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Do I order or wait?

M3in559

Member
Nov 3, 2018
16
5
Fresno
I had been waiting to order a STD Range model 3 (was going to order a MR last year but cancelled cause I was nervous about the payment). Now that I just finished with a refinancing of my home, I feel a little more comfortable, but am wondering if I should gamble and risk waiting for the last two weeks of the quarter. If I remember correctly, it seems like the last portion of the quarter, there is a rush to make special sales. I know I missed out on the 5k supercharger miles, but does anyone think there will be anything similar in the last couple of weeks?

I called sales adviser and they were able to locate the build I wanted. Should I jump on it?

(For those who may rightfully chastise me for not jumping on the 5k, I hear ya, but I couldn’t do it as my refinance process started right before the announcement was made. Finalized yesterday. It sucks for me but I couldn’t speed up the process.)
 

Zaxxon

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Dec 11, 2012
4,679
21,934
Colorado
There's one constant that I've learned in watching Tesla for years, and now owning a Tesla for over a year (and soon a 2nd): every day you wait, that's one day that you could have driven a Tesla and chose not to.

Sales come and go, new features will always be right down the pipe, etc. But your (and my) days are numbered, and we can't get them back.
 

dsvick

Closed
Jun 10, 2016
2,198
2,281
NE Ohio
If I remember correctly, it seems like the last portion of the quarter, there is a rush to make special sales.
No, the rush is usually to deliver as many as they can in as short a time as they can. Sales are rarely the issue at the end of the quarter, unless they're trying to get rid of inventory cars. You may see a slight price drop at the beginning of July to compensate for the reduced tax credit but, if there is a price change, it won't be as much as the tax credit reduction. All things considered, you should probably order sooner rather than later.
 

Leafdriver333

Somewhat Active Member
Mar 21, 2019
1,070
908
usa
Call the number and ask for a discount.
If you have been lurking for a while you know what number I am taking about. Or how to get the number.

Edit: Never mind. You are ordering a SR.
No discount for that trim.

Btw, 5000 or 1000 mile supercharging expires in 6 months. Unless you use supercharger a lot, you will let them go to waste anyway. And home charging is recommended.
 
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ZOMGVTEK

Member
May 19, 2015
559
442
'Merica
The value of those 5K supercharger miles isnt that much, I wouldn't worry about it.

If they have the trim you want available, id say you should swing for it before the tax incentive drops. It's unlikely anything too fancy or must have is going to be dropping within 6-12 months. And price drops at this point that are in excess of what you would loose with the tax credit sound unlikely. Surely don't stretch yourself too thin if you're not comfortable with it. Although at this point the next logical step to wait for would be the new '1,000,000 mile' battery. This is likely 18-24 months away, I suspect. I don't see it being worthwhile just yet.
 
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cbaaz

Member
Feb 1, 2019
177
112
arizona
I had been waiting to order a STD Range model 3 (was going to order a MR last year but cancelled cause I was nervous about the payment). Now that I just finished with a refinancing of my home.....................

If you are nervous and you had to refinance your home to be able to "afford" (even mentally) the payment, I would not be buying any new car right now. Step back, save your money and then buy when you can put down a huge down payment or, ideally, pay cash.
 
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ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,281
4,715
Philly area
save your money and then buy when you can put down a huge down payment or, ideally, pay cash.

While this may be fine, practical advice in general, I have to caution against applying it to a Tesla.

You see, we put down a huge down payment for the Model 3. It took about two weeks before my wife and I discovered that we both hated driving our other vehicle.

But we don't have a second huge down payment on hand.

In hindsight, would have been way better to have two half-huge-down-payments than one full-huge-down-payment.

Just hadn't fully anticipated the "Tesla Effect." :)
 
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DWdrum

Member
May 14, 2019
84
60
Auburn, CA
@M3in559

Been thinking the same thing. And because I waited, I'm now paying $400 more. Just got a 2.99% loan, $15k down, financing about $30k, ordering on June 11th, SR with Black INT, White EXT. Selling the stock wheels, putting on 20's, tinting windows....DONE!

I saw just pull the trigger and join the club. Good Luck man

Mike
 
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OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,764
4,279
Southern California
End of quarter discounts are going to be highly correlated with inventory levels. Currently EV-CPO shows only 26 Model 3’s available in the entire country, which is extremely thin. Those could get sold within the next few hours. And people who just recently placed orders are being told end of this month for deliveries, which if correct would indicate that the predicted supply for the rest of the month is going to fulfill existing orders right up to the end of the month.

Adding to all of this I expect that there will be a lot of last minute buyers on the fence who panic because the tax credit is about to get cut in half and decide to buy at the last minute, which will absorb any remaining inventory. So while we won’t know for sure until the end of the month, all the indicators I am seeing suggest that Tesla will not need to offer discounts for the remainder of Q2.

Remember that in December 2018 there were no discounts being offered as the full tax credit incentive was enough to move sales. Q1 was different because we still had three months remaining on the existing tax credits so there was no push to get a car before the end of the quarter.
 
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ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,281
4,715
Philly area
Q1 was different because we still had three months remaining on the existing tax credits so there was no push to get a car before the end of the quarter.

Also because holy crap the delivery numbers would have been abysmal if they hadn't made a push at the end of the first quarter!

Though, if a new quarterly record is within reach (per that e-mail), it's still possible they'll bend over backward to deliver a few more cars in June...
 
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Southpasfan

Member
Jun 2, 2019
465
609
Pasadena
I haven't seen anything to indicate that a standard range is going to be a better deal at the end of this quarter, or at all. There may well be "some model" in inventory somewhere at the end of the quarter but this assumes a flexibility in the type of Model 3 I don't see in your question.

The only point in "waiting" would be to wait a couple of years until other manufacturers come on line with their versions, but that might be two or three years, which I also don't think is the question.

People are buying them faster than they can build them. That's not opinion, its fact. That's not really an economic driver to wait a short while.
 
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vickh

Active Member
Dec 16, 2018
3,149
709
az
inventory somewhere can sold as SR+ too.

I agree that $35K-$3.8K will probably be the lowest price for a SR for the foreseeable future. maybe SC incentives etc.
 
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M3in559

Member
Nov 3, 2018
16
5
Fresno
WOW! And this is one of the many reasons why i am in love with the Tesla community. I want to thank you all for your answers, suggestions and help!

There's one constant that I've learned in watching Tesla for years, and now owning a Tesla for over a year (and soon a 2nd): every day you wait, that's one day that you could have driven a Tesla and chose not to.

Sales come and go, new features will always be right down the pipe, etc. But your (and my) days are numbered, and we can't get them back.

THIS IS COMPLETELY TRUE! I have thought about this a few times, and I need to enjoy life. I am very fiscally conservative and have been the type to never try and purchase more than I need, however, i need to splurge every once in a while and enjoy the fruits of my labor while i can.

If you are nervous and you had to refinance your home to be able to "afford" (even mentally) the payment, I would not be buying any new car right now. Step back, save your money and then buy when you can put down a huge down payment or, ideally, pay cash.

I would love to be able to pay it all in cash, however, that is not possible at the current time. I have a 2005 Chevy that is starting to get close to its last legs. I tend to keep my vehicles for a very long time, but i dont want to dump any money into it when the KBB value just isn't there anymore. The refinance on the home was not to pay for the vehicle though. The refinance was to remove the FHA Mortgage insurance and convert my loan into a conventional. Wasn't at all about the car purchase (however, its an added benefit).

Btw, 5000 or 1000 mile supercharging expires in 6 months. Unless you use supercharger a lot, you will let them go to waste anyway. And home charging is recommended.

Unsure why I didn't think about the time limit. I failed to think about it. Its possible much of the 5k would have gone to waste.
 

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