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Does this makes financial sense

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Holy moly! You are quite the detail person.

Honestly this is way over thinking it. You have no clue whether your assumptions will hold up over 20 years.

Look at the per year cost for owning the car for 3-5 years and you can make an honest comparison.

You also can't account for in the "happiness" factor. Will you be substantially happier driving a Model S than an Audi A6? What's the worth to you?

If you can legitimately afford the Model S and feel that's what you want deep down, then go for it. If you're doing all this math because you are trying to justify a purchase you deep down know you cannot afford, then go with a cheaper car!
 
To add to that:

Things that won't hold up over time:
-Your estimation of gas costs (may go up or down significantly)
-Cost of electricity (may go up or down as well). You also could get solar one day to make this "free".
-Cost of replacing battery is a complete unknown
-Value of car in 20 years is totally random.
-If the current Tesla hardware doesn't ever get to full self driving, you may want a different car in 5 years that can. Or maybe you'll upgrade your Tesla to a new car with Lidar.

My point is, no way to make these comparisons over 20 years.
 
I agree with DrReid. I think there are some intangibles that you need to factor in. I personally like the idea of not burning fuel.
Some thoughts...
- besides super chargers lots of places offer free charging
- if you install solar on your home, you might even be in a situation where that line item is 0
- I'm not questioning your data, but my understanding is that brake service is fairly rare on a Tesla, so you might have inflated numbers
- HOV lanes are nice
- If you charge at night and don't use super chargers, you actually save time over having to visit gas stations (time == money)

That said, with your spread sheet, factoring in just the notion that the Tesla is so darn cool, I think it is a no brainer.

For the record, I just ordered my model S, haven't had it delivered yet. Previous car was a Lexus that I drove for 12 years. Overall maintenance costs for the Lexus were higher than my estimates.
 
20 years is a long time for any car. Tesla will be ancient by then considering how technology ages.

I don't necessarily agree on the pressumptions related to brake maintenance or battery replacement. Brakes - the car uses regenerative braking, so the wear and tear on the system is small. Battery replacement - if maintained properly your battery will last a long time. You will see some degradation, but unless you consider a worst case scenario in your calculations I would not worry about the complete replacement.

Otherwise, what @DrReid already said. There's no price on happiness factor :)
 
And why would you replace the battery in 200k miles? It would still get a high enough SOC to keep you happy.

Also, the total cost of ownership would be more. More stuff brakes as the car ages
 
Holy moly! You are quite the detail person.

Honestly this is way over thinking it. You have no clue whether your assumptions will hold up over 20 years.

Look at the per year cost for owning the car for 3-5 years and you can make an honest comparison.

You also can't account for in the "happiness" factor. Will you be substantially happier driving a Model S than an Audi A6? What's the worth to you?

If you can legitimately afford the Model S and feel that's what you want deep down, then go for it. If you're doing all this math because you are trying to justify a purchase you deep down know you cannot afford, then go with a cheaper car!

Its not about finances, I can buy it with all cash, but I just want to compare the long term cost savings of EV's like tesla against different ICE cars