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Does anyone think TSLA will be under $200 in 3 years?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by rdalcanto, Aug 4, 2013.

  1. rdalcanto

    rdalcanto Member

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    Or $300?
    I am a newbie, and talk of calls and puts is making my head spin. It seems like a lot of investors here are trading for monthly income. I'm planning on holding long term (at least 3 years, maybe 20). So the bigger question for me when it comes to investing large amounts in TLSA right now, is really about how people see the company in several years, and not just the next few months. Articles on the web that are anti-Tesla seem to be from investment experts who don't really see the bigger picture regarding Tesla, it's supercharges, it's patents, the fact that EVs are going to be a big part of the future of automobiles, and that Tesla has a major head start on other companies. Thoughts?
     
  2. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    It all depends on whether you think they will be successful developing and marketing GenIII.
     
  3. benfranklin

    benfranklin Member

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    I doubt they are less than $200 in 3 years, but we're already at $138--the difference between a three year run up to $200 v. $300 is massive. $200 is a nice market beating return and certainly worth investing in but nothing exceptional, either.

    I love Tesla and TSLA but there are plenty of scenarios that end with major setbacks for the company or the stock, including setbacks that bring it below its current price (e.g., loss of crucial CEO, dramatic recall/incidents scaring people away, etc.) A continued march up in price all depends on whether Tesla can get the GenIII to a large market with the expected margins and there are few industries as unforgiving as the auto industry.

    I think they'll do it and double the current market cap in 3 to 4 years but I wouldn't bet my life savings on it as some here seem to be doing.
     
  4. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    So much has been been said and written concerning the valuation of Tesla Motors, factoring in perfect execution. So little has been said been said or written about this management team's dogged determination. Do I anticipate perfection? Never. Would I bet against the long term performance of this team?

    That would be irrational skepticism.

    Yes, this stock will be over $200.
     
  5. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    I think as long as:
    1. Demand for Model S/X remains robust and growing.
    2. Tesla continues to execute well (including GenIII prototype, alpha, beta, etc)

    Then, the stock (in my mind) should be much higher than $200 in 3 years. It should be over $300 by then as well unless we're in the middle of a recession at that time.
     
  6. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    As a long-term investor, I will chime in by saying I believe you are asking the wrong question. I've already voiced my schoolmarmy disapproval at the playing with options here, so I'll pass that by with no further comment.

    For me, the appropriate question is "Will TSLA have under- or outperformed the S&P 500 come three years out?" In answer to which, I have positioned myself with an outsized fraction of my portfolio in TM stock.
     
  7. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    In simple terms, share price should reflect current earnings and future potential; pretty clearly the current TSLA price is based largely on future potential. While I believe there's still plenty of potential to come, I also believe that Tesla is over-valued right now and there's likely to be some corrections along the way. Whether the stock hits $200 or $300 in the medium term probably depends on how quickly they can demonstrate serious earnings.

    (Running for cover right now.....)
     
  8. Convert2013

    Convert2013 Member

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    I agree. Nothing like real earnings to support a stock price. At this point I can't tell if thie market will price TSLA like AAPL or AMZN during their growth periods. There was a report out this week ( on CNBC I think) that compared the stock price performance thus far almost identical to AMZN during its early days. If that keeps up investors may be willing to accept smaller margins as long as there is solid top line growth, hence $200+ is possible by year end.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Here is that video:

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000187706&__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Cvideo%7C&par=yahoo
     
  9. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    I saw that video yesterday and cringed while watching it.

    Reason being is sure AMZN zoomed up to $100/share in 1999, but then it crashed in 2001 and took until 2009 to get back to over $100. They didn't share about that in the CNBC video. I would NOT want TSLA to follow AMZN's stock pattern at all.
     
  10. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    To be fair, that run-up was because of the Internet Bubble, and so was the crash. Maybe we are in Net Bubble II now, in which case such behavior is possible again. But I think if Tesla crashes it'll be because of something Tesla- or Musk- specific. Note that during that down period, Amazon changed the way the world bought things. Tesla is changing the way we get around. There are still some good parallels.
     
  11. ppl

    ppl Member

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    I don't see the connection between the two stocks at all
    . Amzn operated on no margin and doesn't plan to for a while. They are expanding as quickly as they can. None of their services are new except for cloud. Tsla offering better car, chargers etc. they are expanding as quickly as they can BUT with large margins A very different philosophy.Amzn reminds me a lot of aol. Free discs everywhere no profit no margin just growth. Tsla different
     
  12. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    Yeah, I cringed because the connection between the two companies was very weak. They showed charts showing AMZN hitting $100 in 2001 and compared it to TSLA hitting $130, and said "Look the charts are so similar".
     
  13. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    All "up" charts look similar if you want them to enough.
     
  14. rdalcanto

    rdalcanto Member

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    If Telsa were to hit 300, what would its value be compared to Ford? As much as I think Tesla will be successful, it still has only one factory and a plan for 3 products 5 years from now. At a certain point, earnings has to be part of the equation right....
     

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