Discussion: Is the 4680 a fast charging million mile battery?

[Wikoogle]

Its clear now that 4680 production is not going as fast as everyone hoped. As such, it seems likely that Tesla will not reveal any advantages of the 4680 Teslas due to fear of the Osbourne effect, atleast until they can ramp up production significantly.

They may be even using software to limit range and acceleration for now due to wanting to give consumers a reason to prefer the cars that they can produce in large numbers. Due to the lack of information from Tesla, it leaves it up to us to speculate.

The two potential benefits of the 4680 to consumers are…

Longevity - Due to improved heat dissipation, many have speculated that this battery could last over a million miles before degrading 10%. How likely do you think this is?

Fast Charging - Due to a higher surface area and shorter distance needed to travel, people have speculated that this battery could charge far faster than 2170 batteries. How likely do you think this is?

 

[Brando]

Its clear now that 4680 production is not going as fast as everyone hoped. As such, it seems likely that Tesla will not reveal any advantages of the 4680 Teslas due to fear of the Osbourne effect, atleast until they can ramp up production significantly.

They may be even using software to limit range and acceleration for now due to wanting to give consumers a reason to prefer the cars that they can produce in large numbers. Due to the lack of information from Tesla, it leaves it up to us to speculate.

The two potential benefits of the 4680 to consumers are…

Longevity - Due to improved heat dissipation, many have speculated that this battery could last over a million miles before degrading 10%. How likely do you think this is?

Fast Charging - Due to a higher surface area and shorter distance needed to travel, people have speculated that this battery could charge far faster than 2170 batteries. How likely do you think this is?

How likely you'll EVER keep a car for a million miles?
How many years to drive a million miles?
How much would you save on gas? how many miles do you get per liter? how many oil changes? tires?

NO REPLY expected, as my crystal ball was unable to provide the answers you are asking for - I mean speculating about.

 

[drtimhill]

How likely you'll EVER keep a car for a million miles?
How many years to drive a million miles?
How much would you save on gas? how many miles do you get per liter? how many oil changes? tires?

NO REPLY expected, as my crystal ball was unable to provide the answers you are asking for - I mean speculating about.

I can't help but ask .. how may miles do you have on that (shall we say) "mature" car you have in your profile pic???

 

[Wikoogle]

How likely you'll EVER keep a car for a million miles?
How many years to drive a million miles?
How much would you save on gas? how many miles do you get per liter? how many oil changes? tires?

NO REPLY expected, as my crystal ball was unable to provide the answers you are asking for - I mean speculating about.

Ive used my current vehicle daily for 20+ years and intend to keep it around as my secondary vehicle until the day it dies. Why wouldnt I do the same with my Tesla? I plan to use it for the rest of my life if it doesn’t die on me.

 

[Brando]

I can't help but ask .. how may miles do you have on that (shall we say) "mature" car you have in your profile pic???

~110,000 mile

google search finds:

It took a traveling salesman 17 years to cross the million-mile mark with his 1989 Saab 900 SPG. He recently donated the durable vehicle to the Wisconsin Automotive Museum after Saab verified the mileage. MILWAUKEE — As a traveling salesman, Peter Gilbert has put a few miles on his car — 1,001,385 miles, to be precise. Dec 6, 2006

 

[FLRifleman]

Whether or not the cycle life is enough for a million miles isn't the issue. Current battery tech is good enough in terms of cycle life. Charging one full cycle daily would take 16 years to reach a 6,000 cycle count. What I'm more interested in, is it's durability in terms of calendar life. All batteries age with time, and this has been showing to be the dominate issue. When a battery pack can reliability last to 15 or more years, this would be the gaming changer.

 

[Wikoogle]

Wouldnt cycle life closely correlate to calender life as well.

I would imagine that a battery that can last 3x as many cycles due to generating less heat would also last many years longer than existing batteries.

 

[FLRifleman]

Wouldnt cycle life closely correlate to calender life as well.

I would imagine that a battery that can last 3x as many cycles due to generating less heat would also last many years longer than existing batteries.

No, these are separate wear factors. The thermal management system (TMS) controls the heat well, so this can be removed as a factor. This leaves us with cycle life and time. The Volt has been out since 2011, so we have some long term data there. In real world use, we are seeing battery failures from calendar aging around the 10 year mark, with low cycles and miles. This calendar aging ties with expectations from their Director of Battery Development. All Li batteries experience calendar aging effects.

 

[Unclepaul]

All battery technologys are constantly being upgraded and enhanced to provide greater power and life. Slowly EVs are becoming the better choice for vehicle consumers. The "Million Mile Battery" is more of a goal/slogan to gain customers than a significant issue to most owners.

 

[Wikoogle]

All battery technologys are constantly being upgraded and enhanced to provide greater power and life. Slowly EVs are becoming the better choice for vehicle consumers. The "Million Mile Battery" is more of a goal/slogan to gain customers than a significant issue to most owners.

It stands to reason that the 4680 wouldnt be the next new thing and have gained so much investment if it didnt offer enhancements in charging speeds and in longevity.

 

[FLRifleman]

It stands to reason that the 4680 wouldnt be the next new thing and have gained so much investment if it didnt offer enhancements in charging speeds and in longevity.

The battery revisions I've seen so far have primarily had to do with cost reduction, both in the amount of rare earth minerals required and manufacturing. The 4680 is a good example of this with the "tabless" design and larger cells. The purpose of the 4680 is to get the cost down where enough capacity, which the Cybertruck will require, can be made somewhat cost effectively. Until a battery manufacturer comes out and states they're bringing to market a long-life design, and are willing to back that up with a warranty, then it isn't there yet.

Ten years ago people were opining that by the time our battery would require replacement, the cost wouldn't be much due to advancement. That obviously didn't occur, and some vehicles are being financially "totaled" due to the high replacement cost. Battery development has historically been very difficult and slow. We can only make decisions on what's known today.

 

[Brando]

The battery revisions I've seen so far have primarily had to do with cost reduction, both in the amount of rare earth minerals required and manufacturing. The 4680 is a good example of this with the "tabless" design and larger cells. The purpose of the 4680 is to get the cost down where enough capacity, which the Cybertruck will require, can be made somewhat cost effectively. Until a battery manufacturer comes out and states they're bringing to market a long-life design, and are willing to back that up with a warranty, then it isn't there yet.

Ten years ago people were opining that by the time our battery would require replacement, the cost wouldn't be much due to advancement. That obviously didn't occur, and some vehicles are being financially "totaled" due to the high replacement cost. Battery development has historically been very difficult and slow. We can only make decisions on what's known today.

Evolution of Li-ion battery price, 1995-2019 – Charts – Data & Statistics - IEA

Evolution of Li-ion battery price, 1995-2019 - Chart and data by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

 

[Wikoogle]

Sandy Munro stated that the 4680 will last a gazillion years, and he would know.

Plus, in the video showing off the 4680, tesla played a lyric in the background “i will go a million miles” Seems pretty reasonable to assume that 4680 batteries will last many many decades and for a million miles due to improved heat discharge and the far shorter travel distance for electrons due to the tabless design.

Can anyone tell me a reason why I am wrong to think this?

 

[Wikoogle]

LFPs are not the only batteries that can last a 100 years. Tesla just this morning published a paper on a nickel based low power battery that can last a 100 years and a million miles…

Tesla Research Partner Publishes Details About 100-Year Battery

Clearly, no one really needs an EV battery that lasts 100 years, but that won't stop Jeff Dahn and his team from being leaders in battery tech and innovation.

insideevs.com

Is there any chance that this chemistry is whats being used in 4680s. It would explain why tesla is pushing 4680 production so hard and planning to move everything over to 4680s in the coming years.