Does the M3 Intro kill M/X sales increase?

[Petra]

I do really wonder how many people are in a similar case. Like you, I much prefer smaller cars. Would definitely get the 3 (or Y -- I want those FWDs ) if were available, but have to get something in the meantime. Keep going back and forth between the i3 (which actually has a really fun drive and is, despite what some like to say, very cutting edge), but am on the Model S side of things right now. (Still have some time to decide.) Historically, before I was on the market for a car, I thought the i3 and Model S were different enough and far enough apart in cost that people weren't cross-shopping, but then when I was in the boat of needing a car (in the coming months), I realized it's a very hard decision choosing between the two. My "dilemma" articles are at the bottom of this post if you want a lot more details.

But, anyhow, I'm super curious how many people are in a similar boat. Wish there were data on this.

Btw, I know there are discussions elsewhere, but I'm curious to hear more about your issues with the NG seats.

Well, the hard part of the decision for us was not i3 vs. Model S (that part was easy, despite the size)... it was deciding whether spending the money now was a worthwhile thing to do vs. what the future trade-offs could be. That said, the i3 is a reasonably good first attempt from BMW. From a utilitarian standpoint, the i3 is an overpriced, tarted-up, less practical Leaf... but it is a lot more fun to drive, allows for one pedal driving, actually has a real thermal management system for the battery pack (our Leaf has been hosed by the heat out here--25% pack capacity loss in 20k miles), and has much more comfortable seats. On the negative side of things, it's the most hideous thing BMW has ever made, it felt twitchy/darty on the freeway which is strange for a BMW (even my M Roadster didn't do that), and those damn doors... ugh. I'll admit that there are quite a few situations where the suicide doors could be practical, the fact that we'd have to back the car completely out of the garage to open and use them kills it for me.

In case you can't tell, I have a love-hate relationship with BMW... mostly due to past experience.

As for the next-gen seats in the Model S, the side bolstering is too aggressive. My wife an I are fairly small people (I'm 5'9" and ~135lb., she's 5'1" and also quite light) and that, surprisingly, can present issues when car shopping. In her case, the side bolstering comes up so high that it shoves her shoulders forward in a really uncomfortable fashion--clearly designed for someone with a longer torso. The Owner Advisor we were working with didn't really understand until the wife sat in a P85D with the next-gen seats... the OA took one look at her position in the seat, cringed a bit, and said "Okay, yeah... these definitely aren't going to work." I'm usually okay with aggressively bolstered seats but it does occasionally conflict with my short legs in cars with manual transmissions (the RX-8 R3's Recaros comes to mind). The Model S is going to be my wife's daily driver for her very short drive to work and we'll be using it for occasional long trips, so she absolutely must be comfortable in the seats.

 

[chickensevil]

I was likely the one to which the OP is referring as I made the post in response to something else going on at the time. The OP is incorrect on the subject of the X cannibalizing the S... which was the one thing I was quite insistent on in my post (I don't even recall where or when I posted it... or I would post it here and save me the trouble of writing a response)

Basically, some of my feelings originate from what drove me to shop upmarket. I didn't even consider anything currently on the market (although in March 2014 I think only the Nissan Leaf was really an option then) because of Range. While I hardly need the 200+ mile range on the S in my day to day driving, I do need more than the 80 or so that you can reasonably expect on the smaller EVs. I drive an average of 55 miles just to and from work every day, with some days requiring some extra driving around at work, and no option of charging except at home. With seeing how you could get up to 50% loss in the winter on a LEAF, I just couldn't do it... and what happens when you get 70% loss over 5 years or whatever, then I *really* couldn't do it.

Combine that me commonly having driven north ~25 miles in to work, and then south ~60 miles to hang out with friends, and then back home north ~35 miles and you would see that unless I wanted to horribly inconvenience my normal driving habits I needed at least ~120 miles of range. If you live in the great DC metropolitan area, and you don't actually live and work in downtown DC, you can expect to put a LOT of miles on your car. It is a very spread out area, and is largely the contributor to me having driven over 36,000 miles in a little over a year and a half on the Tesla. only about ~6,000 of that has been in the category of "road-trips" which is when you would expect to need either more range or a quick recharge or both. I'm sure the statistics are right that most people don't drive more than 15 miles a day, or whatever... but if you live in the DC area, I would wager that number is skewed toward a higher metric. On just the VA side, Route 1 has some 33,000 commuters passing through any mile marker in a day between Woodbridge to DC, I95/I395 has some 60,000 commuters on the main lanes and another 30,000 vehicles on the HOV lanes. And that isn't counting I495/I66/I95(on the MD side)/I295/HWY295/US50/Dulles Toll Road/Etc. It is staggering how much people have to drive in this area.

Anyway, all this to say that while I can afford to move up market, I would not rather be driving a Large Sedan (I like smaller cars). I went with the Tesla because I was drawn to them from the Roadster days, and knew that the Model S was more practical. But if the Model 3 was around I would have totally bought that car instead, and fully intend to move back down market once the Model 3 is released.

So this is where I came from when I made comments in another thread to the extent that while the Model X is not going to hurt Model S sales (and in fact seems to have helped improve Model S sales), I am a little bit curious what the impact will be on the Model 3, because people like me will move back down market, or never be drawn to the Model S/X at all for one reason or another. What that impact will be is unclear... it may not be an impact at all, since Tesla will be much better known to the public by the release of the Model 3 that it will draw people into the brand more in general and we should see people shift from their 60k+ MB/BMW/Porsche/etc and into Tesla more than we already have. So I still agree that long term sales should hit at *least* as good as the MB S Class trends at globally, since it is at least as good as that car, only better because it is Electric!

 

[electracity]

The i3 is really a city car, and an oddball for north america. The long video posted in the i3 thread is interesting for those who have time to watch. The R&D budget for the i3 was huge, and the car is clearly a testbench for new types of carbon fiber production. The video also shows how Tesla just doesn't have the money to be highly innovative in many aspects of car building.

 

[chickensevil]

Btw, I know there are discussions elsewhere, but I'm curious to hear more about your issues with the NG seats.

Not to keep this OT going, but I had heard that larger people tend to not like the side bolsters on the NG seats as it juts into their back rather than wrap around them as they should. If you don't like Recaro seats (or racing type seats) then you won't like these. That being said it was something that had been called out a number of times by reviewers of the car as well as owners that because you can take turns well at decently high speeds (I think the car can handle something like 1G lateral movement with the right tires) that the seats don't grip you well enough and you slide around. In my current car I actually have to brace myself with my left foot by pushing hard to the floor while taking hard turns to help compensate against that. I am looking forward to my new car with the new seats for this very reason. Not everyone is going to like the same things for one reason or another, so hopefully they keep at least the black regular leather seats around to fill that gap as there are people who also refuse to own a luxury car with textile seats.

 

[adiggs]

My working hypothesis is that Model S/X demand, once Model 3 is released, will be competitive with the overall market for $100k cars. It's a small market and I expect it to subside back to pre Model s total unit volume levels. Of those purchasing in the $100k vehicle range, how much of that market will Tesla take? That's a question I really don't have much of an answer for.

I can imagine increasing numbers and ranges of EVs on the road increasing awareness, and leading to that high end market shifting towards electric, and that would be a good thing for Tesla. I can also imagine that overall high end vehicle sales convert to EV no faster than the larger market, and that will make Model S / X into more of a niche vehicle with relatively low volume (compared to volume now). I can create a bunch of reasonable sounding hypothesis - the reality is that I really don't know.


Model 3 reservations, when they become available, are going to be ridiculous. I am expecting a reservation rate at least 10x what Model X has seen, and I'm thinking even that will be low. I'm starting to think that taking reservations next Spring may prove to be too soon for Tesla (unless they're making better progress towards release than I expect) - I'm starting to think 1M reservations by the time the first car ships as a fast building reservation list leads to people reserving sooner than they really want to just so they only need to wait a year or 2 from initial release. Feeding frenzy (and I may be in on the action ).

 

[electracity]

Will Tesla cut the price on S/X to stimulate demand? When will Tesla hit the 200,000 car mark and the stepdown of U.S. tax credits?

It seems both Tesla and GM will hit the 200,000 EV mark early in the sale of 200 mile low cost EV.

 

[ZachShahan]

Well, the hard part of the decision for us was not i3 vs. Model S (that part was easy, despite the size)... it was deciding whether spending the money now was a worthwhile thing to do vs. what the future trade-offs could be. That said, the i3 is a reasonably good first attempt from BMW. From a utilitarian standpoint, the i3 is an overpriced, tarted-up, less practical Leaf... but it is a lot more fun to drive, allows for one pedal driving, actually has a real thermal management system for the battery pack (our Leaf has been hosed by the heat out here--25% pack capacity loss in 20k miles), and has much more comfortable seats. On the negative side of things, it's the most hideous thing BMW has ever made, it felt twitchy/darty on the freeway which is strange for a BMW (even my M Roadster didn't do that), and those damn doors... ugh. I'll admit that there are quite a few situations where the suicide doors could be practical, the fact that we'd have to back the car completely out of the garage to open and use them kills it for me.

In case you can't tell, I have a love-hate relationship with BMW... mostly due to past experience.

As for the next-gen seats in the Model S, the side bolstering is too aggressive. My wife an I are fairly small people (I'm 5'9" and ~135lb., she's 5'1" and also quite light) and that, surprisingly, can present issues when car shopping. In her case, the side bolstering comes up so high that it shoves her shoulders forward in a really uncomfortable fashion--clearly designed for someone with a longer torso. The Owner Advisor we were working with didn't really understand until the wife sat in a P85D with the next-gen seats... the OA took one look at her position in the seat, cringed a bit, and said "Okay, yeah... these definitely aren't going to work." I'm usually okay with aggressively bolstered seats but it does occasionally conflict with my short legs in cars with manual transmissions (the RX-8 R3's Recaros comes to mind). The Model S is going to be my wife's daily driver for her very short drive to work and we'll be using it for occasional long trips, so she absolutely must be comfortable in the seats.

Yes, completely understand. It comes down to values/preferences/needs. In my case, I love:

• the quick acceleration in such a light vehicle
• the small size
• the regen braking
• and actually the doors (my dad has a pickup with such doors and i've never been bothered by them, and with a 1-year-old, i like the idea of having them)

But, yes:

• not as smooth of a drive as the Model S at all
• i know the look doesn't appeal to a lot of people (even though i personally like it), and one aim is to inspire others to go electric
• "it felt twitchy/darty" nails one of my concerns.

All in all, the Model 3 or Y would likely be perfect for me, but have to get something to hold me over. So... much bigger than I like for several hundred more a month? Or not such a smooth drive without all the excellent tech features and style of the Model S? Hard decision. But back to the point of the thread: if it weren't for the 3/Y, I'd just look to buy a Model S, and since the 3/Y should be coming, I'm looking to lease a Model S and then dump that for a 3/Y. I think...

Thanks for the info on the seats. Just have to test them both carefully with my wife. I'm quite sensitive to seating as a tall-ish (6'1") and quite thin person. My lower back gets quite tired quickly in seats poorly designed for my body type. But now I'm definitely off topic...

- - - Updated - - -

My working hypothesis is that Model S/X demand, once Model 3 is released, will be competitive with the overall market for $100k cars. It's a small market and I expect it to subside back to pre Model s total unit volume levels. Of those purchasing in the $100k vehicle range, how much of that market will Tesla take? That's a question I really don't have much of an answer for.

I can imagine increasing numbers and ranges of EVs on the road increasing awareness, and leading to that high end market shifting towards electric, and that would be a good thing for Tesla. I can also imagine that overall high end vehicle sales convert to EV no faster than the larger market, and that will make Model S / X into more of a niche vehicle with relatively low volume (compared to volume now). I can create a bunch of reasonable sounding hypothesis - the reality is that I really don't know.


Model 3 reservations, when they become available, are going to be ridiculous. I am expecting a reservation rate at least 10x what Model X has seen, and I'm thinking even that will be low. I'm starting to think that taking reservations next Spring may prove to be too soon for Tesla (unless they're making better progress towards release than I expect) - I'm starting to think 1M reservations by the time the first car ships as a fast building reservation list leads to people reserving sooner than they really want to just so they only need to wait a year or 2 from initial release. Feeding frenzy (and I may be in on the action ).

Yes, so many different reasons we can hypothesize more or fewer sales of the S/X once 3/Y are out. Obviously, no one really knows. I think I'm just going to assume Elon has nailed it (again) with a broad estimate of ~100,000/year between the S & X.

As far as 3 reservations, yeah, that is going to be insane... ludicrous even. I'm not going to put out a guess at this point (need to see various types of data first! ) but definitely not ruling out 1 million. I mean just think about it when people are seeing the X (and S) around and news breaks of 300,000 Model 3 reservations. People are going to think, "What's the Model 3? Do I need a reservation?" and then start learning a bit.... We'll see. Easy to get optimistic and excited, but trying to contain that until we are closer to production.