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Dry powder / milestones

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Buckminster, Nov 10, 2018.

  1. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Some slightly less bullish movements to the right on FSD and Semi.

    Removed
    None

    Added:
    In bold.

    Jan 19 Starting $333; Finishing B$385, SB$440
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
    • 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
    • Huge number of LEAPS close 18th Jan
    • RTL podcast B+0, SB+5
    • ATH B+3, SB+5
    • Q4 #vehicles built B+5, SB+10 (complete)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10
    • Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2 (Complete)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
    • China GF developments B+0, SB+5 (moved from Feb - complete)
    • Other positives B+34, SB+42
    Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475
    • 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
    • Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
    • Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10 (FC expects ~7 Feb)
      • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
      • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
      • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
      • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
      • 2nd profitable quarter
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
    • Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
    • Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. (Friday in 2018 and Saturday in 2019) B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+3, SB+6
    Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
    • Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
    • Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
      • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+2, SB+4
    Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0
    • Mar/April-19 - Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • Mar-19 - Panasonic 35Gwh/year run rate at GF1
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei)
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+2
    May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640
    • Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660
    • <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5 (moved from March)
    • Other positives B+5, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
    • Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+10, SB+1
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
      • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
    • Other positives B+10, SB+65
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets a major interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  2. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    None

    Added:
    In bold.

    Jan 19 Starting $333; Finishing B$385, SB$440
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
    • 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
    • Huge number of LEAPS close 18th Jan
    • RTL podcast B+0, SB+5
    • ATH B+3, SB+5
    • Q4 #vehicles built B+5, SB+10 (complete)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10
    • Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2 (Complete)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
    • China GF developments B+0, SB+5 (moved from Feb - complete)
    • Other positives B+34, SB+42
    Feb 19 Starting B$385, SB$440; Finishing B$415, SB$475
    • 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
    • Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
    • Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10 (FC expects ~7 Feb)
      • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
      • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
      • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
      • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
      • 2nd profitable quarter
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      • Major Summon update expected early Feb
    • Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
    • Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. (Friday in 2018 and Saturday in 2019) B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+3, SB+6
    Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
    • Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
    • Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
      • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
      • S/X refresh unveiled (2170?, interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+2, SB+4
    Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0
    • Mar/April-19 - Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • Mar-19 - Panasonic 35Gwh/year run rate at GF1
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s??
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+2
    May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640
    • Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation '& decision B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660
    • <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0 (squeeze could come here?)
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+5, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+10, SB+1
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June 19 - MR could stay permanently)
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
      • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets a major interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  3. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    • 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5 (Complete)
    • Huge number of LEAPS close 18th Jan
    • Q4 #vehicles built B+5, SB+10 (complete)
    • Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2 (Complete)
    • China GF developments B+0, SB+5 (moved from Feb - complete
    • Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10 (FC expects ~7 Feb) - Complete
      • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
      • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
      • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
      • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
      • 2nd profitable quarter
    Added:
    In bold.

    Feb 19 Starting $307; Finishing B$415, SB$475
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5 (moved from Jan)
    • RTL podcast B+0, SB+5 (moved from Jan)
    • ATH B+3, SB+5 (moved from Jan)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Jan)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Jan)
    • Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
    • Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      • Major Summon update expected early Feb
    • Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
    • Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. (Friday in 2018 and Saturday in 2019) B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+3, SB+6
    Mar 19 Starting B$415, SB$475; Finishing B$440, SB$525
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Jan)
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5

    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
    • Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
    • Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
      • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
      • S/X refresh unveiled (2170?, interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+2, SB+6
    Apr 19 B$440, SB$525; Finishing B$445, SB$545
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0
    • Mar/April-19 - Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • Mar-19 - Panasonic 35Gwh/year run rate at GF1
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s??
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+4
    May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640
    • Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation '& decision B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660
    • <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0 (squeeze could come here?)
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+5, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0 (moved from 2020)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Apr)
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+10, SB+1
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June 19 - MR could stay permanently)
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
      • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets a major interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  4. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    • Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
    • Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
    • Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
    • Mar-19 - Panasonic 35Gwh/year run rate at GF1
    Added:
    None

    Feb 19 Starting $307; Finishing B$315, SB$342
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Jan)
    • RTL podcast B+0, SB+5 (moved from Jan)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Jan)
    • Meme review B+0, SB+0
    • Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      • Major Summon update expected early Feb
      • Sentry mode, Dog mode
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. (Friday in 2018 and Saturday in 2019) B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+3, SB+10
    Mar 19 Starting B$315, SB$342; Finishing B$347, SB$393
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Jan)
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
    • Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
      • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
      • S/X refresh unveiled (2170?, interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
    • Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Feb)
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+2, SB+6
    Apr 19 B$347, SB$393; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+4
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$520, SB$640
    • Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • ATH B+0, SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation & decision B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+27, SB+132
    Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • <$100/kWh battery module confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0 (now Aug?)
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+5, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0 (moved from 2020)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+15, SB+6
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June 19 - MR could stay permanently)
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
      • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets a major interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
    • Love x 1
  5. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates? B+0, SB+10 - small mod to auto now

    Added:
    In bold

    Feb 19 Starting $307; Finishing B$315, SB$342
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Jan)
    • RTL podcast B+0, SB+5 (moved from Jan)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Jan)
    • Meme review B+0, SB+0
    • Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      • Major Summon update expected early Feb
    • Sentry mode, Dog mode (Complete)
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+3, SB+10
    Mar 19 Starting B$315, SB$342; Finishing B$347, SB$393
    • Crew Dragon test scheduled for 2nd March B+0, SB+0
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Jan)
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
    • Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
      • GF1 100% confirmed for manufacture
      • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
    • Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Feb)
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+2, SB+6
    Apr 19 B$347, SB$393; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+4
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$520, SB$640
    • Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • ATH B+0, SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation & decision B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+27, SB+132
    Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • <$100/kWh battery module confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0 (now Aug?)
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+5, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0 (moved from 2020)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+15, SB+6
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June 19 - MR could stay permanently)
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
    • Love x 1
  6. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0 - removed from website already....

    Added:
    In bold

    Feb 19 Starting $307; Finishing B$315, SB$342
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Jan)
    • RTL podcast B+0, SB+5 (moved from Jan)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Jan)
    • Meme review B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      • Major Summon update expected early Feb
    • Sentry mode, Dog mode (Complete)
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • Other positives B+3, SB+10
    Mar 19 Starting B$315, SB$342; Finishing B$347, SB$393
    • Crew Dragon test scheduled for 2nd March B+0, SB+0
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Jan - could now be June)
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
    • Feb SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0
    • Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
      • GF1 100% confirmed for manufacture
      • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
    • Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Feb)
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+2, SB+6
    Apr 19 B$347, SB$393; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+4
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$520, SB$640
    • Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • ATH B+0, SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation & decision B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+27, SB+132
    Jun 19 B$520, SB$640; Finishing B$525, SB$660
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • <$100/kWh battery module confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0 (now Aug?)
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+5, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$525, SB$660; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0 (moved from 2020)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+15, SB+6
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June 19 - MR could stay permanently)
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19) (Ark interview confirmed by end 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  7. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    • Meme review B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0 (complete)
    • Sentry mode, Dog mode (Complete)
    • 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • RTL podcast B+0, SB+5 (moved from Jan)
    • Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? B+5, SB+5 (complete)

    Added:
    In bold

    Mar 19 Starting B$294; Finishing B$324, SB$359
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from feb)
    • Crew Dragon test scheduled for 2nd March B+0, SB+0 (complete)
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Jan - could now be June)
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
    • Feb SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0
    • Model Y unveil (March 14, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
      • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5 (complete)
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Apr 19 B$324, SB$359; Finishing B$329, SB$380
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Q2 earnings and call B+0, SB+0
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row - now unlikely
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • <$100/kWh battery module confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0 (now Aug?)
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0 (moved from 2020)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • ATH B+0, SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation & decision B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June 19 - MR could stay permanently)
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19) (Ark interview confirmed by end 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
    • Informative x 1
  8. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    • Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • <$100/kWh battery module confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
    • M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+0 (moved from Mar)
    • MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June 19 - MR could stay permanently)

    Added:
    In bold

    Mar 19 Starting B$294; Finishing B$324, SB$359
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from feb)
    • Crew Dragon test scheduled for 2nd March B+0, SB+0 (complete)
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from Jan - could now be June)
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5 (Complete)
    • Feb SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0
    • Model Y unveil (March 14, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10 (Complete)
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5 (complete)
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+10, SB+15
    Apr 19 B$324, SB$359; Finishing B$329, SB$380
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Q2 earnings and call B+0, SB+0
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY orders update
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row - now unlikely
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
      • S/X battery cells - 30% cost reduction confirmed
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0 (moved from 2020)
    • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • ATH B+0, SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation & decision B+30, SB+50
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19) (Ark interview confirmed by end 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  9. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    • Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (close enough)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Crew Dragon test scheduled for 2nd March B+0, SB+0 (complete)
    • LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5 (Complete)
    • Model Y unveil (March 14, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10 (Complete)
    • Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5 (complete)
    • HW3 in production B+0, SB+5 (Complete)

    Added:
    In bold

    Apr 19 Starting B$280; Finishing B$329, SB$380
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+20, SB+25
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      • Event 19th April
    • SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Mar)
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5 (complete)
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
    • V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+24, SB+49
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Q2 earnings and call B+0, SB+0
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY orders update
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row - now unlikely
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
      • S/X battery cells - 30% cost reduction confirmed
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • S/X new motors in production B+0, SB+0
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0 (moved from 2020)
    • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • ATH B+0, SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation & decision B+30, SB+50
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19) (Ark interview confirmed by end 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  10. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    • None

    Added:
    None

    Apr 19 Starting B$280; Finishing B$329, SB$380
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+20, SB+25
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
      • Event 22nd April
    • SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q4)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10 (moved from Mar)
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5 (complete)
    • V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
    • Q2 earnings and call B+0, SB+0 (moved from May)
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY orders update
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row - now unlikely
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
      • S/X battery cells - 30% cost reduction confirmed
    • Other positives B+24, SB+49
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • S/X new motors in production B+0, SB+0
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (moved from Apr)
    • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) ? B+0, SB+0
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • ATH B+0, SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • Break $420 B+0, SB+10 (moved from Feb)
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion realisation & decision B+30, SB+50
    • S&P500 - forced purchase of ~5% of float B+0, SB+0
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19) (Ark interview confirmed by end 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  11. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed
    • Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei) - 2170s? B+0, SB+0
    • MY orders update
    • 3rd profitable quarter in a row - now unlikely
    • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
    • Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
    Added:
    None

    Apr 19 Starting B$280; Finishing B$329, SB$380
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+20, SB+25 (Complete)
      • Event 22nd April
    • SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
    • S/X new motors in production B+0, SB+0 (moved from April)
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5 (complete)
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Q2 earnings and call B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
      • S/X battery cells - 30% cost reduction confirmed
    • Other positives B+24, SB+49
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2 (moved from March)
    • V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (moved from March)
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18) (moved from March)
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (moved from Apr)
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) ? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19) (Ark interview confirmed by end 19)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live? B+100, SB+200
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  12. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed:
    None

    Added:
    Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
    Maxwell deal confirmed B+0, SB+0
    Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0
    Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0

    Million mile battery
    Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
    Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
    FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
    1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
    FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
    Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
    Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0


    Apr 19 Starting B$280; Finishing B$329, SB$380
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+20, SB+25 (Complete)
      • Event 22nd April
    • SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
    • S/X new motors in production B+0, SB+0 (moved from April)
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5 (complete)
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
    • Q2 earnings and call B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
      • S/X battery cells - 30% cost reduction confirmed
    • Other positives B+24, SB+49
    May 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Maxwell deal confirmed B+0, SB+0
    • Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2 (moved from March)
    • V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (moved from March)
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18) (moved from March)
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (moved from Apr)
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
    • Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) ? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
    • Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
    • Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
    • FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  13. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed:
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+20, SB+25 (Complete)
      • Event 22nd April
    • SEC debacle sorted B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • S/X new motors in production B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
    • Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5 (complete)
    • LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2 (complete)
    • Q2 earnings and call B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
      • S/X battery cells - 30% cost reduction confirmed
    Added:
    None

    May 19 Starting $239; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Maxwell deal confirmed B+0, SB+0
    • Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+159, SB+174
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2 (moved from March)
    • V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (moved from March)
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18) (moved from March)
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (moved from Apr)
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
    • Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) ? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
    • Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
    • Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
    • FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  14. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    From main thread:
     
    • Helpful x 1
  15. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2012
    Messages:
    2,608
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    I was wondering why you bumped every single other thread you've started and not this one.
     
  16. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Removed:
    None

    Added:
    From ReflexFunds previous post (in bold)

    May 19 Starting $239; Finishing B$398, SB$413
    • Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0
    • Final Model Y production location
    • GF3 external construction complete
    • Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+0, SB+0 (moved from March)
    • SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3)
    • Maxwell deal confirmed B+0, SB+0
    • Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0
    • Other positives B+159, SB+174
    Jun 19 B$398, SB$413; Finishing B$398, SB$428
    • Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2 (moved from March)
    • V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (moved from March)
    • Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
    • Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
    • GF3 cell suppliers announced
    • Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
    • I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies (expected June 20) B+0, SB+0
      • Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled B+0, SB+5
      • Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
    • Other positives B+0, SB+3
    Q3 19 B$398, SB$428; Finishing B$575, SB$765
    • Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
    • Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
    • New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
    • FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
      • Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18) (moved from March)
    • Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (moved from Apr)
    • GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0
    • Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
    • Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
    • Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
      • Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
      • Tesla Music?
    • Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
    • Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
    • FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
    • Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
    • Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
    • UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
      • Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • M3 margin not impacted by SR
    • Other positives B+102, SB+228
    Q4 19 B$575, SB$765; Finishing B$625, SB$915
    • Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
    • Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
    • Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
    • Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
    • FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
    • Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
    • Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
    • GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
    • TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
    • Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
    • Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
    • Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
    • Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
    • Other positives B+10, SB+75
    2020 B$625, SB$915; Finishing B$1025, SB$1650
    • S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) ? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
    • Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
    • Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
    • Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
    • FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
    • Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
    • Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
    • Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
    • Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
    • Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
    • Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
      • Roadster media reviews?
      • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
    • Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
      • Roadster demos the "hover"
    • Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
    • M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
    • 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
    • Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
    • Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
      • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
      • MY first deliveries
      • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
      • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
    • Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
      • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
      • Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
    • SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
    • SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
    • Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
    • GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
    • Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
    • 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
    • Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
    • Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
    • TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
    • Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
    • Other positives B-20, SB-35
    2021 B$1025, SB$1650; Finishing B$1625, SB$2450
    • Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
      • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
      • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
    • Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
    • Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
    • Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
    • FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
    • Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
      • Pickup first deliveries
      • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
    • Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
    • Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
    • Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
    • Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
    • 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
    • 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
    • Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
    • Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
    • Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
    • Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
      • More than $30B in revenue for 2019
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+40, SB+40
    2022 B$1625, SB$2450; Finishing B$2425, SB$3450
    • Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
    • 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
    • Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
    • Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
    • Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
    • Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+50
    2023 B$2425, SB$3450; Finishing B$2825, SB$3950 ($4000 SP prediction end 2023 (ARK))
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2024 B$2825, SB$3950; Finishing B$3525, SB$4950
    • Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
      • Agricultural Tractor?
      • Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
      • Container ship?
      • Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
    • Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
    • Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
    • Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
    • Other positives B+200, SB+200
    2025
    • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
    • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
    • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
    • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
    • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
    2026

    2027

    2028
    • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
    2029

    2030
    • Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
     
  17. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    4,962
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    #57 EVNow, May 10, 2019
    Last edited: May 10, 2019
    LOL. While anything is possible - if we can't identify a reason, you shouldn't really bump up the SP target.

    BTW, you can move Uber IPO from Q3.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
  18. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    13,418
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    I expect that the next piece of news which will have a positive market reaction is Q3 deliveries. I am positioning myself accordingly, although as a long-term investor I'm mostly just sitting on my stock.

    I could be wrong. Also the market could move on no news at all, which happens a lot.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  19. dqd88

    dqd88 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2018
    Messages:
    560
    Location:
    Sacramento, CA
    Great idea. Did you come up with this? Read it somewhere? They could partner with Sonic.
     
  20. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2018
    Messages:
    1,019
    Location:
    UK
    Elon Musk on Twitter
    It may have been dropped as an idea.
     

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