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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Swampgator, Sep 5, 2018.
Tesla Model 3 Outsold All BMW Passenger Cars In US
Very cool, but also in this United States of the SUV it is not quite as dominating... I like how BWM has 'light trucks' now.. there's a bucketload plus of X5 around us.. really hate um...
Still pretty good. Looks like SUVs account for around 35-40% of BMW sales.
TSLA sold 23175 total cars in August. BMW sold 23,789 total.
Believe me, BMW is more than a little bit concerned.
These are US numbers only. BMW blows them out of the water worldwide..... Just saying, look at the whole story.
The US is the 2nd largest market so it's still a good sign. Tesla is working on China which is the largest market in the world. If they can dominate those two markets, it doesn't really matter how they are doing in the rest of the world.
I think China is kicking the US's butt market size, if not already soon soon soon
Tesla is only shipping Model 3 to US and Canada but primarily US. There is no world wide comparison at this point.
While I do acknowledge that we should probably be making this comparison down the line once pent up reservation demand has been cleared. Those would be the interesting numbers.
This is the kind of story the media should be reporting, about how good this American car company is doing outselling foreign carmakers in the U.S. Tesla deserves to be celebrated. Unfortunately people are too busy out fearmongering about stock prices.
It's true BMW is doing fine since they're selling in all markets. I don't think BMW will truly be concerned until Tesla brings Model 3 to Europe.
I am. Tesla is only selling the Model 3 in the US (with an occasional Canadian delivery) If they can ramp up production and sell in the other markets, they will capture similar percentages to the US market, except for Germany which will be lower.
BMW, MB, and VW/AUDI are all extremely concerned. That is why they are all launching new cars for 2019 and 2020 to try and protect their market share. But they are playing defense. TSLA is on offense and scoring points at a rapid clip. I would not want to be on the executive team for any of the German automakers. Toyota and Honda had better wake up as well or they will find themselves in a declining market share situation very soon. By the time BMW is producing their BEV SUV at scale (2020) Tesla will also be producing Model Y. These guys are in for a world of hurt lasting for several years, and ending with the dissolution of some of them. Who survives will be interesting to watch. I think Porsche gets it.
Clearly Model 3 sales will start to cool down in a year or two, so it makes it that much more urgent for Tesla to get the Model Y out the door if they want to keep this momentum going.
Ok so this chart is indeed impressive, holy Model 3.
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Maybe a little. BMW's US sales have actually increased YOY, so it's not like they are suffering:
BMW USA sales increased one percent in August 2018
There are also a number of special factors at play. For example, BMW's main competitor to the Model 3 (the 3 series) is in the last year of it's current generation, so it's expected that sales decline while people are waiting for the new generation. On the other hand, Tesla currently sees a demand boost since people want to get in before the federal tax credit starts to phase out in a few months.
It's really nice that Tesla is starting to sell some serious numbers, but until they are generating profits for several quarters in a row we're not out of the woods yet. Also, given the shift in the market from sedans to crossovers, the Model Y can't come soon enough ...
What is really worrisome for tesla is next year. What happens once the pent up demand is exhausted and the tax credit is phased out? They could have a very rough 2019 year. They are going to have to diversify away from the US as much as possible.
Don't think you need to worry about demand. People have casted doubt on demand before, remember back in July they said Tesla ran out of demand that's why all those cars were sitting on the lots? Then Tesla launches AWD & Performance models, Model 3 now the best selling plug-in car in the U.S. There is not a single Model 3 competitor out on the market right now.
In 2019 when tax cred starts to phase out, they'll be selling the $35k model, which if we think the demand is high right now, wait until the $35k model officially launches. The demand will be through the roof. In 2019 that's also when they'll reveal Model Y, and start taking reservations. Expect Model Y to have higher demand than Model 3 because 'murica, we love SUV/CUV's.
They most definitely should launch Model 3 in Europe, China, and Australia, but it would cost them a lot of money to do so right now. I think Q3/Q4 they're focused on proving they can generate positive GAAP revenue. As a public traded company they have to do this first.