Dry powder / milestones

[Cal1]

Why no share price predictions? Seems really crazy to predict market cap and not something about the effects of all this on our share pricing. To say some of members will become millionaires but not address share appreciations seems ... weak.

 

[Buckminster]

Cal1 - you are talking to the converted!!

Firstly, the market cap stuff wasn't my wording - picked it up from another forum member I think.
Secondly (my predictions): Super Bulls Only
Thirdly (my request for validation): SP Poll March to May 2019

Having said all that - I will try and take up the challenge (perhaps in the Superbull thread). SP rises based on this kind of stuff could make me look silly very quickly (right up my street...).

 

[Buckminster]

Removed:
None

Added:
Share price guesstimates - don't shoot me - just tell me I'm wrong and this is what it should be....
B+1 means the Bull prediction going up $1
SB+2 means the Superbull prediction going up $2
I then wrap up at the top of the section. The timelines are perhaps more in-line with superbull.
First section or 2 to start.
Finishing B$415, SB$475 end Feb I think is in-line with the poll I took recently.

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+5, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+5, SB+1

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media B+0, SB+2
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+6

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement?
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March?
  
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range
• HW3 in production

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• SRM3 US media reviews
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews
• Pravduh.com launches?
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier)

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• Production and deliveries of more than 450k vehicles in 2019
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer?
• Astronaut delivery to ISS

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k?
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
• Semi production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also)
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020)
  
• Tesla communications improve
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares

2020

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary.
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019)
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
• Side project - Mecha unveiled?
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled?
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?

2021

• Model Y production ramp
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?)

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[Buckminster]

Removed:
None

Added:
SP to 19 Q3.

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+5, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+5, SB+1

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media B+0, SB+2
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+6

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also) B+5, SB+10
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+0, SB+1

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020)
  
• Tesla communications improve
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares

2020

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary.
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019)
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
• Side project - Mecha unveiled?
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled?
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?

2021

• Model Y production ramp
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?)

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Removed:
None

Added:
SP to 19 Q3.

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+5, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+5, SB+1

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media B+0, SB+2
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+6

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also) B+5, SB+10
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+0, SB+1

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020)
  
• Tesla communications improve
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares

2020

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary.
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019)
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
• Side project - Mecha unveiled?
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled?
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?

2021

• Model Y production ramp
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?)

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

Dude! This is some serious effort on your part
It’ll take me some time to understand all this but looks like really great stuff

 

[Buckminster]

Removed
None

Added:
Boring opening
Earnings - 19 Q4 onwards
SP to 2021 end.

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+5, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+5, SB+1

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media B+0, SB+2
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+6

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also) B+5, SB+10
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+0, SB+1

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[Omelek]

Buck, I appreciate the list you're compiling. As I was reviewing this, I thought it would be interesting to see the price projections overlaid with actual price. I'll think through it a bit more, but if I can throw something together quickly I'll try and contribute to the wonderful list you've got.

 

[Buckminster]

Removed
Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media B+0, SB+2 - what a bunch of jokers...

Added:
Various in bold
SP estimates to end 2024. SP super bull forecast in-line with ARK.

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+5, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+5, SB+1

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+8

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also) B+5, SB+10
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+0, SB+1

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50
  

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[STARR X]

I have been kinda following this. What does these mean - B+200, SB+200 or should I should say B+ and SB+. And if you include ARK’s estimates, should you not include Ron Baron’s?

 

[EVMeister]

That is how many dollars is added to the SP by those specific events for the B and SB case.

 

[oneday]

B = Bull case
SB = Super Bull case

I really appreciate your timeline @Buckminster nice work!

 

[Buckminster]

Removed
None

Added:
Various in bold

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+10, SB+16

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Dec)
• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+8

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0
  
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
  • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
  
  • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+5, SB+11

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 2019)
• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
  • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
  • Agricultural Tractor?
  • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
  • Container ship?

• • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
• Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
• Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

2029

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030

 

[avoigt]

Removed
None

Added:
Various in bold

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+10, SB+16

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Dec)
• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+8

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0
  
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
  • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
  • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+5, SB+11

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 2019)
• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
  • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
  • Agricultural Tractor?
  • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
  • Container ship?

• • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
• Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
• Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

2029

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030

Thanks that's an impressive list of events and appreciate that you tried to, in an almost systematic way, outline what many of us do on paper or imagine but never publish.

Regardless if one believes in your predictions or not at least reading half way through everybody will acknowledge how many positive incidents that influence MC and SP are ahead of us. Those will happen, some with delay some maybe not at all but replaced by others.

The SP additions you listed are hard to quantify but its fair to take the targets from Ron or Ark Invest and work your way backwards trying to mark the path to them.

At the end of the day this are of course all just guesses but I like that you just bring it out here although many people will claim this not having any merit. My view is that if you make the math based on output, costs, margin and financial results over the course of the years and add the potential risk factors that can happen to Tesla you end up with a similar scenario. Having said that it does not really matter to what extend stock price predictions are accurate as the growth potential is what counts and the stock price will of course not just gain over time but having quite some volatility with over and undervaluation phases.

At the end of the day what we are all interested in is to figure out if our investment will pay back and we likely all agree that if only half of the predictions come true and we are able to stay in or add stocks that many of the people here chatting will be very wealthy people in the years to come.

 

[Buckminster]

Removed
None

Added:
Various in bold

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+10, SB+16

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Dec)
• Q4 #vehicles built (Troy forecast 85k) and delivered (Troy forecast 88k) announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+8

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0
  
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
  • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
  • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+5, SB+11

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
• Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
• Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
• Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 2019)
• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
  • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
• Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
  • Agricultural Tractor?
  • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
  • Container ship?
  • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?

• Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
• Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

2029

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030

 

[Buckminster]

Removed:
None

Added:
In bold

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+10, SB+16

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Dec)
• Q4 #vehicles built (Troy forecast 85k) and delivered (Troy forecast 88k) announcement - around 100k for both B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+8

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+2, SB-1

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0
  
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
  • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
  • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+5, SB+11

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
• Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
• Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
• Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 2019)
• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
  
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
  • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
• Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
  • Agricultural Tractor?
  • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
  • Container ship?
  • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?

• Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
• Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2026

2027

2028

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

2029

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030

 

[Buckminster]

Small tidy up before extensive changes post month end.

Removed:
None

Added:
In bold

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+10, SB+16

Jan 19 Starting B$380, SB$400; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
• Q4 #vehicles built B+5, SB+10
  • Troy's forecast - Production 60,359 M3 24,909 S+X Total 85,268 Deliveries 60,596 M3 27,665 S+X Total 88,261
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
• Other positives B+0, SB+8

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+3, SB+3

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+2, SB+4

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
• I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
  
  • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5 (moved from March)
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0
  
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
  • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
  • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+5, SB+11

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
• Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
• Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
• Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 2019)
• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
  
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
  • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
• Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
  • Agricultural Tractor?
  • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
  • Container ship?
  • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?

• Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
• Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2026

2027

2028

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

2029

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030

 

[Lucky_Man]

Small tidy up before extensive changes post month end.

Removed:
None

Added:
In bold

Nov/Dec 18 Starting $360; Finishing B$380, SB$400

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• RTL podcast B-5, SB+5
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Other positives B+10, SB+16

[EDIT: Removed for brevity]

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030

Really interesting projections! Curious about your expectations re stock splits, and where they might fit into your schemes. Happy New Year!

 

[Buckminster]

Really interesting projections! Curious about your expectations re stock splits, and where they might fit into your schemes. Happy New Year!

Thanks - Happy New Year to you.
I put in a stock split for 2020:

• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0

It would most likely be positive but I didn't want to change the numbers all around for it. They are out of favour these days but I would be surprised if Elon doesn't help newbies get on the ladder. Berkeley Hathaway A class currently at $306k each - something to aspire to..

 

[Buckminster]

Changes post month end.

Removed:

• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December) B+2 SB+5 (complete)
• Appointment of two new independent directors B+0, SB+5 (complete)
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed, plus tunnel, plus elevator plus autonomous modded Tesla B+0, SB+2 (complete)
• Other positives B+10, SB+16

Added:
In bold

Jan 19 Starting $333; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5 (Moved from Dec)
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5 (Moved from Dec)
• RTL podcast B+0, SB+5 (Moved from Dec)
  
• ATH B+3, SB+5 (Moved from Dec)
• Q4 #vehicles built B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• Other positives B+34, SB+47

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2 (moved from Jan)
  
• Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10 (FC expects ~7 Feb)
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. (Friday in 2018 and Saturday in 2019) B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+3, SB+1

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+2, SB+4

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
• I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
  • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5 (moved from March)
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0
  
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
  • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
  • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+5, SB+11

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
• Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
• Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
• Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 2019)
• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
  
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
  • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
• Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
  • Agricultural Tractor?
  • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
  • Container ship?
  • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?

• Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
• Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2026

2027

2028

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

2029

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030

 

[Buckminster]

Removed
None

Added:
In bold including from ReflexFunds

Jan 19 Starting $333; Finishing B$385, SB$440

• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
• RTL podcast B+0, SB+5
  
• ATH B+3, SB+5
• Q4 #vehicles built B+5, SB+10
• Break $420 B+0, SB+10
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2 (Complete)
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
• China GF developments B+0, SB+5 (moved from Feb - complete)
  
• Other positives B+34, SB+42

Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
  
• Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10 (FC expects ~7 Feb)
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
  • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
• 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. (Friday in 2018 and Saturday in 2019) B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+3, SB+6

Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
  
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
• HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
• Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
• Other positives B+2, SB+4

Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
• April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0
• Mar/April-19 - Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
• Mar-19 - Panasonic 35Gwh/year run rate at GF1
• Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei)
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
• SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
• Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
• Other positives B+0, SB+2

May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640

• Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
• Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
• Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0

• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50

• Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)

• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5

• Other positives B+0, SB+0

Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660

• Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
• MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
• Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
• Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
• I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
  • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5 (moved from March)
• Other positives B+5, SB+3

Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765

• Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
• Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0
  
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
  • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
• Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5
• Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
• MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
  
• Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
  
• Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
• UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
  • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR
• Other positives B+5, SB+11

Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915

• FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
• Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020) B+0, SB+5
  
• M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
• Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
• Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
• Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
• Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
• Other positives B+0, SB+15

2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650

• Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 2019)
• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
• Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
  
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
  • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?B+0, SB+10
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
• GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
• Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
• TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
• Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
  
• Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
• Other positives B-5, SB+20

2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450

• Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
• 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
• Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
  • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+40, SB+40

2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
• Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+50

2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950

• Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
  • Agricultural Tractor?
  • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
  • Container ship?
  • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?

• Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
• Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500

• Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
• Other positives B+200, SB+200

2025

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2026

2027

2028

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

2029

2030

• Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030