Some slightly less bullish movements to the right on FSD and Semi.
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None
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In bold.
Jan 19 Starting $333; Finishing B$385, SB$440
2027
2028
2030
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None
Added:
In bold.
Jan 19 Starting $333; Finishing B$385, SB$440
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
- Sustained 6k / week Model 3s? B+5 SB+5
- 7k burst rate in 1 week announced? B+5, SB+5
- Huge number of LEAPS close 18th Jan
- RTL podcast B+0, SB+5
- ATH B+3, SB+5
- Q4 #vehicles built B+5, SB+10 (complete)
- Break $420 B+0, SB+10
- Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan? B+0, SB+2 (Complete)
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+10
- China GF developments B+0, SB+5 (moved from Feb - complete)
- Other positives B+34, SB+42
- 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested) B+5, SB+5
- Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo? B+0, SB+2
- Date announcement for Model Y unveil incl. teaser B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Earnings & call B+10, SB+10 (FC expects ~7 Feb)
- Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
- Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
- Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
- Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
- 2nd profitable quarter
- FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+5
- Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
- Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe B+2, SB+2
- Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet) B+5, SB+5
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+5, SB+5
- 10-K: 2018 annual report, due around February 23. (Friday in 2018 and Saturday in 2019) B+0, SB+0
- Other positives B+3, SB+6
- Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1) B+0, SB+2
- LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews B+5, SB+5
- M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range B+0, SB+2
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+10, SB+10
- Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF1 B+0, SB+2
- Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ... B+5, SB+10
- GF1 confirmed for manufacture
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+5
- Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19) B+5, SB+5
- HW3 in production B+0, SB+5
- Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
- Other positives B+2, SB+4
- Q1 deliveries and production numbers B+0, SB+5
- April Fool's joke from Elon - M3SR cancelled B+0, SB+0
- Mar/April-19 - Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
- Mar-19 - Panasonic 35Gwh/year run rate at GF1
- Apr-19 - Panasonic moving S/X production to US (according to Nikkei)
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
- SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+2
- LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews B+0, SB+2
- Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+2
- Moody upgrade (moved earlier) B+5, SB+5
- Other positives B+0, SB+2
- Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
- Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
- Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
- MY -1m reservations?
- 3rd profitable quarter in a row
- "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
- Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5 (assembly done, waiting BIW)
- Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
- Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
- S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50
- Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
- Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
- Other positives B+0, SB+0
- <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up. B+0, SB+5
- MRM3 discontinued? B+0, SB+0
- Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer? B+0, SB+5
- Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
- Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April B+0, SB+0
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March? B+0, SB+5 (moved from March)
- Other positives B+5, SB+3
- Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
- Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
- MS/MX refresh unveil B+5, SB+5
- Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty? B+5, SB+5
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
- UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0
- Private money exits UBER/Lyft - pours into TSLA
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives B+10, SB+1
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
- Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3) B+0, SB+10
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 B+10, SB+10
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
- Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
- M3 leasing begins worldwide B+0, SB+0
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
- Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
- Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares
- Other positives B+10, SB+65
- Pickup unveil (Elon may manage 2019) B+0, SB+0
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
- FSD (with limitations) goes live? B+10, SB+30 (moved from Q4 19)
- Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
- Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
- Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
- Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets a major interview for being a visionary. B+100, SB+200
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
- Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates? B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
- GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt B+20, SB+20
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
- Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
- TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
- Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Other positives B-20, SB-35
- Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
- Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?) B+100, SB+100
- Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023) B+50, SB+50
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
- Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
- 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+40, SB+40
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
- Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport B+200, SB+300
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+50
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
