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Drive train replacements (results/share_impact)?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Chickenlittle, Jul 20, 2014.

  1. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    Saw picture of slide tesla live and posts here and MF article now with 14.8% failure rate. Wondered where this came from and found a post that it is from voluntary survey of 256 cars. Not significant number in a voluntary survey age of cars not indicated, was a fix put in place on subsequent cars? Hope tesla will comment on this in official way, maybe on forum. Obviously they know the number. My own car 22000 miles no issue
     
  2. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    A "voluntary survey" will likely be heavily skewed towards those cars with problems. Only a truly random survey will give accurate numbers. That failure rate is almost certainly far higher than the true rate.
     
  3. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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    What is MF?
     
  4. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    I do not think that heading of this thread is accurate, as drivetrain replacement due to noise and "failure" are not one and the same. My drivetrain was replaced due to noise at around 7,500 miles, but it did not fail on me. I am at about 20,000 miles now, with no issues with the replaced drivetrain.

    Could moderators edit the title to "Drivetrain Replacements" ?
     
  5. In2oil

    In2oil Member

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    Since i have been reading about gearbox failure I have become paranoid driving my car hard. I am not saying driving it like a stole it , i am just concerned about accelerating quickly. Is it based on logic or should i simply drive it and enjoy!
     
  6. 32no

    32no Member

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    I haven't heard or read of any actual failures in the drivetrain, although I have read about a few that had to be replaced due to noise. There is a big difference between a complete failure of a drivetrain system and noise coming from it.
     
  7. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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    I think the concern is, even not complete failure, drivetrain replacement due to noise will increase the warranty cost and reduce the margin. Overall it's not a good image to replace drivetrain for whatever reason.

     
  8. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

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    The only reason the drivetrain seems loud is because the car is just so quiet! In an ICE car, the engine noise would block out the drivetrain noise. This is a very small problem as it is just a noise, not "failure" of any part of the car.
     
  9. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    Curt, pretty sure Chicken was referring to Katie Spence's Motley Fool article this morning.

    Spence drew largely from Logical Thought's Seeking Alpha article. Spence has a track record of strictly FUD Tesla "articles" very similar to Logical Thought, Paulo Santos, etc. I'm pretty sure the Motley Fool has some worthwhile content, but free articles like Katie's often are right at the Seeking Alpha level, and she appears to be making ample use of that Seeking Alpha-esque arm of the Motley Fool.

    Don't get me wrong, I think it's reasonable to raise the question of what is the cause of these drive unit replacements, how prevalent they are, what kind of handle Tesla has on correcting these and avoiding them in future production... it's just that the work of LT and KS asks leading FUD questions, and neither contacted Tesla with their questions.
     
  10. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    Well... the car DOES get less quiet over time; While my P85 was in for service I was loaned a 60. There was definitely a difference in DT noise at low speed ~10mph. However my wh/mi energy use in the P85 has not changed dramatically and neither has it's performance so I fairly certain that there isn't anything serious wrong.
     
  11. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

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    Do some drivetrains need replacement from time to time? Yes. This is nothing new. First drivetrain replacement mentioned on here was over a year ago. Does it seem like it's getting more attention and happening more often now? Yes. But of course it is. There are 40,000+ Model S on the road now vs. 4000 a year and a half ago.

    The question is: is the rate of drivetrain failures constant, declining, or rising relative to the total number of cars on the road? We don't have the actual numbers and trends on drivetrains failures from Tesla, but we have all of the warranty expenses reported each quarter. Given the drivetrain and battery are far and away the most expensive items to replace, that reporting is essentially a direct report on failures of those two components. So what does the data tell us?

    It's not a material issue. Warranty reserves keep going up and expenses down, quarter after quarter relative to the number of cars on the road. So this is a non-issue.

    What we're seeing here is this quarter's active FUD campaign by short sellers to induce panic in weak shareholders and drive down the stock prior to earnings. They're desperate and grasping at straws yet again. We are all pawns.
     
  12. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Agreed. I have yet to hear of one having a problem that affected the car's performance let alone leaving someone by the side of the road. I think TM replaces them to study/improve them as much as for being client friendly.
     
  13. wycolo

    wycolo Active Member

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    More specifically it is usually 'inverter noise' that is noticed, reported to Service, and drive unit is replaced. Reason reported so far seems to be 'if golden ears can hear it, then golden ears shall enjoy silence once again'.

    My car is now doing this @21k miles. Sounds like a distant neighbor using a table saw or router. Kinda neat. But I ask myself if the inverter is making sounds then some parts are actually vibrating. Do we want this happening in an inverter? If the circuit board is now loose enough to vibrate, is that not a bad thing??
    --
     
  14. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    Mötley fool
     
  15. nleggatt

    nleggatt Member

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    Did I read correct that this is covered by warranty an profit keeps going up despite warranty claims so this is a non issue....

    If that is the case I wonder how you would feel when your car stops working and you have it on and out of the shop for months on end and someone says "it's covered under warranty, and don't worry the company is till making a profit!"

    Also I'm more a fan boy then the next and trust me this is not FUD to drive the stock down. Your drinking the cool aide if you really believe that all bad press is simply with a motive against the stock.
     
  16. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

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    #16 EarlyAdopter, Jul 20, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2014
    I acknowledged that some people have experienced drive train failures, all cars of all makes and models do, and I'm sorry if you've been one of them. What I'm pointing out is the problem is not widespread or increasing otherwise we'd see it impacting warranty reserves. That's the best and only place for us to get some data on how big of a problem this is, or isn't. Obviously doesn't change the impact to individuals who have been affected. I assume Tesla took good care of you and got you set up with a loaner for when your car was out of commission?

    Also, it's important to understand that warranty reserves aren't recorded as profits. It is money held back from each car sale put in a pool to fund warranty repairs. Car manufacturers are required to antcipate likely warranty costs and probabilities across the fleet and hold back that amount from each sale. If they get it wrong then over time their reserves won't be enough to keep up with the mounting repair costs. In Tesla's case the opposite is occurring. So far, their cummulative warranty repair costs are coming in less than they are reserving, which indicates this isn't a widespread problem.
     
  17. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    I updated the title so that folks don't turn this into a technical discussion duplicating those which already exist. If there's an impact on results then the total number of replacements is the key number, not the number of failures.

    BTW, at TMC Connect the presenter (Tom Saxton) did note that the data may have been biased because folks having issues were potentially more likely to have responded to the survey in the first place.
     
  18. nleggatt

    nleggatt Member

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    Thanks for the clarification. My apologies if I came off defensive or abrubt.
     
  19. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Active Member

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    Wow, now we are reprinting MF and SA crap........... Sad, very sad.

    If everyone says it enough, it will become fact.

    For the record, my wife and I have had a total of four and I've put five friends in MS without a single DL replacement.
     
  20. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    Actually this one started with a picture of a slide from tmc connect posted on this site without explanation or mention of extremely small sample size. Had to search for that piece of info. I believe it was irresponsible of moderators to leave that one while they remove so many posts to snipiness. I feel like putting a slide on here of 100 %satisfaction without mention that it's based on a survey of one, myself
     

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