Dilemma: Buy EV now or wait for Model 3?

[Doug_G]

Will it, based on the latest rumor at the Alameda track the Model 3 test mule may already be running around.

Rumour versus track record. Hmm.

I'm a big supporter of Tesla but I'm realistic about the timeline to produce a major product like a new automotive platform. Even the Model X is taking longer than expected, and it is based on the Model S platform.

 

[wraithnot]

Charging stations are starting to pop up everywhere around me and where I work, reducing my anxiety about being stranded. The only thing that was holding me back at one point was one 100-mile round-trip drive a week to our L.A. office. But they recently installed a couple of fast-charging stations right across the street, and they've had some charging stations at my Orange County office for a while now.


I'm seriously tempted to get a Spark EV, either on a 3-year lease or a purchase, then get a Model 3 later when it comes out. But my current car is paid off, and if I can hold out for a few more years, I can get a Model 3. Anyone else feel conflicted about taking the plunge now or holding out?

We were in a similar situation. I'd suggest a 3-year lease on a plug-in that you like while you wait for the Model 3.


My wife kept borrowing my Model S when she needed the carpool sticker, but the plan was for her to keep her Acura until the Model 3 came out. But I kept driving by a BMW i3 up on a pedestal at our local BMW dealer and we took a test drive on a whim one weekend. We found the i3 surprisingly fun to drive and at least in certain color combos and trim levels the styling wasn't too objectionable, but the lease payments seemed way too high so we looked at all the other available plug in vehicles. We came pretty close to leasing a RAV4 EV, but by then the i3 lease got much more reasonable so we pulled the trigger in September and have been very happy with the decision. The styling, rear doors, and size won't work for everyone. But there are enough plug-ins on the market or scheduled to be released soon (eg. volt v2) that I'm sure you can find one that works for you (although I'd be careful about relying on non-Tesla fast charging for trips you take often since a single station being broken, in use, or ICEd will cause you some grief).


There is a good chance the model 3 won't be out by the time the lease is up. But at least the release date will be much more definite by then. And we can always take over the last year or two of someone else's lease on something we like at that point.

P.S. We never even considered leasing a car prior to this, but I think an EV with an 81 mile range will probably be obsolete in three years and thus I expect the resale value on our i3 BEV to be lower than the lease residual value.

 

[Park2670]

I gave in and leased a Volt. Its been great to have 80% EV and get a partial experience driving an electric car. The lease will be up in 2017 which is the iffy part. But I am glad to be driving a partial EV even if it is a Chevy. I say pick up a Volt to start the experience now and then turn it in for the Model 3. Thats what my plan is.

 

[tga]

Another option to consider is buying a used Model S, wait until the Model 3 comes out, and then trade up (or not, if you like the S). You'll take much less of a depreciation hit vs buying a new S, and have a nicer car than if you had bought a Leaf, Volt, etc. The downside is that your upfront cost will be ~2X, and future depreciation of the Model S isn't clear.

Case in point - there's an S60 with an asking price of $59,500 in the for sale section now.

 

[purplewalt]

Case in point - there's an S60 with an asking price of $59,500 in the for sale section now.

Talk about getting into the deep end of the pool...:biggrin:

Only negative for that specific car: it still has not had Supercharger enacted.
So that would be another $2,500 for it to be fully viable long range car.

 

[physicsfita]

FWIW, I'm the sort of person who drives his cars until repair costs start matching car payments -- I find that keeps total costs down while keeping a reliable ride for my long commute. My strategy will be to drive my Prius to that point, and at that time get a Model 3 if it's available and meets my use case or most likely a Volt if it's not. An added wrinkle for my case will be whether getting service in Michigan for a Tesla will be feasible by then.

 

[igotzzoom]

I know it's not a perfect analogy, but with tech gadgets, I'm somewhat of an early adopter, but tend to wait until a measurably more advanced/better model comes out. Case-in-point: I got a first-gen iPad 64GB 3G. Paid full-pop for it. But enjoyed it for quite a while. I kept it until the fifth-generation model came out. I know the iPad 6 is out now, but in my mind, it's not a generation more advanced than the one I have, just incremental improvements. In a similar vein, I held out for the iPhone 5 on Verizon, and only upgraded to the 6 because I was eligible for an upgrade. May wait 'til iPhone 8 comes out.

I've owned my car since spring '11, and currently have about 48,000 miles on it. I figure if I can hold out another 4-5 years, it should still have less than 100,000 miles on it. My premise is that any newer car, when decently maintained, will last that long. So worst-case, if it's 2020 before the Model 3 comes out, my car should still have less than 100k on it. Still might consider an EV in the meantime, but the short range combined with the currently inconsistent public charging infrastructure makes me a little nervous. Most days, my commute is about 25 miles round-trip, but sometimes it's 100. I'd rather have the confidence of being able to make a round trip on one charge, rather than having to hectically try to find a L2 or L3 charger on my lunch hour.

 

[Breezy]

Most days, my commute is about 25 miles round-trip, but sometimes it's 100. I'd rather have the confidence of being able to make a round trip on one charge, rather than having to hectically try to find a L2 or L3 charger on my lunch hour.

Sounds like a Volt would work well. I usually have a 30 mile RT but sometimes I have to go much further without much notice.

 

[StephenM]

I would also say get an EV sooner rather than later, though the timing of a 3-year lease will be tricky to coincide with the launch of the Model 3. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people who will be waiting for that car so it would be like hitting the lottery to get the first run (which could also be a little late because of Tesla launch tardiness problem).

 

[dhrivnak]

I've never heard an owner say they'd wished they waited for a later EV. But I have heard many say they wish they had gotten one sooner.

As an owner of 2 plug-ins now I agree, I will never go back to a non-plug car.

 

[MarkR]

I'm impressed with the reviews of the Volt and believe that the second generation Volt will be more impressive. I'd go with that to hold you over until the Gen III. I've my two Model Ss, but can't wait to see what Tesla will offer in 2017. The Model X, meh, looks like a pregnant MS.

 

[RobStark]

Rumour versus track record. Hmm.

I'm a big supporter of Tesla but I'm realistic about the timeline to produce a major product like a new automotive platform. Even the Model X is taking longer than expected, and it is based on the Model S platform.

This is based on the assumption that Tesla has learned nothing nor gained new capabilities as it has gone from a 3k employee company to a 10k employee company.

Model 3 will not have radically new features like AWD or Falcon Wing doors.

Elon has said they can not have Model 3 ready without batteries nor can they have the GF ready to go without the Model 3 to put them into. Either scenario is a massive waste of money. And GF is on schedule.

For the last two years a sale of a Model X would have meant one less Model S sale. Because of battery or other manufacturing constraints. Delaying Model X has not cost Tesla any marginal revenue. Delaying Model 3 would and potentially costing millions per day in idle Gigafactory employees and machinery.


to the OP. Assuming your car will last another 3 years I would wait. If you do lease I would just check out what are the options of extending the lease.

My guess is fully loaded Model 3s will get priority shipping and base Model 3 will get the lowest priority shipping.

 

[swaltner]

Back in July 2013, I was handling a similar dilemma. For me, the decision was answered by *purchasing* a new 2013 Leaf SV. I didn't want to deal with a lease expiring and being forced to do something different before the Model 3 was out, so I purchased. The Leaf is not my only car, so any range limitations are not a huge problem, since I can switch to other cars in my hybrid garage.. Due to the fueling costs difference between it and my pickup (the previous daily driver), the Leaf gets the priority of being driven whenever possible. All along, the Leaf was intended as a ~3 year ownership experiment and then purchasing a Model 3 after that. About all that has changed is that the plan is morphing into selling the Ariel Atom as well and going with a P85D instead.

Assuming you can deal with the limited range of a Leaf (think 20 mile round trip for work) for your daily driving, I'd likely get one of the ones coming off lease now. Just be sure to checkout the battery health and battery warranty status. If you've got a longer commute to work (40+ mile round trip, especially if it's mostly highway), I wouldn't be looking at a low-range EV, but rather a PHEV for your stopgap vehicle until the Model 3 and/or Bolt are/is released.

 

[alohates1a]

Another option to consider is buying a used Model S, wait until the Model 3 comes out, and then trade up (or not, if you like the S). You'll take much less of a depreciation hit vs buying a new S, and have a nicer car than if you had bought a Leaf, Volt, etc. The downside is that your upfront cost will be ~2X, and future depreciation of the Model S isn't clear.

Case in point - there's an S60 with an asking price of $59,500 in the for sale section now.

Should you decide to stretch it, you can likely find a S85 kwh in excellent condition, low milage, remaining warranty, non auto pilot hardware for $60-70 currently or within a few months with more folks selling off to get into a D configuration

Was also going to try and hold out for a Model 3 but ended up purchasing a S85 service loaner at end of Nov 14', with 7,000 miles, full warranty when Tesla was clearing out their service/demo units without auto pilot hardware- in as new condition but discounted to $71K+ CA tax and eligible for the $2500 CA clean air rebate and $7500 tax credit.

Good luck with your decision- regardless any EV is a good direction!

 

[igotzzoom]

Thanks for all the input. I have a friend that has a first-gen Volt and loves it, but he's retired, and generally just putts around town with it. He has taken it on some longer road trips, and enjoys the flexibility of having the range extender. As of now, I'm leaning toward keeping my current car until the Model 3 goes into production. Depending on the actual pricing when it comes out, I'd probably get the mid-grade trim, but I don't see myself spending more than $50,000 on it. I'm thinking realistically, it will probably be $45k. If that means a slightly longer wait until the "bread and butter" models are produced, that's fine.

 

[Cyclone]

Should you decide to stretch it, you can likely find a S85 kwh in excellent condition, low milage, remaining warranty, non auto pilot hardware for $60-70 currently or within a few months with more folks selling off to get into a D configuration

Was also going to try and hold out for a Model 3 but ended up purchasing a S85 service loaner at end of Nov 14', with 7,000 miles, full warranty when Tesla was clearing out their service/demo units without auto pilot hardware- in as new condition but discounted to $71K+ CA tax and eligible for the $2500 CA clean air rebate and $7500 tax credit.

Good luck with your decision- regardless any EV is a good direction!

If I could get the deal you did, I would buy in a heart beat! I am hoping that next month after my local service center opens up, I can make it happen. The other side of the issue is until that service center opens up, my closest service center is 3 hours away

 

[Doug_G]

This is based on the assumption that Tesla has learned nothing nor gained new capabilities as it has gone from a 3k employee company to a 10k employee company.

Increasing production rate by an order of magnitude introduces new challenges, which will tax those greater resources.

Engineering problems often can't be solved simply by throwing more people at them. Things take time.

 

[igotzzoom]

If I could pick up a used Model S for around $50k, then I might be tempted. But current MS prices are out of my budget right now.

 

[adiggs]

My input @igotzzoom - go EV now and revisit Gen 3 or a used Model S/X in a few years.

Lots of people have gotten a Volt and found they liked driving in EV mode so much, that they a) put lots of energy into only driving in EV mode in the volt and/or b) switch to a full BEV when the lease is over. There's a very good chance that a 3 year lease of <whatever> won't line up very neatly with your ability to buy a new Tesla in 3 years. I got onto the Model X reservation list 2.5 years ago thinking year or year and a half to car. Heh But I also went into that with my eyes open and figuring there would be a difference between the expectation at the time and what would actually happen.

So just go into with the idea that you're making your initial shift to driving electric, and there are a variety of plans you can go with in 3 years. If nothing else, the Model S will also be 3 years older, and that means you'll start seeing 5 and 6 year old used Model S's - I bet those will be getting down into the $40-50k range. In fact I've commented a number of times - I believe that the first Gen 3 / half-price-Model S cars that Tesla sells will actually be used Model S's, not the Gen 3 car. Let somebody else pay for all that depreciation, and then grab a well loved and used Model S for yourself!


Making the switch to driving electric will have a variety of impacts on your personal life. You might find that the experience of driving electric (any kind of electric) is so good that you won't go back (I know you've seen plenty of people saying more or less that).

If you don't already, you might find yourself becoming motivated to get solar panels up on your house. There's something very satisfying about knowing that you create more energy each year than you consume for personal transportation. I know it's hard to make it a direct connection, but it's the start of reducing your personal / family carbon / energy footprint. There's a psychic reward that's very satisfying (or at least, there is for me). Even here in OR where we get lousy sun compared to what you have available

It's more than a transportation choice.

 

[igotzzoom]

@adiggs...Good points. I know a lot of the members on here are true believers in the "EV at all costs." For most days of the week, a sub-100-mile range is not a big deal, but on one day of the week, it's the difference between making it home or not. I guess I'm a bit more of a pragmatist. In three years, I think the public charging infrastructure will be much more mature, as well as 200 miles being the norm for EV range. The convergence of those factors will break down and obstacles or objections to buying a pure EV for myself, and I imagine a lot of other buyers as well. I definitely see EVs as the future, and want to be a part of it, but I want to do it once the technology and infrastructure has advanced a little. The Model S is an amazing car. I've driven one, but it's just not within the realm of financial feasibility right now.

In terms of solar panels, I live in an attached townhouse, so I would have to get HOA approval, but I know there are state statutes protecting homeowners rights in this regard. Assuming we're going to stay in our current house, I may look into it, but have already decided if we get a single-family property, I want to get an array installed.