Does it make sense to postpone my Model X?

[RDoc]

I've got a pretty early Model X reservation (1417) but, while not having cold feet, am feeling a few tootsie chills about getting such an early production instance. Currently there are somewhere around 7000 reservations which I'd take a SWAG at being about 5 - 6 month's production, so around June 2015 or so, assuming they start with Sigs in Dec. 2014. My guess is that with my current reservation number I'll get my X in Feb 2015 or so.

Based on the experiences of people with early vs later Model S's, not to mention common sense, I'm wondering if it would be a good idea to wait another 4-5 months and get a more worked out car by asking Tesla to move me from my current position to the current back of the line. I don't want it to be 2016 when I get the car, but June vs Feb might be a good trade off if the car is more refined and more reliable. Then, there's the possibility that they might make 100 kWh batteries or other goodies available in the interim as well!

Thoughts?

 

[Discoducky]

Add 1 year to your estimates . Sigs start holiday 2014 so your number will be up in mid 2015 is a conservative estimate.

 

[qwk]

You don't have to get a different reservation #, just wait to configure the car when you are ready.

 

[MikeL]

I don't think it's far fetched to predict far less of the "later models are more refined" thing happening w the Model X. Perhaps some, but less. They are just better at making cars, in general now. X mainly on the same platform, factory at speed, workers trained, etc.
and what Discoducky said, add a year, which although a bit painful, should make them even better still!

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I'd recommend waiting if the additional few months are not a bother. Despite the experience with the S, Tesla would still have new challenges with the X; the falcon wings in particular. Let the early adopters of the X shake those bugs out for you

 

[CmdrThor]

You can defer once after you are contacted:

6. Deferral and Non-Transferability
If you do not wish to enter into a Purchase Agreement at the time thatyou are contacted by Tesla, you have the option to relinquish yourreservation sequence position and defer to a later position to bedetermined by us (only one deferral is permitted). If you do notcommunicate your decision to us within ten (10) days of notificationunder paragraph 4, you will automatically be granted such a deferral.This Agreement is not transferable or assignable to another party withoutthe prior written approval of a Tesla authorized representative.

 

[RDoc]

Add 1 year to your estimates . Sigs start holiday 2014 so your number will be up in mid 2015 is a conservative estimate.

Whoops, sorry, you're correct, I mistyped the dates - at least I was consistent...

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You don't have to get a different reservation #, just wait to configure the car when you are ready.

My concern is that if I wait for another year, the number of reservations may be huge, quite possibly a year's production, which would push our delivery back to 2016.

I've just noticed that with the S, people seemed to see pretty significant differences over the first 6 month's production.

The other thing I've noticed is that they've been adding options to the S over time. It sounds reasonable that they would produce a relatively less complex version of the car at first, then as they got the production under control, start adding things.

 

[JohnQ]

Whoops, sorry, you're correct, I mistyped the dates - at least I was consistent...

- - - Updated - - -


My concern is that if I wait for another year, the number of reservations may be huge, quite possibly a year's production, which would push our delivery back to 2016.

I've just noticed that with the S, people seemed to see pretty significant differences over the first 6 month's production.

The other thing I've noticed is that they've been adding options to the S over time. It sounds reasonable that they would produce a relatively less complex version of the car at first, then as they got the production under control, start adding things.

All true, but people also got hit with price increases over that time. I don't know if that will happen with the X or not but it may be a risk.

 

[ChadS]

According to Consumer Reports' survey, the 2012 Model Ses are significantly more reliable than the 2013's. My VIN #112 has been great. While it is true that they improve the assembly process over time, it may also be true that they spend less time on QA. I'm not saying an early Model X is definitely going to be better; but there's enough doubt that I wouldn't base my decision on when to get one on that.

It is true that more features will come later. But that will be true no matter when you buy. It's like buying a computer - if you need one, and the current offerings meet your needs, get one. Otherwise you will always be waiting and miss out on the benefits of having one. If they don't meet your needs yet (and/or your needs are already filled, i.e. if you already have an EV that is doing the trick), then it makes sense to wait. As JohnQ pointed out, waiting could also put you at risk of a price increase. Or decontenting. I would think chances of those would be lower than with the S, but who knows.

Disco noted it might take longer to get it than you think anyway. I'd follow qwk's advice and keep the reservation you have, and defer or configure later if you feel it is too soon when the time comes.