Dissing Tesla Reliability

[jaguar36]

None of these ratings are reliable unless they are based on a true random sample of owners, with controls for bias. And as none take measurements that way it means none can be completed trusted. Reliable and rigorous research on auto reliability is very difficult and expensive to do, which is why no one does reliable and rigorous research.

Tesla knows how every car has performed, but they're not talking.

+1

The only other companies that might have a decent idea are the folks with a significant monetary interest in how the Model S does, and that would be Tesla's competitors.

Based on the evidence of the forum, as well as my personal experience I'd say the Model S is not very reliable. There doesn't seem to be anyone with high mileage that hasn't had a significant number of issues. Now of course anyone with high mileage likely had an early production car, so its quite possible that the ones rolling off the line now are quite reliable.

Honestly this isn't surprising. Designing a car to hit 0-60 in under 3 seconds is easy. Designing not just a car, but the entire supply chain and production process that can produce 50k cars a year, and not have any issues is ridiculously hard. Alot of that comes from experience too. If you've got a process that produces a part that fails one out of 100 cars, you could do a ton of testing and not catch it.

 

[green1]

Based on the evidence of the forum, as well as my personal experience I'd say the Model S is not very reliable. There doesn't seem to be anyone with high mileage that hasn't had a significant number of issues.

And yet another poster who doesn't grasp statistics and selection bias. ..

 

[jaguar36]

And yet another poster who doesn't grasp statistics and selection bias. ..

You are incorrect sir. You can make quite reasonable statistical conclusions based on a single sample size. Its done all the time in fact. Every plane you've ever flown on only had one airframe test and was deemed safe based off that test.

If you make some reasonable assumptions about probability density function of the failures, and you have on low mileage car with a laundry list of failures, its a quite safe and valid assumption to expect that most other Model S's will not be failure free.


As for selection bias, sure there is some in those threads, however if you actually consider it, instead of just quoting buzzwords, you would realize that a thread such as the 100k mileage thread is probably not heavily biased towards folks who have had problems. It is, as I mentioned biased towards early production cars. Once again, when you have 3-4 people with numerous issues and nobody touting their problem free Model S, it is a strong indicator that the reliability is poor.


Incidently alot of this hinges on what you consider 'good' reliability. Personally I would call a car reliable if it doesn't have to go back to the dealer more than once over 100k because something is broken. Others will undoubtedly disagree.

 

[dhanson865]

I think you ignored the huge gaping hole in the statistics truedelta collects. The average person doesn't look for a place to post if they don't have any problems, as a result the results are GUARANTEED to be heavily biased towards those having problems. He can try all he wants, but human nature is against his efforts.

CR is the only study I am aware of that goes after the customers and doesn't wait for the customers to come to them, this is the only way to get a representative sample. Anything less is flawed.

Sorry but that is wrong.

CR goes after the data by asking subscribers and many don't fill it out. Personally I have subscribed to CR one year and did NOT fill out any of the surveys because I found the process cumbersome (this was more than a decade ago, possibly two).

TD goes after the data by asking forum members to fill it out. Not terribly different than CR in terms of asking. I've seen people on Toyota, Nissan, Tesla, etecetera forums discussing truedelta. All it takes is for a user to join and you get data on all their cars not just the ones they want to complain about.

In my case I found out about truedelta before I got a Prius, then continued to enter data for my Prius and Leaf as I got each and still own both. So TD got my data on two cars so far and will get my data on my next car but CR hasn't gotten any car reliability data from me.

I think what you have is a strong case of confirmation bias. You see CR as established and therefore better and see TD as new and therefore worse.

It's obvious you haven't read the TD blog on the data issues with CR.

 

[X-Wing]

Besides statistical bias, let not forget confirmation bias and other factors in play here.

The happy Model S owners aren't gonna start a thread every day talking about how happy they are with the product & services. The statistical bias is probably there, however.

Tesla shareholders of course have incentive to defend Tesla.

Tesla Model S owners of course also have incentive to defend the Model S for pride of ownership and resale value.

As to speculators shorting Tesla, I doubt a blog like that is gonna have any meaning impact to the market. Maybe I am wrong. Now stuff like Bill Ackman and Herbalife, that's something else and much more damaging.

 

[dhanson865]

Average is just that, average. Not "behind the curve" will some cars be above average? Sure, some will also be below average. If you have proof that the tesla is not of average reliability, post an unbiased study. Until then I'll believe the only study we have which says the reliability is middle of the pack.

If you believe that average is OK then you agree with the TrueDelta data.

Model S vs. 5-Series Reliability

The BMW 2010 5 series with reliability score of 66 isn't much better than the 2013 Model S with a score of 71. That's close enough that the inaccuracy/bias of the data could negate the difference in score.

Similar with the Mercedes 2010 C class.

Model S vs. C-Class Reliability
5-Series vs. C-Class Reliability


But me I'm looking for my car to be in the good half as in LEAF vs. Prius Reliability where a 2010 or newer doesn't score above 31 and many are in the single digits. As in rock solid reliability so that you never have to go to a dealer or service center. You just rotate your tires and change your cabin air filter and wipers and call it good. I hope the Model 3 can get it down to the 40 or less range because as a mass market car it'll stress the Tesla Service Center network if it doesn't.

Tesla is great. I want them to push the envelope. I just see reliability as one of the metrics they haven't mastered yet.


If you want to see a bad car on TD take a look at

2015 Lincoln MKC 105
MKC vs. Model S Reliability which makes Tesla look better by comparison.

 

[yo mama]

If you believe that average is OK then you agree with the TrueDelta data.

Model S vs. 5-Series Reliability

The BMW 2010 5 series with reliability score of 66 isn't much better than the 2013 Model S with a score of 71. That's close enough that the inaccuracy/bias of the data could negate the difference in score.

Similar with the Mercedes 2010 C class.

5-Series vs. C-Class Reliability


But me I'm looking for my car to be in the good half as in LEAF vs. Prius Reliability where a 2010 or newer doesn't score above 31 and many are in the single digits. As in rock solid reliability so that you never have to go to a dealer or service center. You just rotate your tires and change your cabin air filter and wipers and call it good.

Tesla is great. I want them to push the envelope. I just see reliability as one of the metrics they haven't mastered yet.

Is that really a surprise? Rarely does groundbreaking, sophisticated technology perform flawlessly. I don't mind grading Tesla on reliability, but expecting it to perform the same as a Honda Accord strikes me as unrealistic. For an apples-to-apples comparison we'd need to see how the MS stacks up against other high performance EVs and there just aren't many/any at the moment. Let's see what Porsche's all electric can do in a couple years. Tesla has a little bit of time to make improvements and hopefully additional competition will spur development in that regard.

 

[dhanson865]

Is that really a surprise? Rarely does groundbreaking, sophisticated technology perform flawlessly. I don't mind grading Tesla on reliability, but expecting it to perform the same as a Honda Accord strikes me as unrealistic. For an apples-to-apples comparison we'd need to see how the MS stacks up against other high performance EVs and there just aren't many/any at the moment. Let's see what Porsche's all electric can do in a couple years. Tesla has a little bit of time to make improvements and hopefully additional competition will spur development in that regard.

Two thoughts on your reply.

1. Nissan Leaf was groundbreaking and is far from flawless even when it comes to reliability. It is a step down from the Prius in reliability even though it has less moving parts and should in theory be more reliable.

2. Elon Musk himself touts how Tesla products should be more reliable than gas powered cars. Watch the videos do the reading. He has said it numerous ways and numerous times. Yes both from my own understanding of tech and from my own understanding of Tesla I expect for Tesla products to become more reliable. I didn't hear qualifiers comparing them to only luxury cars or only sports cars. I believe he was speaking as an engineer/designer who knows electric drive trains have proven to be more reliable than a gas engine + transmission style drive trains and I think if you were in meetings with him on the subject you'd hear him demanding better.

If you don't expect Tesla to step up and make their products reliable long term you have lower standards than I have.

 

[Super_Popular]

Tesla is a new company, I would also expect issues (look at the big 3 that have been around forever and are doing constant recalls).....I am fine with it because Tesla has been great with every issue that I have had with the many Model S's I have owned...the very few issues I have had.

 

[kort677]

Two thoughts on your reply.

1. Nissan Leaf was groundbreaking and is far from flawless even when it comes to reliability. It is a step down from the Prius in reliability even though it has less moving parts and should in theory be more reliable.

your source of this info is what?? I owned a LEAF, did you?

 

[yo mama]

Two thoughts on your reply.

1. Nissan Leaf was groundbreaking and is far from flawless even when it comes to reliability. It is a step down from the Prius in reliability even though it has less moving parts and should in theory be more reliable.

2. Elon Musk himself touts how Tesla products should be more reliable than gas powered cars. Watch the videos do the reading. He has said it numerous ways and numerous times. Yes both from my own understanding of tech and from my own understanding of Tesla I expect for Tesla products to become more reliable. I didn't hear qualifiers comparing them to only luxury cars or only sports cars. I believe he was speaking as an engineer/designer who knows electric drive trains have proven to be more reliable than a gas engine + transmission style drive trains and I think if you were in meetings with him on the subject you'd hear him demanding better.

If you don't expect Tesla to step up and make their products reliable long term you have lower standards than I have.

Wait, what? When did I say I don't expect Tesla to make their products more reliable? To the contrary, I stated that I was looking forward to additional competition in the performance EV market to spur precisely that. Let's not perceive disagreement where none exists.

As far as Musk goes, he's a CEO pitchman. What do you expect? We've seen countless CEOs (Ford, GM and VW come to mind) who have acted outright criminally at different times during their corporate history. All things considered, Musk (at least in a comparative sense) is hardly a villain. And I'm actually willing to cut him more slack than CEOs of more "established" car companies because of the unparalleled level of innovation coming out of Tesla. I have faith that improved reliability will follow. It has to, or Tesla will fail as other car companies start to catch up. Musk may see his product through rose colored glasses but he's not stupid.

 

[dhanson865]

your source of this info is what?? I owned a LEAF, did you?

Did you not see my prior posts or my signature on this board?

A. I own a Leaf and it has given me no problems

B. I have seen the stats on truedelta

C. I am a moderator on mynissanleaf.com and have read a vast majority of hundreds of thousands of posts there over the years. Along that same time and from many years prior I read even more messages on priuschat.com both before I bought my Prius and still read some there even now that I own a Prius and a Leaf.

 

[JamesPolk]

Stop drinking the koolaid and get over yourselves.

The Model S is a fantastic vehicle which is produced by a manufacturer which is still in its infancy. It's not as reliable as most tried and true vehicles on the road. All data points to that fact and there is no data that suggests it to be "very reliable". It's not as reliable as a Leaf, Camry, Volt, 5 series, 3 series, etc. You can make all the selection bias or other points to make you feel good about yourself and your car, but it doesn't change reality. Why would they be as capable as creating the reliability that centuries-old manufacturers are able to achieve producing 100x as many cars?

Enjoy your car (at least until your warranty expires).

 

[X-Wing]

Stop drinking the koolaid and get over yourselves.

The Model S is a fantastic vehicle which is produced by a manufacturer which is still in its infancy. It's not as reliable as most tried and true vehicles on the road. All data points to that fact and there is no data that suggests it to be "very reliable". It's not as reliable as a Leaf, Camry, Volt, 5 series, 3 series, etc. You can make all the selection bias or other points to make you feel good about yourself and your car, but it doesn't change reality. Why would they be as capable as creating the reliability that centuries-old manufacturers are able to achieve producing 100x as many cars?

Enjoy your car (at least until your warranty expires).

Look, I have been a really harsh critic of Tesla lately, and I still stand by my opinions. I have also told people to stop drinking the Kool-Aid on this forum, which drove some people nuts.

But let's not pretend for a single second that major automotive manufactures don't screw up. The following list is no where near exhaustive, just whatever came to my mind at the moment. Some I have painfully experienced myself no less.

Audi	B7 S4 Engine (early batch)
BMW	E46 M3 Engine (early batch, revised design 2nd model year)
BMW	N54 High Pressure Fuel Pump
BMW	N63 Engine Premature Battery Failure (due to ECU programming, no permanent solution yet)
Cadillac	CTS-V (1st Gen) Rear Differential
Cadillac	CTS-V (2nd Gen) Wheel Clicking, Supercharger Failure, Sunroof Leak
Chevrolet	LS7 Oil Starvation
Chevrolet	LT1 Engine Failure
Chevrolet	LT4 Engine Overheating & Failure
Ferrari	458 Fire Due to Wrong Glue
Ford	Mustang MT82 Transmission
GM	Ignition Switch
Honda/Acura	V6 Accord, TL & CL Automatic Transmission
Mercedes-Benz	W222 S-Class Headlight Moisture (on their flagship sedan)
Nissan	GTR (CBA) Transmission
Porsche	911 (996 to 997.1) IMS, also applies to Boxster & Cayman
Porsche	Engine Rear Main Seal (RMS)
Porsche	991.1 GT3 Engine Fire
Toyota	Sudden Acceleration

Though it has to be said that Drive Unit failure and other stuff does give me some serious concerns and Tesla do not inspire much confidence lately.

 

[jerry33]

All data points to that fact and there is no data that suggests it to be "very reliable".

So basically, you're discounting all the posts where folks like me have had a reliable car? In any car forum, the majority of posts are about problems with the vehicle.

 

[kort677]

Did you not see my prior posts or my signature on this board?

A. I own a Leaf and it has given me no problems

B. I have seen the stats on truedelta

C. I am a moderator on mynissanleaf.com and have read a vast majority of hundreds of thousands of posts there over the years. Along that same time and from many years prior I read even more messages on priuschat.com both before I bought my Prius and still read some there even now that I own a Prius and a Leaf.

so what is the source of your info?

 

[muleferg]

Its a fact that i have no issues with my S for 18 months.

 

[whiskeyrunner]

Seeking Alpha is a farce of a publication, be very careful "sighting" this as a source of truth. I work for a company that went public, and Seeking Alpha is nothing more than a medium for which they publish any personal opinion under the guise of a real article. Their sole intent is to drive down (or up) the stock price for personal short term gain. If you don't believe me; go to any recent IPO company and look at the first 3 months of "news" articles. you'll see some a$$ clown writing something negative to try and cash in on a short gain. As others have said, the small disclaimer at the end is all you need to know.

 

[green1]

Why bother with studies and surveys when we can jump to wild accusatory conclusions from a handful of anecdotes?

Nobody has said that the MS is the most reliable car out there, Tesla has claimed "more reliable" but I don't think anyone is really buying that.

HOWEVER, there's been no data to indicate that it's any less reliable than most cars either. The only unbiased data collected so far indicates the reliability of the average Tesla is average. Sure, some will have lots of problems, many will have none. There are many tens of thousands of Model S on the road at this point, there are only 5 thousand members of this forum, and only a dozen or so have posted with major issues, those are actually incredibly good numbers, especially when you realize that far more people seek out forums when they're having problems than when everything goes as expected.

If you have an unbiased study showing Tesla reliability post it, but don't bother with anecdotes, samples of one, or studies that require the owner to seek them out to add to the data.

So far Tesla who are the only ones with the actual data are saying "more reliable than other vehicles" I don't really believe them, but it can't be too much less than or their warranty costs would be out of control, and we're just not seeing that in the financial statements.
The next best we have is CR who actively seek out owners and survey them, it's not 100% but it's a decent sample, and they say reliability has been average.
No other study has been done (to my knowledge) that didn't have significant selection bias or sample size issues, or both.

Stop relying purely on emotion, and look at facts if you want to know the reliability of the Model S fleet.

 

[dhanson865]

Look, I have been a really harsh critic of Tesla lately, and I still stand by my opinions. I have also told people to stop drinking the Kool-Aid on this forum, which drove some people nuts.

But let's not pretend for a single second that major automotive manufactures don't screw up. The following list is no where near exhaustive, just whatever came to my mind at the moment. Some I have painfully experienced myself no less.

Toyota	Sudden Acceleration

Toyota has plenty of failures but sudden acceleration isn't one of them. I do thank that scare for letting me buy a Prius really cheap though.

I would have gone with engine sludge.

Vehicles affected include:

Model year(s)	Make/Model
1997-1999	Toyota Celica 4-cyl.
1997-2001	Toyota Camry 4-cyl.
1997-2002	Toyota Camry and Avalon V6
2001-2002	Toyota Highlander V6
1998-2002	Toyota Sienna V6
1999-2001	Toyota Solara 4-cyl.
1999-2002	Toyota Solara V6
1997-2002	Lexus ES300
1999-2002	Lexus RX300

Vehicle Engine Sludge | Consumer Reports