Driverless Hotel Room Disruption... My thoughts from 8 years ago.

[lafrisbee]

So there is "news" about Autonomous cars becoming disruptive in the hotel industry. I guess it is because of the cute name..."driverless hotel room." I've had this discussion with friends since...well i first heard about autonomous cars.


Because way back at the beginning of discussing autonomous driving I developed the scenario (and this was at least 8 years ago) that Autonomous vehicles will be a major "Disruption" in the Hotel AND travel industries. But also increase tourism as far as dining and spectator events...and even visiting grandma, national parks etc. This is something my imagination created on its own... it isn't all my thoughts but at least fleshes out the disruptive nature of autonomous vehicles... As a side bar before I even start: "Shower and Shugar" Stations will pop-up to serve as real BATHrooms to provide "proper facilities" for travellers. Sorta like are available to truckers at truck stops...

First my thoughts on airlines.
Two people living in My town, Palm Bay Florida, want to attend homecoming at My University, Auburn AL. This is one of the most Average of scenarios.
MONEYowning an ICE vehicle)
IF YOU FLY
Tickets $346 (2 tickets Orlando to Atlanta)
Car Parking $27
Car Rental $94 ( That is taking the deal with Routes, not a highly regarded business, next best was Alamo for $113).
gas $40 (total WAG)
Minimum TOTAL $530
TIME: For travel
1.5 hours to get to the off site parking
.5 hours to travel from off-site to airport
1.5 hours through screening and boarding (cutting it close)
.5 hours to get the rental car (we all know I am being very forgiving of some of these estimates.)
2.0 hours to get to the hotel in Auburn.
.5 hours to get checked in.
6.5 hours from door to hotel door.

Scenario II
Get in the car at midnight on Friday, after you shower, and go to sleep. Wake up to super charge 5 hrs later, and go back to sleep.
TIME (from google maps, at speed limits...mentioning this because setting Autonomous to over the speed limit will probably negate the time spent at the super charger)
"
7 h 48 min (491 miles)

via I-75 N.
.


MONEY ( Guessing high to make my point) Multiplied x2 for round trip.
$30 ($15 x2) Tolls
$80 ($40 x2)supercharger (and home charger)
$110 Total for Autonomous drive.


So when you subtract autonomous from conventional Airline transportation:
$530
-$110
$420 actual transportation savings

TIME
7.45 hrs
-6.5 hrs
0.95 hrs (x2 = 1.90 hrs)

SO BY TRAVELING AUTONOMOUSLY for 2 MORE HOURS YOU WOULD SAVE $420. An almost 80% reduction in cost.

Now like that wasn't enough...
The first thing you have to figure out is when are flights available. Very rarely do you get to dovetail the times in with your reason for flying. Often it is get there the night before and leave the day after. That is an additional 2 days of your life you do not get back, outside of just the traveling time. And it is an additional expense of at least 1 hotel night and eating out, So throw another $100 out the window IF you are staying at a Holiday Inn, and it is not Homecoming Week end (Like in my scenario), Otherwise peel a few more $20 bill off that bank roll.
So the convenience, time savings, and additional monetary expenses are much larger than just time and money spent in the basic dynamic of travelling.
There is also the whole negativity associated with security checks and boarding, and who you sit with on the plane...and if you get a whole can of cranberry juice to go with your peanuts. Eat it quick she's coming around for the trash.
Or you can fall asleep in your autonomous electric vehicle (You did get the upgrade for the "sleeper chair"? Me I'll have a cyber so a full-sized mattress will be my driver's seat...come to think of it I know we aren't there yet, but who is in the Tesla Meter High Club? It's going to be a big club once autonomous driving is for real.

When you get to your vacation or conference destination... First you can time your arrival to EXACTLY when you want to get there...no more having to decide based on flight offerings and costs. Second you can do the planning to arrive fresh and ready to start the fun, or work.
Now about how you feel when you get back home.
So many people need to take a day off before going back to work just so they feel back to normal... Autonomous driving in many cases will remove the need to recover from traveling through airport terminals.
(Another sidebar. This one is a new parameter and not one I gave much thought to 8 years ago. There will be less chance of catching a communicable disease. And also less chance of your plan being disrupted by an outside force like the current BS.)
Now as to vacationing. Tourism will become HUGE. Sure domestic airlines will see a vast reduction in ticket sales. And the Hotel industry will be impacted, but more people will be prone to take more vacations. And many of them will be further from home due to the elasticity of autonomous travel. Think about... here is one of my "Vacations."
Get in the car about midnight in Central Florida, go to Auburn for the day game against Georgia. Party. get my drink on with either the girl or my buddies that were also sleeping in the Cyber, No reason to not drink...I ain't driving. After the game hang out for a couple of hours. get back in the Cyber. Set it for Tuscaloosa so I can watch the Crimson Tide play Florida. Get a good nap on the way there. Party with The Tide till I am sleepy. Go back and sleep in the AC of the Cyber. Set it to drive me to Nashville so on Sunday I can watch the Titans play the Colts for the early game. Hop back in the cyber and set it for Hotlanta so I can catch the Sunday night football game with the Falcons... Close down Atlanta. Sleep in the cyber on the way to the Monday night Football game Carolina hosting NYG. Tailgate. And then set it to drive me and my buddies back to the house. Five games in five days. Sure it really would be a physical struggle, but not a logistical problem. And extremely inexpensive No Hotel rooms, and light on fuel costs. Practically the only additional expense would be the tickets. And I am great at working scalpers. I don't need to see the whole game. I am there for the spectacle.
Now imagine of I was a baseball fan in the Spring, when college and all the levels of the pros are active.... See, the autonomous vehicle is going to increase the amount of vacationing being done...heck I could even visit distant relatives and old college roommates for next to nothing.... See all the buildings and history that are not possible due to financial and driving constraints.
Besides driving and air travel the worst part of travelling is the hotel room itself, and the huge expense for little value other than a cool bed and a hot shower (if you are lucky). Autonomous driving reduces the driving fatigue by as much as you want to plan for it, and minimize the time wasted sleeping and driving by half. All while reducing the expenses by 80% (WAG).

 

[lafrisbee]

I forgot to add the cost of the hotel room
$584 for three nights at the Econo Lodge (cheapest). There is a 3 night minimum for home football game week ends. Sleeping in the deluxe accommodations of the Cyber Hotel with panoramic skylight and bio-hazard climate controls adjustable through your phone.
So instead of an 80% reduction for the football week end I've now got it down to greater than 90% less than if I flew in and rented a car and stayed in a hotel.
From $1000 to less than $100...except for food and beverage.

 

[lafrisbee]

Evidently this seems unbelievable to the point it hasn't gotten any response. It isn't. Autonomous driving will make the USA a different place. Travel will cost 1/10th of what it does today.
As an old fart I am even considering living in the CYBER in my retirement. It isn't a new idea even within my family. I had a Great Uncle Alvin back in the early '60's. We lived at Maxwell AFB in Montgomery AL. He came and visited once a year for my first three years of grade school. And he always traveled with one or two Great Aunts...though I can remember how amused my parents were when i asked how many great Aunts I had because the Great Aunts that were with Great Uncle Alvin changed each year?
He traveled in a Micro bus with a table in it. It was a big deal for me to go get all my neighborhood friends, and we'd get to sit at the table and eat crackers while we rode around the neighborhood.
Live in the in a big ol cool vehicle when you're old is My Heritage.

 

[kaffine]

In the short term I don't see FSD changing travel much. People will drive more for shorter trips but I don't see long distance changing much until you can rent FSD RVs.

It might allow for some to skip a hotel stay on trips but a car it isn't going to be comfortable for most to do multi-day trips.

Now FSD RVs I could see changing a lot about travel. I still see airlines being used for long distance travel especially business. More families will be able to travel distance during vacations. However you are likely looking at 3 days across the country add in the return and that is going to be half the vacation spent traveling. So it depends on if the trip is the vacation or is the destination the vacation. I tend to do more of the trip is the vacation not really the destination. It would be great for me to go and do an extended food tour where I try food in different places.

RVs would be comfortable enough for extended travel, wont need a hotel room at the destination. You can buy groceries and cook in the RV so not having to eat at restaurants all the time. However RVs are going to be more expensive to rent so cuts down some on the cost savings.

 

[lafrisbee]

In the short term I don't see FSD changing travel much. People will drive more for shorter trips but I don't see long distance changing much until you can rent FSD RVs.

It might allow for some to skip a hotel stay on trips but a car it isn't going to be comfortable for most to do multi-day trips.

Now FSD RVs I could see changing a lot about travel. I still see airlines being used for long distance travel especially business. More families will be able to travel distance during vacations. However you are likely looking at 3 days across the country add in the return and that is going to be half the vacation spent traveling. So it depends on if the trip is the vacation or is the destination the vacation. I tend to do more of the trip is the vacation not really the destination. It would be great for me to go and do an extended food tour where I try food in different places.

RVs would be comfortable enough for extended travel, wont need a hotel room at the destination. You can buy groceries and cook in the RV so not having to eat at restaurants all the time. However RVs are going to be more expensive to rent so cuts down some on the cost savings.

I can see where you are coming from...
BUT
A Cyber can easily be outfitted for a very comfortable night's rest. You can "mattress" the vault. And even before the drop down wall was suggested Elon commented there would be some sort of pass through between the Vault and the cab so the HVAC will maintain any temperature you need/desire without the threat of Carbon dioxide fumes. And you can watch netflix before retiring.
The only real hassle will be showering. And I mentioned how I imagine "Bathroom" Motels will be a new business. Just a fully fitted out bathroom for an hour at a set fee. Till then you could use Trucker Showers, or a day pass at a gym.
Sleeping in a Cyber will be cake. And as to food, most people eat out more often than not so it is a wash there.
People will seriously save 90% compared to travelling today.
I've entertained the idea of renting my home for a year to see if there is a strong enough negative to not enjoying being a Sojourner...
Sojourner (rover) - Wikipedia
Did I catch Elon's eye with the Mars reference?

 

[JBT66]

I love the idea and pretty similar to where I hope it will go. This is playing into the appreciating asset Elon talks about. How much is this thing going to cost me?

 

[strider]

Agree with your math. FSD will make intermediate trips with a car a no-brainer. Plus, as someone with aging parents, I am excited that they would be able to maintain their independence for far longer.

However, it will be at least 10 years before FSD is good enough to allow the driver to sleep. Getting the system to handle 90% of scenarios is relatively easy and it has taken WAY longer than Elon or most people thought. We are still not there, at least w/ my AP2.5 car. Getting that last 10% will be incredibly difficult. Turns out, replacing the human brain is not as easy as we thought.

 

[lafrisbee]

Agree with your math. FSD will make intermediate trips with a car a no-brainer. Plus, as someone with aging parents, I am excited that they would be able to maintain their independence for far longer.

However, it will be at least 10 years before FSD is good enough to allow the driver to sleep. Getting the system to handle 90% of scenarios is relatively easy and it has taken WAY longer than Elon or most people thought. We are still not there, at least w/ my AP2.5 car. Getting that last 10% will be incredibly difficult. Turns out, replacing the human brain is not as easy as we thought.

I have considered the possibility of FSD not being "complete" within a couple of years. And I have come to "the most likely" scenario of FSD being able to handle 100% of the driving on the interstate and some highways. And that'd make everything I stated possible but being drunk while having to get the vehicle on the interstate.

And then again I never believed that the software would be as capable as it currently is...and still improving rapidly. So we will see.

 

[JBT66]

While I agree, human drivers get in accidents all the time. We are all expecting 100% perfection. So it’s not a fair comparison. I also think people want it to be someones/somethings fault when an accident does happen. In this case if the machine gets in an accident we all want to blame Tesla, rightly or wrongly.

Agree with your math. FSD will make intermediate trips with a car a no-brainer. Plus, as someone with aging parents, I am excited that they would be able to maintain their independence for far longer.

However, it will be at least 10 years before FSD is good enough to allow the driver to sleep. Getting the system to handle 90% of scenarios is relatively easy and it has taken WAY longer than Elon or most people thought. We are still not there, at least w/ my AP2.5 car. Getting that last 10% will be incredibly difficult. Turns out, replacing the human brain is not as easy as we thought.

 

[strider]

While I agree, human drivers get in accidents all the time. We are all expecting 100% perfection. So it’s not a fair comparison. I also think people want it to be someones/somethings fault when an accident does happen. In this case if the machine gets in an accident we all want to blame Tesla, rightly or wrongly.

Fair point. 100% is unrealistic. I don't know what the accident/mile stats are for something like buses, trains, or airplanes, but it would need to be at least that safe.

As it is, if I hadn't immediately taken control when AP screwed up, I would have been in 10's of accidents in the last 18 months of having an AP car. And I'm a rare user of AP as it sucks so badly. My wife won't allow it to be used when she's in the car as it makes her nauseous.

As for liability, if a bus, airplane, or train crashes, the liability rests with the driver/carrier. They carry insurance for this purpose. Why would that be different here? That is why it will be such a long time before we go from AP to FSD. With FSD, you are no longer the driver, Tesla is the driver.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Evidently this seems unbelievable to the point it hasn't gotten any response. It isn't. Autonomous driving will make the USA a different place. Travel will cost 1/10th of what it does today.
As an old fart I am even considering living in the CYBER in my retirement. It isn't a new idea even within my family. I had a Great Uncle Alvin back in the early '60's. We lived at Maxwell AFB in Montgomery AL. He came and visited once a year for my first three years of grade school. And he always traveled with one or two Great Aunts...though I can remember how amused my parents were when i asked how many great Aunts I had because the Great Aunts that were with Great Uncle Alvin changed each year?
He traveled in a Micro bus with a table in it. It was a big deal for me to go get all my neighborhood friends, and we'd get to sit at the table and eat crackers while we rode around the neighborhood.
Live in the in a big ol cool vehicle when you're old is My Heritage.

Lol, great story! My father used to spend the Winters in Costa Rico after he retired, until the Contra's ruined the fun in the RayGun '80s...

I think a rolled-up spool of soft solar panel sheets would work well to charge Cybertruck while stopped at an RV park, or overlanding in the backcountry of the SouthWest.

Imagine a system like this, but rolling sheets of flexible solar panels instead of sod...

Of course, you'd lever it into and out of storage in the CT truck bed with electric arm lifts, then roll up or roll out the solar panels. 50 sq meters of flexible panels could provide ~10 KW of AC power to the onboard charger. So that a spool about 2 m (6 foot) wide by 25 m (82 foot) long.

I don't know the bulk involved, but the weight should be no problem for CT.

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

Lol, great story! My father used to spend the Winters in Costa Rico after he retired, until the Contra's ruined the fun in the RayGun '80s...

I think a rolled-up spool of soft solar panel sheets would work well to charge Cybertruck while stopped at an RV park, or overlanding in the backcountry of the SouthWest.

Imagine a system like this, but rolling sheets of flexible solar panels instead of sod...

Of course, you'd lever it into and out of storage in the CT truck bed with electric arm lifts, then roll up or roll out the solar panels. 50 sq meters of flexible panels could provide ~10 KW of AC power to the onboard charger. So that a spool about 2 m (6 foot) wide by 25 m (82 foot) long.

I don't know the bulk involved, but the weight should be no problem for CT.

Cheers!

I've developed a scenario in an unfinished script where the good guys can move through the desert on fat-tired ebikes(quiet no conventional tire tracks) at night, while sleeping under a parachute material that camo's in with the rockscape and absorbs enough energy to power the bike. (Their main job? Recon and booby traps.) Although the material doesn't capture a high percentage of energy it more than makes up for it in surface area and light weight. So a tent and awning made of something that can grab solar energy?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I've developed a scenario in an unfinished script where the good guys can move through the desert on fat-tired ebikes(quiet no conventional tire tracks) at night, while sleeping under a parachute material that camo's in with the rockscape and absorbs enough energy to power the bike. (Their main job? Recon and booby traps.) Although the material doesn't capture a high percentage of energy it more than makes up for it in surface area and light weight. So a tent and awning made of something that can grab solar energy?

Lol, pretty sure the Marines have been doing just that in the 'ghan... plus Sat-fones

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

In the short term I don't see FSD changing travel much. People will drive more for shorter trips but I don't see long distance changing much until you can rent FSD RVs.

It might allow for some to skip a hotel stay on trips but a car it isn't going to be comfortable for most to do multi-day trips.

Now FSD RVs I could see changing a lot about travel. I still see airlines being used for long distance travel especially business. More families will be able to travel distance during vacations. However you are likely looking at 3 days across the country add in the return and that is going to be half the vacation spent traveling. So it depends on if the trip is the vacation or is the destination the vacation. I tend to do more of the trip is the vacation not really the destination. It would be great for me to go and do an extended food tour where I try food in different places.

RVs would be comfortable enough for extended travel, wont need a hotel room at the destination. You can buy groceries and cook in the RV so not having to eat at restaurants all the time. However RVs are going to be more expensive to rent so cuts down some on the cost savings.

It is slow right now, so let me hop in your RV scenario. I completely agree with the upside FSD will have on RVs. Virtually any RV made without FSD will be considered worthless. And the reason being is part of my reply to your belief that "half your time is spent traveling" as being a negative...
"Half your time spent travelling" probably refers to the total hours in a day you are not asleep. 16 hours? So we agree 8 hours is what you spend travelling while on a road trip...
Um? You spend another 8 hours sleeping. Sooooooooooo? With FSD you arrange your trip so your travelling hours happen when you are asleep. And then you have your "Whole day" back to do things besides sitting behind a wheel.
And as to how you feel? The cars will feature many "hotel room features." All of them except for the already mentioned "Sh!t, Shower, and Shave Hotels," where you rent a bathroom by the half hour.
I do not travel well. And it is more about the uneasiness of a strange motel (granted I stay at budget hotels 90% of the time). I do sleep in a tent like it's a cocoon, and I can sleep in a van with a mattress rolling down the highway like I was born in the backseat of a Greyhound bus...
I see travelling around the USA in a Tesla Cyber Utility Vehicle as non-stressful, and I could do it on a permanent basis...just as long as I can have a dog with me. I think I can create a unique angle that would be blog-following worthy. I'll keep that to myself for now...

 

[lafrisbee]

I want to reiterate...
I can sleep in a tent I did so for 9 months straight at Auburn. During that time I had my highest Annual GPA (Not that great, somewhere in the mid 3.'s. But sleeping in the tent was nice and comfortable once I became accustomed to it.) The reason I didn't sleep in it any longer was the heat of Summer. A BEV that I can run the AC all night removes the only advantage to sleeping in a hotel room.

 

[kaffine]

It is slow right now, so let me hop in your RV scenario. I completely agree with the upside FSD will have on RVs. Virtually any RV made without FSD will be considered worthless. And the reason being is part of my reply to your belief that "half your time is spent traveling" as being a negative...
"Half your time spent travelling" probably refers to the total hours in a day you are not asleep. 16 hours? So we agree 8 hours is what you spend travelling while on a road trip...
Um? You spend another 8 hours sleeping. Sooooooooooo? With FSD you arrange your trip so your travelling hours happen when you are asleep. And then you have your "Whole day" back to do things besides sitting behind a wheel.
And as to how you feel? The cars will feature many "hotel room features." All of them except for the already mentioned "Sh!t, Shower, and Shave Hotels," where you rent a bathroom by the half hour.
I do not travel well. And it is more about the uneasiness of a strange motel (granted I stay at budget hotels 90% of the time). I do sleep in a tent like it's a cocoon, and I can sleep in a van with a mattress rolling down the highway like I was born in the backseat of a Greyhound bus...
I see travelling around the USA in a Tesla Cyber Utility Vehicle as non-stressful, and I could do it on a permanent basis...just as long as I can have a dog with me. I think I can create a unique angle that would be blog-following worthy. I'll keep that to myself for now...

The reason I don't see FSD cars having much disruption is I normally don't make it through the night without having to use the bathroom. So sleeping in a car while it drives is going to be a bit inconvenient to go to the bathroom and get back to sleep. With an RV I have a bathroom I can use without having to find a rest stop and pull over.

The half the time spent traveling is depending on the type of vacation you are taking. If you are going to visit family for instance the time spent to get there and back is time not spent with family. Being awake or sleeping during the travel doesn't matter. If on the other hand traveling is the vacation and you spend the day sight seeing or trying new restaurants and can have your car drive you to the next city while you sleep it would be great.

My last vacation was more of a destination vacation although I should have cut one of the destinations so I would have had more time to sight see on the way instead. I don't know how I went though Buffalo, NY twice without getting any wings. I almost made that mistake when going to see a SpaceX launch in California. Thankfully when I was looking for hotels I realized how close it was to Santa Maria and was able to get some great tri-tip while I was there.

 

[lafrisbee]

The reason I don't see FSD cars having much disruption is I normally don't make it through the night without having to use the bathroom. So sleeping in a car while it drives is going to be a bit inconvenient to go to the bathroom and get back to sleep. With an RV I have a bathroom I can use without having to find a rest stop and pull over.

The half the time spent traveling is depending on the type of vacation you are taking. If you are going to visit family for instance the time spent to get there and back is time not spent with family. Being awake or sleeping during the travel doesn't matter. If on the other hand traveling is the vacation and you spend the day sight seeing or trying new restaurants and can have your car drive you to the next city while you sleep it would be great.

My last vacation was more of a destination vacation although I should have cut one of the destinations so I would have had more time to sight see on the way instead. I don't know how I went though Buffalo, NY twice without getting any wings. I almost made that mistake when going to see a SpaceX launch in California. Thankfully when I was looking for hotels I realized how close it was to Santa Maria and was able to get some great tri-tip while I was there.

You use the bathroom in an RV while it is on the road.
I AM NEVER GOING IN AN RV WITH YOU ANYWHERE> period.

 

[kaffine]

You use the bathroom in an RV while it is on the road.
I AM NEVER GOING IN AN RV WITH YOU ANYWHERE> period.

People use the bathroom in a bus as it drives down the road and toilets in airplanes while they are in flight. I would likely opt to sit vs stand though.

 

[lafrisbee]

People use the bathroom in a bus as it drives down the road and toilets in airplanes while they are in flight. I would likely opt to sit vs stand though.

"People" drink their own pee.