Disingenuous Delivery Statement

[Troy]

@Knightshade, if it turns out that there are in fact hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0 other than the sensors and the computer that don't affect how Autopilot functions but do affect redundancy, what do you think people will say about that? Here is a list of things some people might say. I don't agree with any of these:

• It's not Tesla's fault. It's the regulators who don't approve AP2.5. Tesla has nothing to do with that.
• When Elon said there was no need to wait, he was talking about how easy it's to swap the computer. Tesla mobile service can do it in less than 30 minutes. That's why he said no need to wait.
• Elon said sensors are the same and they will swap the computer. That's exactly what happened. I don't see a problem.
• Regulators always ask for more safety. Tesla can't know everything they might ask so they added some features they thought might be useful. Good job Tesla.
• What Elon said was true at the time but Tesla makes hardware changes all the time because they don't have model years. Expecting HW2.5 and HW3.0 to be exactly the same is not realistic.
• Tesla was working with NHTSA and the German equivalent KBA. They simply added features they were asked to add long after AP2.5 entered production. These have nothing to do with Autopilot functionality. You got what you paid for in terms of Autopilot features. Stop whining.

My opinion is, it's very likely that HW2.5 and HW3.0 will have hardware differences other than the sensors and the computer. Therefore buyers should wait for HW3.0 if possible.

 

[Knightshade]

@Knightshade, if it turns out that there are in fact hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0 other than the sensors and the computer that don't affect how Autopilot functions but do affect redundancy, what do you think people will say about that? Here is a list of things some people might say. I don't agree with any of these:

• It's not Tesla's fault. It's the regulators who don't approve AP2.5. Tesla has nothing to do with that.
• When Elon said there was no need to wait, he was talking about how easy it's to swap the computer. Tesla mobile service can do it in less than 30 minutes. That's why he said no need to wait.
• Elon said sensors are the same and they will swap the computer. That's exactly what happened. I don't see a problem.
• Regulators always ask for more safety. Tesla can't know everything they might ask so they added some features they thought might be useful. Good job Tesla.
• Tesla was working with NHTSA and the German equivalent KBA. They simply added features they were asked to add long after AP2.5 entered production. These have nothing to do with Autopilot functionality. You got what you paid for in terms of Autopilot features. Stop whining.

I think they would stop harping on the one incomplete tweet you are, and instead look to to the multiple other things Elon said that I've quoted to you and which go into more detail and specifics than that tweet, and you seem to keep ignoring the contents of.

All of which clearly state the only change for HW3 is the computer swap.

And thus either that's really the only change and you're suggesting other changes for which we have 0 evidence... or Elon repeatedly, directly, and explicitly, lied on the investor call and elsewhere.


Which one of those two mutually exclusive options do you think is more likely?

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Unless they go back to making Model 3s almost exclusively for Europe/China for the first two months of Q2. (Like they did with Q1.) Doing that allows them to get them on boats and delivered before the end of the quarter, and then they make NA cars in the last month of the quarter where delivery doesn't take so long.

If they decide to smooth out deliveries I still think they will do production in 2-week batches. So first 2 weeks of Q2 would be for Europe, second 2 weeks would be for China, third 2 weeks for NA, lather, rinse, repeat. And if that is the case 6-8 weeks isn't an unreasonable estimate. (Maybe they are going to do the batches as 3 weeks each?)

Good point, but remember that they have shipping constraints which means they'll have the ability to build more cars than they can ship overseas.

 

[dlinsley]

I was in a similar boat. My Bolt was totaled at the end of February and on 3/4 I ordered an LR AWD, Red with white interior, 19" + AP. Nine days later I was offered a local car exactly what I ordered except black interior. Like the OP we don't like the wood trim and so decided to wait. Since 3/7 I was paying for my own rental, as the insurance company deposited my payment, and that was just adding to the overall cost and so with no movement by 3/19 I checked back with the local rep who offered me the red car and asked what white interiors they had in LR AWD. They ended up having my configuration except MSM and the local store had a P3D on display in the MSM/White configuration so I could come look. Compared to the in-store S in the multi coat red, I more loved the look of the MSM and 4 days later we took delivery.

FSD seems cool, but considering the car doesn't even read speed signs* yet I'll gladly save $5k now and just invest it elsewhere and maybe spend $7k later if that ever happens - but I'm not holding my breath.

* the sales man on my test drive wasn't sure, but the city have just installed clear as day 25mph signs along some of our local streets but the car is obviously going off the map as it still always shows 30 or 35mph. I'd like to see the car notice flashing school zone signs and display the 20mph posted limit (maybe with a beep to indicate speed limit dropping) too. Having rented cheap Ford's and Citroen's in the UK, the speed sign reading has always been a technological wonder and a great feature should I miss what one of the endless motorway work zone signs say, given all the average speed zone traps that nail you hard for 45 in a 40 when you missed the sign and were still doing 50 from the sign before.

 

[Randy7fx]

I think they would stop harping on the one incomplete tweet you are, and instead look to to the multiple other things Elon said that I've quoted to you and which go into more detail and specifics than that tweet, and you seem to keep ignoring the contents of.

All of which clearly state the only change for HW3 is the computer swap.

And thus either that's really the only change and you're suggesting other changes for which we have 0 evidence... or Elon repeatedly, directly, and explicitly, lied on the investor call and elsewhere.


Which one of those two mutually exclusive options do you think is more likely?

My sense is what Troy is saying, is that in the event of additional changes needed in the future, naturally, HW3 will likely be more future proof than HW2.5. I think that is probably something we can all agree on and impossible to dispute. So if given a chance, take HW3 over HW2.5.

 

[Knightshade]

My sense is what Troy is saying, is that in the event of additional changes needed in the future, naturally, HW3 will likely be more future proof than HW2.5. I think that is probably something we can all agree on and impossible to dispute. So if given a chance, take HW3 over HW2.5.

I don't think we can.

Because Elon literally said the computer swap was the only difference

He said the 2.5->3 change was just the computer swap. Thus no reason for anyone to wait for a "factory" HW3 car.

So a HW2.5 car with the HW3 computer swapped in is identical to a car that came with HW3 from the factory per Elons statement.


Thus, no, a HW3 factory car wouldn't be any more futureproof than a 2.5 factory car. Both would be identical other than an easily swappable computer module.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think they would stop harping on the one incomplete tweet you are, and instead look to to the multiple other things Elon said that I've quoted to you and which go into more detail and specifics than that tweet, and you seem to keep ignoring the contents of.

All of which clearly state the only change for HW3 is the computer swap.

And thus either that's really the only change and you're suggesting other changes for which we have 0 evidence... or Elon repeatedly, directly, and explicitly, lied on the investor call and elsewhere.


Which one of those two mutually exclusive options do you think is more likely?

You are missing another option. HW3 can sufficiently run with other existing hardware so it will just be a computer swap, but new vehicles have small changes to other hardware that may be more optimal.

 

[Randy7fx]

I don't think we can.

Because Elon literally said the computer swap was the only difference

He said the 2.5->3 change was just the computer swap. Thus no reason for anyone to wait for a "factory" HW3 car.

So a HW2.5 car with the HW3 computer swapped in is identical to a car that came with HW3 from the factory per Elons statement.


Thus, no, a HW3 factory car wouldn't be any more futureproof than a 2.5 factory car. Both would be identical other than an easily swappable computer module.

Do you think it is possible Tesla knows something today that they didn't know yesterday? At the pace of innovation and change, I think it is highly possible. I get what Elon said yesterday, which was fact at the time. I also recall, prior to the Model 3 coming out, that Elon/Tesla said the Model 3 will come with 100% of the hardware that is needed for FSD. Clearly, Tesla now thinks, for whatever reason, HW2.5 will not suffice. Despite what Elon has said, I think most would agree that HW3.0 is likely to be more future proof than HW2.5. My statement is hedged so much that I don't see how anyone would dispute it to be honest...

 

[shifteru]

My situation is a bit similar to yours, OP. I'm also in TX. I ordered a LR AWD Blue exterior, white interior, 19" wheels back on 3/13. I was very quickly matched with a 2018 VIN. Spoke to my delivery advisor and asked about a discount (since it seemed everyone was getting them at the time). He refused, so I asked to be rematched to a 2019 VIN. I've been waiting since.

Spoke with local store about a week ago and nothing in my config. Spoke with DA again two days ago, and he checked again for inventory but nothing really in any color with white seats unless I want to go RWD (don't want) or Performance (not willing to pay $11k more), and in those cases there were plenty of choices. He also mentioned that there aren't any 2018s, which now he's able to discount, with white interior and I'm unwilling to go with black interior.

At this point, I have nothing but guesswork to go on. Based on this forum and others, as well as the Model 3 VIN tracking twitter and spreadsheet, it looks like for the USA, most of the early part of 2019 was spent on SR+ models. Then not too long ago, this switched to LR RWD, and just this past week (according to my DA) is when a lot of Performance models were built. Based on that, my hope is that AWD will get some love next, but I'm also accepting of the fact that they may shortly switch to international and I won't see my car for another month or more, but hoping that's not true.

 

[Troy]

@Knightshade, I have seen too many examples of tricky language from Tesla. See the examples here and check out my opinions here if you want.

For example, all CPO pages say "Mechanically Inspected". See the random CPO example I picked here. When I saw that statement, I knew instantly that it meant CPOs are no longer reconditioned or refurbished. When they said Model 3 will have Track Mode, I knew immediately that Model S won't have Track Mode. Conference calls are full of these examples too. Once somebody asked why Tesla brought back the software limited Model S 60 and the answer was, they wanted to help the consumers with the cheaper version and they said it still had positive gross margins. When I heard that, I knew the S60 was only introduced to meet quarterly targets and it was about to be discontinued. A week later it was gone. I should probably start making a list of my Tesla translations.

 

[Knightshade]

@Knightshade, I have seen too many examples of tricky language from Tesla.

And if we only had that original tweet- I'd agree with you. They could have changed things other than sensors or computer and Tesla would be in the clear.

But he was much more specific on the investor call.... and repeatedly so.

There's nothing "tricky" about "no reason" to wait. If there's any reason that statement becomes an explicit lie.

There's nothing tricky about it's "just" a computer swap. If there's "anything" else changed then that statement becomes an explicit lie.

You seem to still exclusively be focused on one statement he made, rather than the totality of them that cover a lot more ground.

You are missing another option. HW3 can sufficiently run with other existing hardware so it will just be a computer swap, but new vehicles have small changes to other hardware that may be more optimal.

"car runs more optimally" would be a reason to wait. Which Elon said does not exist.

"has small hardware changes related to how HW3 works" would be more than "just" a computer swap. Which Elon said is not the case.


So again, 100% of what evidence we have (ie Elons explicit and specific statements) say computer swap only.


I've seen no evidence of any kind suggesting anything different on factory HW3 cars.

And we're days past actual HW3 cars having been delivered to people too based on reports.

Do you think it is possible Tesla knows something today that they didn't know yesterday? At the pace of innovation and change, I think it is highly possible. I get what Elon said yesterday, which was fact at the time.

But he was saying this at the same time as the HW3 board was already done, and being field tested.

And they're apparently hitting the release dates they mentioned at the time.

If they suddenly discovered "wait, we actually need to add some crap outside the computer that the computer can use" they'd have to have gone back and redesigned said computer. And missed their deadlines.


So no, I don't think it's possible they know anything today they didn't know then involving actual HW changes- because there's no way there'd be HW3 cars already shipping if that were the case.

Hell, Tesla still hasn't figured out how to make an already existing ChaDEMO adapter work in a model 3 after a couple of years- you think they somehow figured out how to add rear radar to something that was never designed for it so fast it didn't change delivery time lines?

D I also recall, prior to the Model 3 coming out, that Elon/Tesla said the Model 3 will come with 100% of the hardware that is needed for FSD.

Interestingly though- when in the past they discovered that was not true- they made clear they would upgrade any previous-HW customer as needed to bring them up to speed.

They even stated during the 2->2.5 transition that if 2.5 was enough for FSD but 2.0 was not, they'd upgrade the 2.0 cars.

Turns out neither was- and both are now promised HW3 instead.

Clearly, Tesla now thinks, for whatever reason, HW2.5 will not suffice. Despite what Elon has said, I think most would agree that HW3.0 is likely to be more future proof than HW2.5. My statement is hedged so much that I don't see how anyone would dispute it to be honest...

I don't see how anyone would agree to be honest.

Since based on everything Elon has ever said there is literally no difference between them other than the computer, which is swappable in 30 minutes, and whose swap is already done for free for FSD owners.


If you can explain why you think two literally identical things differ in future-proofing, please do.

 

[Laeno]

Thanks for the input everyone. I still think I'm going to be happy with my M3 once it finally arrives. And I probably would be less upset had I just been told upfront that it would be a long wait. Could have planned a bit better, etc.

Regarding the black interior with the wood--I get that some people like it. I may have liked it had the wood been a darker stain, but it's just not for me. And I think the blue/white looks sharp (thanks for agreeing @voip-ninja ).

Also, I will be happy if I get a brand new vehicle with minimal paint issues, latest hardware, etc. Just wish that I had been warned about the time frame.

 

[voip-ninja]

Do you think it is possible Tesla knows something today that they didn't know yesterday? At the pace of innovation and change, I think it is highly possible. I get what Elon said yesterday, which was fact at the time. I also recall, prior to the Model 3 coming out, that Elon/Tesla said the Model 3 will come with 100% of the hardware that is needed for FSD. Clearly, Tesla now thinks, for whatever reason, HW2.5 will not suffice. Despite what Elon has said, I think most would agree that HW3.0 is likely to be more future proof than HW2.5. My statement is hedged so much that I don't see how anyone would dispute it to be honest...

Elon has said many things that some might even construe as promises about FSD that have not panned out. If you believe 25% of what he says about FSD I have some nice swampland in Florida I can sell you.

 

[Knightshade]

Elon has said many things that some might even construe as promises about FSD that have not panned out.

People keep saying that.

But they seem to not see any difference between "I think we can reach this goal in X time" and "If you give us X dollars we will physically give you Y object"

Those are pretty different though- both literally and legally.

 

[OCR1]

* the sales man on my test drive wasn't sure, but the city have just installed clear as day 25mph signs along some of our local streets but the car is obviously going off the map as it still always shows 30 or 35mph. I'd like to see the car notice flashing school zone signs and display the 20mph posted limit (maybe with a beep to indicate speed limit dropping) too.

Interesting point. We have a number of schools in our neighborhood where the speed limit is 25mph when children are present, but there are no flashing signs to indicate their presence. How will FSD know that school is in session and the slower speed limit will apply?

 

[MP3Mike]

@Knightshade, in his tweet here Elon said the sensors are the same and the computer will be swapped. Using tricky language to imply something without saying it is Tesla's specialty. Then when you look back at what they actually said, it becomes clear that they didn't say what most people understood. In this instance, they didn't say all components of Autopilot HW2.5 and HW3.0 will be the same. Elon only said the sensors will be the same. The fact that he was specifically talking about the sensors makes it more likely that something else is different.

@Troy I guess this puts that question to bed:

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 11m11 minutes ago

Anyone who purchased full self-driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free. This is the only change between Autopilot HW2.5 & HW3. Going forward “HW3” will just be called FSD Computer, which is accurate. No change to vehicle sensors or wire harness needed. This is v important.

 

[OCR1]

@Troy I guess this puts that question to bed:

Wow. It’s as if he was reading this thread and responding directly to it. How bizarre. Good to have a clear and definitive answer directly from Elon though. I’m comfortable with that. And I’m generally not comfortable with most of his tweets.

 

[Kant.Ing]

Is it the first time he uses "HW2.5" or does he still have "HW2.1" in mind?

 

[Knightshade]

I mean, it was already to bed. This is the same thing he said in the Q3 2018 call, that it was just a computer swap, and that there was no reason to "wait" for HW3 from the factory.

To my mind either you believed him then, and this confirmation seems totally redundant... or you thought he was lying then so why would you think he's telling the truth now?

Bonus funny for his later remark though where he points out waiting was actually "worse" because the current code is 2.x optimized so actually runs slightly worse on HW3 at the moment... (I doubt that will be a long window it's true for, but it's still an amusing postscript)