Do I wait for "Battery Day" to order Model 3?Or are we not expecting major changes post battery day?

[mattseba]

Background: I (24M) am currently leasing an F-150 that goes back in July. I am currently over allowed milage on my lease so I am not against terminating my lease (and paying excess) at any point.

I have narrowed my decision to a Tesla Model 3 LR. Should I order now and take delivery as soon as they match me with a VIN or do I wait to order until Battery day as we heard on the earnings call from Elon "Battery Day people. Wait until Battery Day. It's gonna blow your mind. It blows my mind, and I know it!" I don't want to "lose out" on new tech that might come.

I of course want to take delivery ASAP as I have been waiting to go electric and get into a Tesla for many years.

Let me know what you all think. I appreciate your input!

 

[Nalyd]

It's doubtful any announced tech on investors day will make it into production instantly

 

[GZDongles]

Background: I (24M) am currently leasing an F-150 that goes back in July. I am currently over allowed milage on my lease so I am not against terminating my lease (and paying excess) at any point.

I have narrowed my decision to a Tesla Model 3 LR. Should I order now and take delivery as soon as they match me with a VIN or do I wait to order until Battery day as we heard on the earnings call from Elon "Battery Day people. Wait until Battery Day. It's gonna blow your mind. It blows my mind, and I know it!" I don't want to "lose out" on new tech that might come.

I of course want to take delivery ASAP as I have been waiting to go electric and get into a Tesla for many years.

Let me know what you all think. I appreciate your input!

I'm delaying my delivery to see what the economic impact of the coronavirus will be on my industry and company, but I am also curious about the outcome from the Battery and Powertrain Day. This is probably unrelated to the Battery Day, but I would like to see the heat pump from the Model Y put back into the Model 3 production system (unless there is a technical or cost reason that people think this won't happen, i.e. size constraints on the 3 vs. the Y or the lower cost of the base 3 making this infeasible).

I agree that anything we see at battery day probably won't make it immediately into production, but seeing a roadmap for battery improvements could help guide your purchasing decision.

 

[electracity]

Tesla is not going to kill sales by announcing a future improved battery.

 

[karmamule]

Tesla almost always seems to have some big announcement waiting in the wings. Once more info on the battery comes up there will be some other eagerly awaited nugget of info coming out. Right now the order lag is pretty high given end-of-quarter timing so you'll have plenty of time to cancel if something major crops up.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Order at the beginning of April to ensure that you get your car before the end of June.
Then cross your fingers.

 

[Sophias_dad]

Tesla is not going to kill sales by announcing a future improved battery.

Osborne effect - Wikipedia

 

[StephenBrown2]

I expect all vehicles since a certain date several weeks to months ago to be already incorporating whatever they "announce" on battery day, like with Autonomy day and the FSD computer.

 

[Knightshade]

Any totally new battery tech will almost certainly appear first in the Model S (currently using the oldest tech) and likely only in Plaid models at first since they're just now spinning up their own battery production in small volume.

Then likely on the X and Roadster 2.0 as those get plaid options.

After that they need very dense batteries for the semi and and cybertruck too.

At the very bottom of the "need" list for denser batteries is the 3 and Y that are already selling faster than they can make em and offering segment-leading range with the current batteries (and also would need them in vastly larger #s than S/X/Roadster/Semi too).


So I I were looking at buying an S (and maybe and X) I'd wait for battery day.

3/Y? Don't hold your breath for major changes in less than another year or two at least.

 

[strider]

There is no way they are going to make a change to the Y this soon into production. They need to show Wall Street that they can ramp Y production quickly, they won't jeopardize that by making a battery change mid-ramp.

 

[DanCar]

Did you order?

 

[Gasaraki]

I'm delaying my delivery to see what the economic impact of the coronavirus will be on my industry and company, but I am also curious about the outcome from the Battery and Powertrain Day. This is probably unrelated to the Battery Day, but I would like to see the heat pump from the Model Y put back into the Model 3 production system (unless there is a technical or cost reason that people think this won't happen, i.e. size constraints on the 3 vs. the Y or the lower cost of the base 3 making this infeasible).

I agree that anything we see at battery day probably won't make it immediately into production, but seeing a roadmap for battery improvements could help guide your purchasing decision.

Doubt the heat pump is making it way to the Model 3. If you watched the teardown of the Y, the heat pump requires a lot of reworking in the 3 for it to fit.

 

[hcdavis3]

Doubt the heat pump is making it way to the Model 3. If you watched the teardown of the Y, the heat pump requires a lot of reworking in the 3 for it to fit.

I like my AC on my 3 just fine. Don’t need a heat pump.

 

[HyperionMark]

I am also in the group that thinks any changes will happen before or right about the same time the battery day occurs. They would just kill sales for months and months if they said such and such change won't happen for however long.

 

[GZDongles]

Doubt the heat pump is making it way to the Model 3. If you watched the teardown of the Y, the heat pump requires a lot of reworking in the 3 for it to fit.

I ended up taking delivery of my Model 3. I couldn't justify waiting for minor improvements like USB-C, heat pumps, etc.

New batteries would have been nice for resale value, but I agree with the others who said those improvements are most likely to come to the Model S Plaid and Roadster first. As I've driven my car, I've realized I will only have a small handful of edge cases where more range would be useful, even in the winter in Michigan. Sure, more is always better, but I think the Model 3 as it stands now is a good balance of cost, performance, and range.

 

[HyperionMark]

At some point they will need to up the pack sizes on all vehicles due to their promises on CyberTruck. Keep in mind they promised a 500+ mile vehicle (which is likely at least 150 kWh's) for just $70k.

 

[Knightshade]

At some point they will need to up the pack sizes on all vehicles due to their promises on CyberTruck. Keep in mind they promised a 500+ mile vehicle (which is likely at least 150 kWh's) for just $70k.

or they just double-stack a 75kwh pack.

Much like the roadster would double-stack a 100kwh one.

 

[GZDongles]

or they just double-stack a 75kwh pack.

Much like the roadster would double-stack a 100kwh one.

Would a double stacked 7kWh pack actually be enough to get 500 miles of EPA range on a CyberTruck? My assumption is that the aero will be slightly worse and the weight slightly higher than Model X, which gets 351 miles on 100 kWh. That would imply that they'll need to really sharpen their pencils on aero, weight, and efficiency to hit 500 miles on 150kWh, but it'll be at least in the realm of possibility. How they'll do that profitably at $70k for battery costs of $15-20k at best while still making it "feel" like a $70k vehicle quality wise is another story.

 

[Knightshade]

Would a double stacked 7kWh pack actually be enough to get 500 miles of EPA range on a CyberTruck? My assumption is that the aero will be slightly worse and the weight slightly higher than Model X, which gets 351 miles on 100 kWh. That would imply that they'll need to really sharpen their pencils on aero, weight, and efficiency to hit 500 miles on 150kWh, but it'll be at least in the realm of possibility. How they'll do that profitably at $70k for battery costs of $15-20k at best while still making it "feel" like a $70k vehicle quality wise is another story.

Well the guy I was quoting cited needing 150kwh, I just pointed out how a double stacked 75 gets you that without denser batteries.

It's almost certain the semi will be using the cheaper next-gen ones though so that answers your other question.

 

[RScottyL]

Tesla is not going to kill sales by announcing a future improved battery.

Since battery day is toward the end of the quarter, I would assume that they would have already sold most of the cars for the quarter push and should be able to start the new quarter with whatever modifications they are making!