla lose focus by making the Model 3 an autonomous car instead of a great EV?

Let's check what was said during presentation rides?

Q: No instrument cluster?
A (abridged): No instrument cluster. No major changes. What you see in this engineering prototypes will be in production models. We don't have time.

At 1 minute mark.

 

[Ulmo]

The problem with the $ aspect of tunnels is that they have been, in the past, a $ loss, not a $ gain; most privately owned toll roads couldn't compete. I'm not satisfied with answers to whether they were being unfairly impeded via various government controls, but history says private toll roads have some financial troubles. But, to this end, Elon's first approach to tunnel building is to speed it up, to make it more efficient, to make it less expensive, and if that works, then the toll road $ breakeven point might or might not be profitable. It's still a big question. But, that doesn't at all take away from the Mars and clean energy objectives that tunnels help enforce.

Innovating digging is a huge advantage in everything Elon's doing. He's mining for materials to make cars, spaceships, fuel, batteries, solar cells, solar panels and shingles here on Earth and in the future in a huge way for most of those things and many more things on Mars. He literally gave a presentation*** saying he wants to use materials on Mars when his ships get there. I was reading about that last night, and there's enough water on Mars "near the surface" (4TAF)* to supply California for 100,000 years at our 2004 use rate (40MAF)**, but a great deal of it is frozen under ground. I imagine most the materials needed on Mars are underground. And, while that's being obtained, they can built habitats underground, too, as a less expensive structural element to homo-sapien version 2017AD livable space.

* From WikiPedia biblio: Christensen, P. R. (2006). "Water at the Poles and in Permafrost Regions of Mars". GeoScienceWorld Elements. 3 (2): 151–155.
** From WikiPedia biblio: Jenkins, Marion W.; Lund, Jay R.; Howitt, Richard E.; Draper, Andrew J.; Msangi, Siwa M.; Tanaka, Stacy K.; Ritzema, Randall S.; Marques, Guilherme F. (2004). "Optimization of California's Water Supply System: Results and Insights". Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 130 (4). pp. 271–80. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:4(271).
***

 

[nativewolf]

A while back I would have agreed with you, but having experienced the latest Tesla has to offer I had to revise what I had thought.
The Model S is a great car, no doubt about it, especially from such a small company with no prior experience in luxury cars whatsoever.
But it is still full of flaws, and none of them have really been adressed since launch. Only irrelevant stuff like AP has seen any kind of development.

That's your fundamental misunderstanding of cars obviously, going by your comments about the brand values.

1. handling will be irrelevant with autonomous driving? Really? How so? What has autonomy to do with handling?
2. Durability will be irrelevant? So you won't mind of BEV breaks down because of some fault? Interesting. Incidently, the Model S's of the owners I know have spent more time at the service centers than all the ICE cars I have driven in my whole life combined. So much for reliability. And in addition, the annual cost for Tesla service is more than what I have to spend on my BMW in five years - at an official dealership mind you!
3. Crash safety is always relevant, even with full autonomy. No system is 100% perfect, and in no time in my life will all cars on the road be autonomous, hence there will always be the possibility for accidents.

There doesn't seem to be an "existential crisis with European auto". On the contrary, from what one can read from the latest annual sales reports, especially the German carmakers can celebrate on record year after another. Doesn't look like crisis to me. The only thing that might be in crisis quite soon is the Diesel engine in cars, but fortunately there are enough alternatives, classic as well as ecological.



If that were the case, why Ludicrous mode?
Many people love driving, whether on roads or on the track. There are at least dozens of millions of car fanatics around the world, none of which would chose to be driven around instead.
Sure, having to drive to and from work every day is one situation for which many people would love to be chauffeured. Then again, that's what public transport is so great at.

Ludicrous creates brand, it's fun. If you are a "driver" than that's the thing for you, nothing beats it. If you just want a clean vehicle you probably don't care about driving and that won't be appealing. I'd never buy a car with that much power, I have no use for it. If you want a sporty driving car for a weekend, you can rent one. Rent a cadillac one day, a Porsche the next weekend. I get fun and I get branding. I see why they are doing it but that will never create mass market change in human transport. Autonomous electric cars will do that.

 

[Reciprocity]

Since I liked the rest of your post, I'll take my stab at my guess to that piece: the current under-capacity road system sucks. It's not working as designed (rabid road diet (shoving local traffic onto freeways) and rabid anti-car taxation -- literally taking money meant for roads and spending it on importing cheaper people instead, double-exacerbating the problem (triple when you realize that commute distances are also longer and more roadway is used per person)). Any system that works as designed would be better (provided that the design is that it should work, which currently in California is the Great Debate (and I still say the design should be for it to work -- kind of the typ male - fem battle, a result of society reshaping to absorb the fem vote)).

But what happens when there are half as many cars on the roads? I don't actually believe this will happen because if you make transportation for available, it will get used more. This will offset the efficiency gained by autonomous car pooling.

Clogged roads certainly kill the efficiency of all types of transportation. Maybe Elon figures it will take longer to replace the billion cars, trucks, buses and semi-trucks on the roads today and that the tunnels will help alleviate some of dirty inefficiency of ICE vehicles. Since they will be in tunnels, maybe there is also a chance they could integrate some kind of carbon capture for exhaust fumes.

 

[nativewolf]

But what happens when there are half as many cars on the roads? I don't actually believe this will happen because if you make transportation for available, it will get used more. This will offset the efficiency gained by autonomous car pooling.

Clogged roads certainly kill the efficiency of all types of transportation. Maybe Elon figures it will take longer to replace the billion cars, trucks, buses and semi-trucks on the roads today and that the tunnels will help alleviate some of dirty inefficiency of ICE vehicles. Since they will be in tunnels, maybe there is also a chance they could integrate some kind of carbon capture for exhaust fumes.

Tunnels would also make urban cities more livable. Traffic would not clog streets and walking would be better. Case in point is Tysons Corner VA. That area is screaming for all the infastructure to move underground. Instead...it is becoming a planning version of a classic horror flick.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tunnels would also make urban cities more livable. Traffic would not clog streets and walking would be better. Case in point is Tysons Corner VA. That area is screaming for all the infastructure to move underground. Instead...it is becoming a planning version of a classic horror flick.

Elon does not care about making cities more livable, he has bigger fish to fry. Saving the planet, backing up humanity. Doesnt even have to be Mars really, it could be a different planet, but Mars is just the best candidate.

Edit: Didnt mean to say Elon didnt care, just that he sees bigger issues and more at stake.

Here is a great article on the Mars subject:

How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars - Wait But Why

 

[Skotty]

Perhaps a fairer question is "Has Tesla's emphasis on autonomous driving diminished its primary mission".

We don't know the quality of the model 3. But Tesla's stumble on the model X did correspond with their rise of interest in autonomous driving.

I thought this at first, but when I realized how popular the autonomous driving concept was, and when you take into consideration that being a successful business is part of the primary mission (because it has to be), then it makes sense.

I am concerned that the final interior may be too foreign for a lot of people to accept. But I think the exterior is beautiful, and hopefully things like that will help sell it to ipad-on-a-stick skeptics.

 

[Reciprocity]

I am concerned that the final interior may be too foreign for a lot of people to accept. But I think the exterior is beautiful, and hopefully things like that will help sell it to ipad-on-a-stick skeptics.

I am not the first to state the similarities, but the iPhone is completely foreign to people at the time it came out. No physical keyboard, it will never work!

Actually what made the iPhone truly work was the app store, which did not exist for sometime after the first iPhone came out. I feel the same way about Autonomous+EV. Its the perfect storm of life changing tech. You knew iPhone had succeeded when your 70 year old grandfather could use it with ease and his VCR was still blinking 12:00.

I doubted the iPhone myself, but its truly changed the world.

 

[nativewolf]

Elon does not care about making cities more livable, he has bigger fish to fry. Saving the planet, backing up humanity. Doesnt even have to be Mars really, it could be a different planet, but Mars is just the best candidate.

Edit: Didnt mean to say Elon didnt care, just that he sees bigger issues and more at stake.

Here is a great article on the Mars subject:

How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars - Wait But Why

Well I guess he cares somewhat or he would not have started the boring company, eh. He said he hated being stuck in traffic but maybe is it really about boring into mars. Who knows. I do know that he started a company to make tunnels.... I don't actually know much more.

 

[Reciprocity]

Well I guess he cares somewhat or he would not have started the boring company, eh. He said he hated being stuck in traffic but maybe is it really about boring into mars. Who knows. I do know that he started a company to make tunnels.... I don't actually know much more.

That is basically my point. I dont know why Elon is doing tunnels as it does not fit into saving the planet or backing up the human race. He is definitely doing tunnels. He also came up with the idea for hyperloop and decided to let someone else do that, which makes sense given the scope of the issues he is already tackling. I dont know know why he didnt do the same with Tunneling. Maybe he will give away the tunneling tech once he has figured it out.

 

[Candleflame]

Elon may have meant that with autonomy, we'll be spam-in-a-can like the Mercury or Vostok astronauts/cosmonauts

dang...

everyone was thinking this:

When the reality is this:

 

[calisnow]

My latest theory is something went wrong with the augmented reality development and it's taking too long. So it got sh*tcanned for launch.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

My latest theory is something went wrong with the augmented reality development and it's taking too long. So it got sh*tcanned for launch.

Quite possible.

There is also the mid-road option that it got canned for Model 3 only (for now) and Model S/X will get it sooner. Perhaps for volume availability or cost reasons or to keep Model 3 simpler for volume manufacturing.

 

[zenmaster]

Then worry about comparing M3's "next year" interior to BMW's "next year" interior - but for now compare it to what's available.

Are you kidding? My statement was completely relavent to the discussion. 1) There is nothing available now to buy from Tesla! 2) G20 features revealed 2nd half this year (maybe only 1 or 2 months after Tesla reveals its non prototype). It goes on sale next year before most Model 3 Rez holders get a car. Many if the elements included are already known like 80kg weight saving and full BEV compatibility. This platform is a direct competitor to the Model 3 according to Musk.