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Do you think a 10-15 Year Old S is completely worthless?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by P85DBeast, Feb 18, 2017.

  1. P85DBeast

    P85DBeast Side tEsLa

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    Do you? Wanted to hear your thoughts/Opinions
    Personally I dont know yet sometimes im leaning towards yes other times no.
     
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  2. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    No. Take a look at salvage auctions for totaled cars now. The battery and components will always have some value, and will set the base price of the car.
     
  3. dragoljub

    dragoljub Member

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    If it drives and charges its not worthless. I would be happy if my Model S daily drive got me to 10 years of utility. Any more years on top of that I would consider a bonus.
     
  4. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

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    I have a 18 year old Land Rover which is reliable and I use for heavy snow and to haul stuff. Has great value to me.
    My Tesla should be more reliable and durable. I plan to keep it"forever".
     
  5. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Ditto. I kept my Series III Land Rover for twenty years, and it still had value. I hope that my Model S will be the last car I purchase for myself.

    However, if the OP is thinking that he will recoup all or most of the original purchase price--ain't gonna happen.
     
  6. animorph

    animorph Member

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    My almost 15 year old Porsche 996 was worth about 30% of what I paid for it. We don't know how durable a Tesla will be. It seems likely that a 10 year old Tesla may need a new battery for full performance and range. On the other hand, they will be a "cheap" entry into a full size electric car, a significant performance car, and I think a ground breaking historic car.
     
  7. Half Dollar Bill

    Half Dollar Bill Traveller, teacher, poet, accountant

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    Why differentiate between any other 15 year old vehicle?
    Sure, if every car on the road in another 10 years HAS to have AP, then no, the early Tesla's should only have parts value. But I doubt that transformation is going to happen THAT quickly, so what would make an MS different than any other car from a certain calendar year?
    You thinking all of a sudden the battery degrades and you can only get 20 miles on a trip? That might be annoying.
    All of a sudden Tesla stops upgrading the software on older vins? It happens in the computer industry and an MS is a lot like a computer. But that doesn't make those older PC's useless, it just makes them less optimal. Same thing can be said of many classic ICE cars on the road today.
    Value is either what something is worth to you or what someone is willing to give you in exchange for what you have. If a car is still doing its job and getting you where you need to go, then it's valuable to you. If someone's willing to give you money for your car, then it's valuable to them.
    I suppose we'll all have a big choice when the eight year battery and motor warranty expires. I'm on track to be over 200,000 miles by then; it'll be the most miles I've ever put on a car and the most fun I've ever had doing it.
     
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  8. azred

    azred Member

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    There are of course too many variables to possibly predict our Teslas values in ten or fifteen years, the biggest unknown being Tesla's future as a company. I noticed you mentioned the diminished value of your Porsche 996, which as you know are typically worth half or less of comparable -- yet older -- 993s, one of which I sold two months ago for more than I paid for it 14 years ago. But of course, when I bought my 993 as a lightly used car 14 years ago I had no idea that it would do much better than the then new 996s in the resale market many years later. I was just lucky.

    As for my new S, I only hope replacement batteries will be available within a decade. Reasonable depreciation would be a nice, unexpected bonus.
     
  9. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

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    #9 mspohr, Feb 18, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2017
    I think the largest repair expense for a Tesla would be to replace the battery. I believe this is currently about $20,000 but should drop quite a bit over the next 10 years. It's hard to say what to expect from the batteries but the evidence so far is that they are holding up well.
    I wouldn't be opposed to paying $10,000 for a new battery 10 years from now if it came to that. I've probably paid more than that in maintenance and repairs over the past 18 years to keep my Land Rover on the road.
    The car's aluminum body should be solid and the motors should last a long time (? a million miles). Everything else is minor. The things that kill ICE cars are body rot and engine/transmission wear. Tesla doesn't have either of these problems.
     
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  10. Nikxice

    Nikxice Member

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    It seems reasonable to assume that my 2014 S85 will still charge to 200 plus miles in 2024. If it is well maintained and gets the range of a current 60, seems like a lot of value there!
     
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  11. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    When the Prius first came out in North America, batteries were quoted between $8K and $10K (depending upon the source). By the time anyone had to purchase one they were $2500 and third-party rebuilt batteries were $1500. I expect a similar reduction in price for the Tesla battery (of course, there's a good chance the replacement will have a greater capacity than the original and so reduce some of the savings).
     
  12. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    #12 FlatSix911, Feb 18, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2017
    It really depends on the specific model of car ... I think the early Model S will do well long term.

    As an example ... the Porsche model just before the 996, is worth 130% of the price I paid originally.
    The 1998 993 was the last of the air-cooled engines and has actually increased in value and rarity. :cool:
     
  13. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    Agreed ... just saw your post :cool:

     
  14. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    Here is an interesting article on Tesla depreciation compared to other vehicles.
    I think the value of the original Model S will bottom out in 10 years and then hold steady with possible long term appreciation.

    Tesla Model S True Ownership Cost, Including Depreciation - Video

    upload_2017-2-18_10-2-29.png

    Video Description via Teslanomics by Ben Sullins on YouTube:

    The Tesla Model S is in a class of its own in nearly all categories you look at. When it comes to depreciation, it also outperforms all the other Electric Vehicles (EVs) as well as the gas-powered (ICE) cars with a similar price tag. If you’re looking in the higher-end affordable luxury market, or the real luxury market you will be hard-pressed to find a better value for your dollar.

    The four broad categories of expenses to look at when calculating the exact price of a car, EV or otherwise, are fuel, insurance, maintenance/repairs, and depreciation. The first three are out-of-pocket expenses that require you to spend money however depreciation is the largest of the four categories by far. The main difference with depreciation is that you don’t spend this money, rather, you lose the money when you go to sell the vehicle. Unlike other ICE cars or EVs I bet you won’t want to actually ever sell your Tesla, but in case you do, I wanted to provide some insight using the data I found.


    The data from Autolist.com shows that when comparing a Tesla Model S to other luxury vehicles with a similar price tag, it retains its value from 30-60% better over a span of 30-100k miles. Since the Tesla Model S engine is rated to go nearly 500K miles the typical comparison of five years doesn’t really make sense since it would be almost impossible to drive that distance in that time.

     
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  15. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    Why would it be worthless solely based on age? If it charges and otherwise works well, it's worth something because it is an excellent mode of transportation. It may not be worth much, but it's still a functioning car. My 10 year old Prius was worth something when I sold it, suspect a 10 year old Model S will be as well.
     
  16. Bet TSLA

    Bet TSLA Member

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    Pretty much salvage value. It's not a car, it's a gadget. How much is even the best 10yo gadget worth? What's an original 2007 iPhone worth beyond it's historical value? It's pretty useless.

    In 15 years cars that aren't self-driving will have very limited utility. Heading towards hobbyist use only. You wouldn't want one as a daily driver because the alternatives will be so much more capable. Cars that require gasoline will be totally useless except in niche applications.
     
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  17. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Supporting Member

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    Also, I remember reading a story about one of Tesloop's Model S' that have more than 200,000 miles, and show minimal battery degradation. If they hold up that well, I see no reason why they shouldn't hold their value well.
     
  18. mbhforum

    mbhforum Member

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    I think a lot is also going to depend on how Tesla is doing as a company. They certainly are going to need to have better service center options. The next couple of years with the M3 release will be critical to the long term success of Tesla and that will probably be the biggest indicator of long term value of their vehicles.
     
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  19. azred

    azred Member

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    Well that certainly is a viewpoint that will guarantee no one will accuse you of following the crowd.
     
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  20. thegruf

    thegruf Active Member

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    All depends on the battery.
    In 10 years time the parts/servicing market will have opened up.

    If batteries are still good at that time and not failing then they will be worth considerable money.

    If batteries are failing but replacements are available at <$10K at that time then price will be adjusted accordingly.
    Consider in this scenario: car+new replacement battery could well have another 100K+ miles in it for v. low maintenance cost/risk which primarily would be refurb motor, driveshafts/steering/suspension/brakes just like any other car and much lower risk than ICE with engine/gearbox cats/exhaust to be concerned about.

    If batteries are failing but replacements are still $20K+ then the cars wil be parts value only
     

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