Disingenuous Delivery Statement

[Laeno]

Wondering if I'm in the same boat as anyone else .

I ordered an M3 AWD LR with blue exterior, white interior, aero wheels, and full self driving capability on Tuesday. The site continued to mention the delivery was within two weeks, and still does under my account.

However, i recurved a call from my sales advisor today to see if I wanted a vehicle I could get this weekend. Either red exterior or blue with black interior. I tend to keep my cars for a decade-ish. I'm not a fan of red, and I really dislike the light wood panel in the black (honestly who thought that was a good idea?). I was offered a slightly lower price for taking one of those.

I passed, and was informed it would be 6-8 weeks before my car would even possibly be ready. Which is an issue as my old car was totaled, bumping up my search for a new vehicle. I feel pretty well bait and switched here. Has anyone else experienced something like this? Was it really that long of a wait?

And how can a company that designs a car with this much tech not figure out a system that gets delivery THIS wrong?

 

[callmehere]

Ask them if they have a M3P that is blue and white interior, and see if they will discount that to the price you already paid, then you can hopefully take one of their inventory cars and you get a better car

 

[srs5694]

With many cars, not just Teslas, if you want a very specific configuration, you may have to wait a few weeks for delivery, since the exact item you want may not be in inventory anywhere nearby and the dealer may need to place a special order with the factory. This is particularly true if you want an unusual option, like an unpopular paint color or a manual transmission (the latter not in Teslas, obviously). OTOH, you might luck out and the dealer might have exactly what you want, or be able to trade with another dealer for it. If you need a car in a hurry, then you've got to accept whatever's on the lot, even if it's not your first-choice color, has options that aren't quite what you want, etc. Looked at in this way, Tesla's really no different from any other automaker.

That said, Tesla's Web page gives the impression that order-to-delivery time is less variable than it is. That sets up unrealistic expectations among customers. The underlying reality is that Tesla times its deliveries by quarter, with initial production in each quarter going to distant locations (like China and Europe) and later production going to closer locations (the US East Coast, and eventually California). This system enables them to deliver most of the cars they produce in any given quarter in the same quarter, which looks good on the balance sheets. If you buy early in the quarter, you're basically stuck with what's in stock nearby or you'll need to wait several weeks if your exact configuration isn't already in stock. If you understand this system, you'll be less disappointed by Tesla's delivery timing.

As far as practical advice, if you need a car now, I'd recommend you go to your sales adviser and ask for matches to cars that are close to what you want -- compromise on interior or exterior colors, wheels, or even battery/motor/trim levels. You may even get something with a price reduction if you can't get exactly what you want. AP and FSD are software features that can be added (or not) to any car, so they shouldn't be a problem.

 

[MrMassTransit]

My experience (with an SR+) was the opposite - at the time of order, the site said within two weeks. I placed the order, several days later a delivery advisor called me just to check in. I asked her when the car might be delivered and she said "probably by the end of the month" which was three weeks from the delivery date. Several days later, I noticed my account had updated with a VIN and a Saturday delivery date, which would have been a week and a half from the initial order date. The next day I received a call and was told the car was just unloaded from the truck - did I want to come get it that day?

I'd agree with the other poster who said the website understates there is a lot of variability. Certainty only begins to develop once the car is produced and headed on a truck towards location. The fact that you are in Texas could complicate matters, although I am not sure - VA, where I picked my car up, has no restrictions on direct sales. My suggestion is just get a rental car for a few weeks and wait out your favored configuration. There's no reason to compromise for years just to save a few weeks. It could be 6-8 weeks but there's just as good a chance that in four weeks you'll be picking up your new car. The uncertainty sucks, no doubt about it, but hang in there. You'll love the car once you get it. I certainly do.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Laeno. These days Model 3 production is switching from Autopilot Hardware 2.5 to HW3.0. If you take delivery by the end of this month, your car will have HW2.5. If you wait for a little more, it will have HW3.0. I recommend waiting because of these reasons:

1. I'm calculating 120,000 Teslas will need the free HW3 computer swap. It could take a few months until they swap your computer.
2. There could be other hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0.
3. HW3.0 might support an HW3.5 retrofit but HW2.5 might not support it.

As for 6-8 weeks delay, yes I agree with that. Check out my message here where I explained why you would normally wait until at least 20 May 2019 for Model 3 with HW3.0 delivery. However, you should still choose to wait until Tesla confirms HW3. I expect them to confirm it with a blog post between 10-20 April 2019.

They are trying to clear all Model 3s they have left in stock before announcing HW3. That's why they are offering a Model 3 that's a close match but not an exact match.

 

[phlevcar]

I agree with OP, specially Tesla being having technology as part of their core business, it would be easy to add a function to their website that when you select a color that requires more time, then the site would automatically show 4-6 weeks instead of two.

 

[Knightshade]

Hi, @Laeno. These days Model 3 production is switching from Autopilot Hardware 2.5 to HW3.0. If you take delivery by the end of this month, your car will have HW2.5. If you wait for a little more, it will have HW3.0. I recommend waiting because of these reasons:

1. I'm calculating 120,000 Teslas will need the free HW3 computer swap. It could take a few months until they swap your computer.
2. There could be other hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0.
3. HW3.0 might support an HW3.5 retrofit but HW2.5 might not support it.

FWIW Elon has directly refuted points 2 and 3 in your speculation- having explicitly said the only change was swapping the computer, and the car was intentionally built for that to be a modular swap, so there was no reason for anyone to "wait" for HW3.

He could always be lying I suppose.

 

[Knightshade]

I agree with OP, specially Tesla being having technology as part of their core business, it would be easy to add a function to their website that when you select a color that requires more time, then the site would automatically show 4-6 weeks instead of two.

Remember you're talking about a company that hasn't figured out how to add waypoints to its nav software. A problem Garmin had cracked in 2003.

 

[Troy]

@Knightshade, in his tweet here Elon said the sensors are the same and the computer will be swapped. Using tricky language to imply something without saying it is Tesla's specialty. Then when you look back at what they actually said, it becomes clear that they didn't say what most people understood. In this instance, they didn't say all components of Autopilot HW2.5 and HW3.0 will be the same. Elon only said the sensors will be the same. The fact that he was specifically talking about the sensors makes it more likely that something else is different.

In #2 I'm talking about other differences such as secondary wiring to add redundancy or backup power.

In #3, I'm talking about wiring that might be put in place to enable a rear radar with HW3.5. A year from now if they release HW3.5 with a rear radar, HW3.0 could support a retrofit if the wiring is already in place but HW2.5 might not. If Tesla suspects they can't get regulatory approval for FSD in Europe without a rear-radar, they might the wiring in place just in case.

When we look at the differences between HW2.0 and HW2.5 excluding the computer and the sensors, in HW2.5 there is secondary wiring to the front radar for redundancy. Also, it has a second power steering motor for redundancy. In addition, there was another difference related to backup power. There might be similar differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0.

 

[Troy]

@Laeno, in your area, they had these Model 3s in stock. There were none with blue paint and white interior except one that looks like a return based on 483 miles on the odometer. The full list of 10,848 Model 3s they had in stock on 19 Feb 2019 can be found here.

You should wait for HW3.0.

 

[Laeno]

@callmehere That's not a bad idea....

@srs5694 Most dealerships also don't display the anticipated time and don't deliver. And I understand that it takes time to get a car, especially one custom ordered. But Tesla vehicles also do not have the same # of options and configurations as other dealers. FWIW, they did offer me some very similar options. If they'd offered a black ext/white int, I very well may have taken it. Discussed with the wife, may very well just try to one car family and uber around. If I'm going to drop $60k...


@MrMassTransit I hope my experience turns out closer to yours. If they called me next week and could get me a car, I'd be stoked. I know Texas is a PITA in this regard, but I'm also paying cash, soooo.

@Troy I'm currently carless, and my wife's schedule and mine are generally conflicting. Normally I'd sit tight and wait, but it's a pain. Regaridng waiting a long time... that wouldn't be feasible. Though if I wind up with a default HW3, might be worth it.

 

[Knightshade]

@Knightshade, in his tweet here Elon said the sensors are the same and the computer will be swapped. Using tricky language to imply something without saying it is Tesla's specialty. Then when you look back at what they actually said, it becomes clear that they didn't say what most people understood. In this instance, they didn't say all components of Autopilot HW2.5 and HW3.0 will be the same. Elon only said the sensors will be the same. The fact that he was specifically talking about the sensors makes it more likely that something else is different.

....not really though, no.

Because he explictly said there was no reason to wait repeatedly on the Q3 call.

So if it turns out there WAS a reason he'd have repeatedly lied directly on the investor call.

And at a bare minimum anybody who bought a car after that call, up to HW3 coming in cars, as well as any existing customer who bought FSD after that call assured his "older" 2.x car would be the same as a 3 car, would have the basis for a lawsuit since they materially relied on his claim there was no reason to have waited to buy.

very important to emphasize is that, the only thing that needs to change between the cars used today and cars produced in the second quarter of next year is swapping up the autopilot computer. And this is a simple change that takes less than half an hour and service to upgrade the computer. And one will be able to upgrade their computer to full-self driving capability or upgrade their car to full-self driving capability with a simple service visit. So, we expect all cars with the hardware to sensor suite, basically anything made in the last roughly two years will be upgradeable to full-self driving.

Then later after Bannon makes a remark-

there's no need to wait till it comes out because it's just a very simple plug-and-play change to get the full-self driving. And anyone who paid for self-driving option, will just get it done for free.

And then-

there's no advantage ordering now versus Q2

(bold added where relevant)

 

[mswlogo]

Don’t see a problem. They are just giving you all the options. I’d wait and get a 2019 with HW3 and the colors you want.

For the record I love the black interior and the wood. Probably 10 to 1 more black interiors sold. Why folks want white interior is beyond me. Looks nice, as long as you never use it.

 

[Troy]

@Knightshade, things that are required to operate at the same level does not cover every possible hardware difference. Here are a few examples:

• HW2.5 has a Remote Kill Switch feature, HW2.0 does not. See the details here.
• HW2.5 has a second power steering motor, HW2.0 does not.
• HW2.5 has secondary wiring to the radar, HW2.0 does not.

None of these make HW2.5 operate better. None of these are normally needed. However, all of them increase the chances of HW2.5 receiving regulatory approval for FSD compared to HW2.0. We could see similar differences in HW3 that are designed to add more redundancy and increase the chances of regulatory approval.

If HW2.5 doesn't get approval in Europe for FSD and HW3.0 does, people will come to this forum to complain and the response they will get is, "Stop whining, you will get a refund for FSD, it's not Tesla's fault." I'm offering a different perspective. I'm pro-Tesla but I'm also pro-consumer.

Here is why people should wait for HW3 if possible:

• Retrofit delays: I calculate that 120,000 Teslas will need the free HW3 computer swap. It could take a few months until they swap your computer.
• Hardware differences: The statement that Tesla will retrofit Hardware 3.0 is not precise enough. Therefore it's misleading. What Elon said here was, they will swap the Autopilot computer and the sensors are already the same. However, there could be other hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0 such as secondary wiring or backup power to add redundancy. If you look at HW2.0 vs HW2.5, there were in fact, these kind differences that add redundancy. HW2.5 has a second power steering motor, HW2.0 does not. HW2.5 has secondary wiring to the radar, HW2.0 does not. HW2.5 has a Remote Kill Switch feature, HW2.0 does not. See the details here. This was probably added because they expect regulators to ask for these features. There could be similar differences in HW3.0 to make FSD more future proof for regulatory approval.
• Future upgradability: HW3.0 could be more future proof than HW2.5. For example, in Germany, the Federal Motor Transport Authority [Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA)] tested the capability of Tesla's Autopilot hardware and they had some reservations. There is a risk they might not approve FSD without a rear radar which is available in Mercedes' version. Without a rear-radar, performing Auto Lane Change without confirmation on the Autobahn could be dangerous because the cameras don't have enough range. Tesla knows this risk. They might design HW3 cars in a way that would support a potential rear radar retrofit. It is a risk to consider.
• Basic AP performance: Based on Elon's comments here after 17:10, all cameras will operate at higher frames per second with HW3.0 and they won't use any compression. Therefore I think even basic AP will work better with HW3.

 

[voip-ninja]

Hi, @Laeno. These days Model 3 production is switching from Autopilot Hardware 2.5 to HW3.0. If you take delivery by the end of this month, your car will have HW2.5. If you wait for a little more, it will have HW3.0. I recommend waiting because of these reasons:

1. I'm calculating 120,000 Teslas will need the free HW3 computer swap. It could take a few months until they swap your computer.
2. There could be other hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0.
3. HW3.0 might support an HW3.5 retrofit but HW2.5 might not support it.

As for 6-8 weeks delay, yes I agree with that. Check out my message here where I explained why you would normally wait until at least 20 May 2019 for Model 3 with HW3.0 delivery. However, you should still choose to wait until Tesla confirms HW3. I expect them to confirm it with a blog post between 10-20 April 2019.

They are trying to clear all Model 3s they have left in stock before announcing HW3. That's why they are offering a Model 3 that's a close match but not an exact match.

There is no guarantee that if he waits he gets AP 3.0. It might just mean that his blue/white/aero (nice choice btw) car is shipped from a further distribution center with some delay.

@Laeno I do agree with Troy's overall comment though that you are better off waiting a while and hoping you get new production that has AP 3.0 hardware as you will also be getting a car that is latest production vs. one that has potentially been sitting at a hub for sometimes as long as 3-4 months.

Latest production cars will incorporate all of the small tweaks that Tesla is continually making to the production process and this means it is less likely you will get a car with noises or assembly related problems.

Could Tesla do better with delivery estimate? Sure. However in this particular case you should be less concerned with waiting an extra 1-2 months and more concerned with which AP hardware your car shows up with as you might be waiting forever to get your car retrofitted with the new hardware if you take delivery of a car that's already been built.

 

[Knightshade]

@Knightshade, things that are required to operate at the same level does not cover every possible hardware difference. Here are a few examples:

• HW2.5 has a Remote Kill Switch feature, HW2.0 does not. See the details here.
• HW2.5 has a second power steering motor, HW2.0 does not.
• HW2.5 has secondary wiring to the radar, HW2.0 does not.

None of these make HW2.5 operate better. None of these are normally needed. However, all of them increase the chances of HW2.5 receiving regulatory approval for FSD compared to HW2.0. We could see similar differences in HW3 that are designed to add more redundancy and increase the chances of regulatory approval.

But that would constitute a substantive difference and would have been a reason to wait

Both of which Elon assured us was not the case, and that the HW3 upgrade was just a computer swap. That's a direct quote as cited in my previous post.

So speculating about a lot of other changes there's not only no evidence of, but direct denial of, seems....unfounded.

Here is why people should wait for HW3 if possible:

• Retrofit delays: I calculate that 120,000 Teslas will need the free HW3 computer swap. It could take a few months until they swap your computer.

I agree, that's totally possible.

But it's unclear if that will actually matter, because it's unclear if any software requiring HW3 is going to be released in those few months.

Hardware differences: The statement that Tesla will retrofit Hardware 3.0 is not precise enough. Therefore it's misleading. What Elon said here was, they will swap the Autopilot computer and the sensors are already the same. However, there could be other hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0 such as secondary wiring or backup power to add redundancy.

Except, there couldn't, because as I just quoted him saying- the HW3 upgrade is just a computer swap and there is no reason to wait for it.

If anything you're suggesting were true (and we've seen 0 hint or evidence of any kind it is) then Elon would've been lying. Materially. To directly influence buyers of his products.

Which is illegal.

(which means either what Elon said is true- the only difference is the computer swap, and there's no reason to wait.... or Tesla will be faced with a choice of: Big lawsuit, or free extensive retrofits of all FSD cars.... between those 3 options "Elon was telling the truth" is by far the least expensive for Tesla)

 

[cgrubbe]

Wondering if I'm in the same boat as anyone else .

I ordered an M3 AWD LR with blue exterior, white interior, aero wheels, and full self driving capability on Tuesday. The site continued to mention the delivery was within two weeks, and still does under my account.

However, i recurved a call from my sales advisor today to see if I wanted a vehicle I could get this weekend. Either red exterior or blue with black interior. I tend to keep my cars for a decade-ish. I'm not a fan of red, and I really dislike the light wood panel in the black (honestly who thought that was a good idea?). I was offered a slightly lower price for taking one of those.

I passed, and was informed it would be 6-8 weeks before my car would even possibly be ready. Which is an issue as my old car was totaled, bumping up my search for a new vehicle. I feel pretty well bait and switched here. Has anyone else experienced something like this? Was it really that long of a wait?

And how can a company that designs a car with this much tech not figure out a system that gets delivery THIS wrong?

They're not trying to pull anything, they're trying to get you to buy a car they have on hand so that they can add another car to their numbers for this quarter. Quarter ends this weekend.

They get lots of things wrong, engineering and tech talent doesn't translate to the nuts and bolts of building and selling cars.

 

[MP3Mike]

When we look at the differences between HW2.0 and HW2.5 excluding the computer and the sensors, in HW2.5 there is secondary wiring to the front radar for redundancy. Also, it has a second power steering motor for redundancy.

I have seen people say this multiple times, and when asked, nobody has been able to provide any evidence that it is actually true. Yes, there is redundant power to the power steering in HW2.5 cars. But as far as I know there is not a redundant motor. (I think there might even be a redundant control board, but I'm not sure on that.)

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Wondering if I'm in the same boat as anyone else .

I ordered an M3 AWD LR with blue exterior, white interior, aero wheels, and full self driving capability on Tuesday. The site continued to mention the delivery was within two weeks, and still does under my account.

However, i recurved a call from my sales advisor today to see if I wanted a vehicle I could get this weekend. Either red exterior or blue with black interior. I tend to keep my cars for a decade-ish. I'm not a fan of red, and I really dislike the light wood panel in the black (honestly who thought that was a good idea?). I was offered a slightly lower price for taking one of those.

I passed, and was informed it would be 6-8 weeks before my car would even possibly be ready. Which is an issue as my old car was totaled, bumping up my search for a new vehicle. I feel pretty well bait and switched here. Has anyone else experienced something like this? Was it really that long of a wait?

And how can a company that designs a car with this much tech not figure out a system that gets delivery THIS wrong?

If you don't want the any of configurations from the few cars in inventory, don't take one.

Tesla is primarily in the business of direct ordering for cars. Personally, I think the 6 - 8 weeks is a "worst case" estimate.
However, they are trying to maximize deliveries by end of March, and if you can wait into April you'll have a much better delivery experience.

Since they don't really have that many configurations, you shouldn't have to wait too long for yours.

 

[MP3Mike]

Since they don't really have that many configurations, you shouldn't have to wait too long for yours.

Unless they go back to making Model 3s almost exclusively for Europe/China for the first two months of Q2. (Like they did with Q1.) Doing that allows them to get them on boats and delivered before the end of the quarter, and then they make NA cars in the last month of the quarter where delivery doesn't take so long.

If they decide to smooth out deliveries I still think they will do production in 2-week batches. So first 2 weeks of Q2 would be for Europe, second 2 weeks would be for China, third 2 weeks for NA, lather, rinse, repeat. And if that is the case 6-8 weeks isn't an unreasonable estimate. (Maybe they are going to do the batches as 3 weeks each?)