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Does $8B worth of reservations justify another Gigafactory?
- Thread starter Nuclear Fusion
- Start date
wbhokie
Member
I wouldn't read much into it yet. $100 refundable reservations don't mean much. It's basically 0 commitment to get in line to wait and see what comes of it. Even I placed a deposit and have no idea if I'll get one. It will likely change a bit before production, and there is a lot of time between now and then.
Zybane
Member
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
Curious George
Member
Difficult to judge the sustained demand from this. A ot of people just put down a deposit to express their support.
This one is close to the Powerwall and power pack reveal. There was $800M worth of orders in first 7 days.
Model 3 needed a $1000 deposit and had over 420k res.
Tesla still hasn't sold a total of 420k Model 3 in 2 years, and last year US reservation list was already finished before EOY.
420,000 Net Reservations after 28,000 Model 3 Deliveries | Tesla
This one is close to the Powerwall and power pack reveal. There was $800M worth of orders in first 7 days.
Model 3 needed a $1000 deposit and had over 420k res.
Tesla still hasn't sold a total of 420k Model 3 in 2 years, and last year US reservation list was already finished before EOY.
420,000 Net Reservations after 28,000 Model 3 Deliveries | Tesla
mspohr
Well-Known Member
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Many people have commented that this truck will be very simple to produce... no stamping presses, no paintshop. Just laser cut flat steel sheets, bend and fold. Since GF1 is making motors and battery packs already, it would be easy to add a simple assembly line to cut and paste the sheet metal around the motors and batteries. Lots of room at GF1.
Definitely agree assembly will be simpler and should take up less space along with less capex always a good thing. The Model Y which is expected to sell better than the Model 3 is already earmarked for GF1 so space may be a problem. GF2 might be a better option but we shall see.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
How DARE you inject facts and figures in this emotional debate. ROFL
Seriously, it's $100 and zero actual commitment. I see people in other threads saying that the deposit is so low because people two years from now may not know if they can afford the $50k. Uh... wut? That's the point! That's what a deposit is for. Saying you have 150k fully refundable deposits of $100 for trucks that cost $50k and up that won't be available for two years has got to be one of the best examples of worthless data points I can think of and yet people are going on and on about what they think it proves.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
People don't spend $100 just to "vote" for something. They may or may not ultimately purchase but at least they think now that they'll want to buy one when it's available.
They will build the CyberTruck in the US. Pickups are king in the Americas, but not elsewhere. I think GF1 or an adjacent location would be perfect for building trucks. Close to main engineering in Palo Alto and the manufacturing expertise in Fremont. Also lower cost of living for people from the Fremont plant making the big commute from the Central Valley.
Also, if their every do buy an EV pickup, it will have to perform as well for the same money as a CyberTruck. Once you have seen those specs you cannot unsee them. And give the current prices of F-150s, Rams, Silveradoes, etc this is something the Big 3 cannot do with new EV platforms. And since the big 3 are so dependent on pickups and SUVs to generate profits, this questions their ability to stay in business.
They should have made the reservation payment 5k - 10k depending on the model so the numbers would be more reliable.
Disagree. People hear the number of deposits and say "wow" that is not what I expected. They don't give much thought to whether it was $100 or $2,500 like the Y reservation. Tesla is getting great publicity form this and that is very important for the brand. There would not be nearly the hype if the reservation was $5k-$10k and they only had 15k-20k reservations.
Tesla runs better than 20% gross margin. Even that low it's 1.6 billion. With minimal SG&A needed, that is most bottom line profit.
Could be 2 billion profit depending on take rates.
Oh we are getting the truck, in two years. Don't have 10k-20k on hand for reservations though.
ding ding ding
Musk largest problem is good deals on building production for both vehicles and batteries
You missed the point of this thread. It doesn't justify a new factory because the reservation numbers are not going to be a reliable indicator of the trucks delivered. Yea it is good advertisement for tesla like how apple does it with preorders but the numbers don't justify another factory.
Model 3 had 420k reservations and they still have not sold that many. They supposedly finished the reservation list last year. They don't release the cancellation numbers for obvious reasons. I would guess the reservations were at least more reliable at 1k. I bet the cancellations were substantial.
They couldn't have finished the reservation list last year when the only started delivering model 3's outside of the US this year.
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