Dry powder / milestones

[Buckminster]

Thank you tsunamiofhurt and other members for these dates - I have tried to sequence them and add a few. Please be brutal with any updates/additions to get a democratic estimation of how things will unfold.

Nov/Dec 18

• Reaching 6k / week Model 3s
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors

Jan 19

• Q4 vehicles built and delivered announcement
• Batch registrations of European VINs -Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.

Feb 19

• Reaching 7k / week Model 3s
• China GF developments?
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof ready for production?
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry??

Mar 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Standard Range production (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Maybe an early pickup-prototype unveil too
• Repayment of $800M $359.87 convertible bond (March 1, 2019)
  
• M3SR specs released

Apr 19

• Utility-scale mega-pack?
• Supercharger v3 / mega-chargers
• M3SR media reviews

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp (~H1 '19)
  • storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1 IIRCFSD features v10?
  • MY -1m reservations?

• Rollout of HW3 (expected 2nd qtr)
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when??

Jun 19

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Semi production starts?
• Roadster production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX updates
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer
• Roadster media reviews
• GF3 (china) begins production

2020

• Tesla network goes live
• MY first production
• MY first deliveries
• Pickup first production
• Pickup first deliveries
• Golf competitor unveiled
• GF4 begins production

2021

2022
Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)

 

[suwaneedad]

Repayment of $800M $359.87 convertible bond (March 1, 2019)

I've read that this is $920M (not $800M), and that the holder has a conversion option that begins 12/1/18 and runs into 3/19.
If the stock price gets above $360 in December (onward), I'm curious to see whether having ~$920M of new stock issued (and to a great extent, sold) results in downward pressure on the stock price.
Not to mention shorts may intentionally push the price below $360 to prevent Tesla from being able to have the market pay off the bonds rather than Tesla having to do so with company cash.
The stock price will be fascinating to watch from December into March, if it is hovering around $360.
I suspect we will see very strong Q4 volumes and financials reported, and then the usual splashy Model Y reveal in mid-March to help Tesla try to get the stock price comfortably higher than $360 so that the shorts can't manipulate it below $360 before the convertible bonds have to be redeemed.

 

[Buckminster]

Thanks suwaneedad - change made. I have added some from a Fact Checking post overnight plus some others - all in bold:

Nov/Dec 18

• Reaching 6k / week Model 3s
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the BRExit uncertainty one way or another

Jan 19

• Q4 vehicles built and delivered announcement
• Batch registrations of European VINs -Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.
• Potential trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs?

Feb 19

• Reaching 7k / week Model 3s
• China GF developments?
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof ready for production?
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry??
• The long overdue Moody's upgrade of Tesla
• TSLA ATH
• TSLA breaks $420

Mar 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Standard Range production (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Maybe an early pickup-prototype unveil too
• Repayment of $9200M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released

Apr 19

• Utility-scale mega-pack?
• Supercharger v3 / mega-chargers
• M3SR media reviews

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp (~H1 '19)
  • storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1 IIRCFSD features v10?
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter
    
  • Pictures released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
  • Positive P/E ratio

• Rollout of HW3 (expected 2nd qtr)
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when??

Jun 19

• Platooning demo?
• $100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out across M3
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Semi production starts?
• Roadster production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX updates
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer
• Roadster media reviews
• GF3 (china) begins production

2020

• Tesla network goes live
• MY first production
• MY first deliveries
• Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published
• Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress
• Pickup first production
• Pickup first deliveries
• Golf competitor unveiled
• GF4 begins production

2021

• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)

 

[Buckminster]

Further updates in bold. Apologies, if there is too much fiction in here for some. This is not the super bull thread - genuinely trying to represent the most likely future - please drag me back to reality.

Nov/Dec 18

• Reaching 6k / week Model 3s
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the BRExit uncertainty one way or another

Jan 19

• Q4 vehicles built and delivered announcement
• Batch registrations of European VINs -Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.
• Potential trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media

Feb 19

• Reaching 7k / week Model 3s
• China GF developments?
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof ready for production?
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry?
• The long overdue Moody's upgrade of Tesla
• TSLA ATH
• TSLA breaks $420

Mar 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Standard Range production (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Maybe an early pickup-prototype unveil too
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range

Apr 19

• Utility-scale mega-pack?
• Supercharger v3 / mega-chargers
• M3SR media reviews

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp (~H1 '19)
  • storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1 IIRCFSD features v10?
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter
    
  • Pictures released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• Rollout of HW3 (expected 2nd qtr)
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when??

Jun 19

• Platooning demo?
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3
• MRM3 discontinued
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA
  
• SpaceX ISS astronaut delivery (scheduled for June)
• Semi production starts?
• Roadster production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX updates
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer
• Roadster media reviews
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)
• Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph
• GF3 (china) begins production
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone

2020

• Tesla network goes live
• 2020 - M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)
• MY first production
• MY first deliveries
• Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, golf competitor, aircraft?, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
• Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress
• Pickup first production
• Pickup first deliveries
• Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing
  
• Golf competitor unveiled
• GF4 begins production
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure

2021

• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• 2170 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)
  
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft

 

[Buckminster]

Tidy-up:

Nov/Dec 18

• 6k / week Model 3s?
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another

Jan 19

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
• Potential trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media

Feb 19

• 7k / week Model 3s?
• China GF developments
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry?
• The long overdue Moody's upgrade of Tesla

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Maybe an early pickup prototype unveil too
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• Supercharger v3 announcement?
• M3SR media reviews

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1 IIRCFSD features v10?
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter
    
  • Pictures released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• Rollout of Autopilot / FSD HW3 (expected 2nd qtr)
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
  
• SpaceX ISS astronaut delivery (scheduled for June)
• Semi production starts?
• Roadster production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster media reviews?
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
• Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?

2020

• Tesla network goes live?
• 2020 - M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• MY first production
• MY first deliveries
• Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
• Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Pickup first production
• Pickup first deliveries
• Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
  
• Golf competitor unveiled?
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?

2021

• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
  
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft

 

[Heimdallr]

2021

• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach (...)

You are delusional. ;-)

 

[Buckminster]

Minor updates:

Nov/Dec 18

• 6k / week Model 3s?
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another

Jan 19

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
• Potential trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media

Feb 19

• 7k / week Model 3s?
• China GF developments
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe
• The long overdue Moody's upgrade of Tesla

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Maybe an early pickup prototype unveil too
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• Supercharger v3 announcement?
• M3SR US media reviews
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1 IIRCFSD features v10?
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter
    
  • Pictures released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• Rollout of Autopilot / FSD HW3 (expected 2nd qtr)
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
  
• SpaceX ISS astronaut delivery (scheduled for June)
• Semi production starts?
• Roadster production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster media reviews?
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
• Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?

2020

• Tesla network goes live?
• 2020 - M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• MY first production
• MY first deliveries
• Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
• Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Pickup first production
• Pickup first deliveries
• Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
  
• Golf competitor unveiled?
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?

2021

• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
  
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft

 

[Heimdallr]

Elon Musk wants to achieve 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of Nov, which means they will probably get it done by the end of December. That said, most of your nearer-term milestones seem quite accurate to me, whereas the ones a few years out I see very differently. For example, in my view there is no way that Tesla will start producing the pick-up truck in 2020. It would already be a great sign of strength if they start volume production of the previously announced Tesla Semi and Tesla Roadster 2.0 as well as Model Y.

 

[Heimdallr]

My version of the bull-case scenario:

End of 2018

• Appointment of two new independent directors
• 7,000 Model 3 vehicle per week run rate achieved by the end of the year

Q1 2019

• Q418 vehicle production & deliveries announcement, around 100k for both
• International rollout of Model 3, initially in Europe and China
• Supercharger v3 starts to rollout
• Q4 Earnings & Call, profitable and positive cashflow
• Moody's upgrade following Q4 earnings as financial situation improves further
• Model 3 SR orders start

Q2 2019

• Model 3 SR volume production
• Further international rollout of Model 3, e.g. to rest of Asia Pacific
• GF4 (Europe) announcement
• Model Y unveil, possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
• Utility-scale battery Megapack announcement and rollout
• New AI hardware built into all new cars and made available for upgrade
• New production sites announced for US
• Solar roof goes into volume production

Q3 2019

• As Model 3 ramp completes, margins approaching 25% despite declining ASP
• New Model S/X interiors following Model 3 ramp
• Major improvements to in-car entertainment, such as karaoke, games, movies etc.
• Low-volume production of Tesla Semi begins
• TSLA will be added to the S&P 500 index

Q4 2019

• Production and deliveries of more than 450k vehicles in 2019
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Full self-driving demo

2020

• Tesla Network details announced, rollout according to autonomous driving legislation
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
  
• Roadster 2.0 goes into production, maybe 5,000 units per year
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
• Next-level Tesla Pick-up truck will be unveiled
• Massive reductions in cost per kWh, <100$ at the pack-level, zero cobalt

2021

• Production and deliveries of at least 700k vehicles in 2020
• Tesla compact car unveiled
• Pick-up truck enters production
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• It will finally be clear to almost anyone that Elon Musk is the real deal, SpaceX, the Boring Company and Neuralink will help

2022 and beyond

• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real
• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)

 

[Navin]

Good list. Will add s&p 500 inclusion to next year

 

[Buckminster]

Various updates including some from Fact Checker on MA, Elon tweets plus Heimdallr above (in bold):

Nov/Dec 18

• 6k / week Model 3s?
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode

Jan 19

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
• Potential trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media

Feb 19

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested)
• China GF developments
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe
• The long overdue Moody's upgrade of Tesla
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet)

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March?
  
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range
• HW3 in production

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• Megapack unveiling?
• SRM3 US media reviews
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1 IIRCFSD features v10?
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter
    
  • Pictures released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• Rollout of Autopilot / FSD HW3 (expected 2nd qtr)
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• Production and deliveries of more than 450k vehicles in 2019
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer
• Moody upgrade
• Astronaut delivery to ISS

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
  
• SpaceX ISS astronaut delivery (scheduled for June)
• Semi production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also)
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast (moved from Q2)
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  
• Roadster media reviews?
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
• Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019

2020

• Tesla network goes live?
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• 2020 - M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
• MY first deliveries
• Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
• Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?

2021

• Production and deliveries of at least 700k vehicles in 2020
• Pickup first production (moved from 2020 Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?

• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored

• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?

• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k

• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone

• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet

• 1m autos produced in year

• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft
• Tesla house / RV unveiled?
  
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

2025/6

• • It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
  • Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
  • The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
  • A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
  • Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• • Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[Steve m]

When does Panasonic sell its battery division and pv cell divisions to Tesla perhaps in exchange for shates of TSLA?

 

[Buckminster]

When does Panasonic sell its battery division and pv cell divisions to Tesla perhaps in exchange for shates of TSLA?

Not on my watch. I think it would be wrong to go down that route. Tesla have most of the IP. Keep Pana honest - Samsung already used for TE. Capitalise on very likely game changing technology improvements in the future from various companies (Graphene will happen eventually - I am Buckminster after all). In addition, battery supply from other local companies will be beneficial to getting good GF deals.

 

[Steve m]

So much for vertical integration and controlling the ip.

 

[Buckminster]

A few additions plus tidy up:

Nov/Dec 18

• 6k / week Model 3s?
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced?
• Golden cross media reports
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode

Jan 19

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
• Potential trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo?

Feb 19

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested)
• China GF developments
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet)

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March?
  
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range
• HW3 in production

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• SRM3 US media reviews
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews
• Pravduh.com launches?

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• Production and deliveries of more than 450k vehicles in 2019
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer?
• Moody upgrade (Fact Checker date - earlier would be nice)
• Astronaut delivery to ISS

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
• Semi production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also)
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019

2020

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary.
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019)
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
  • MY first deliveries
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?

2021

• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?)
• Production and deliveries of at least 700k vehicles in 2020
• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)? (moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[Buckminster]

Insignificant updates:

Nov/Dec 18

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s?
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced?
• Golden cross media reports
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode

Jan 19

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
• Potential trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo?

Feb 19

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested)
• China GF developments
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet)

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) announcement?
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March?
  
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range
• HW3 in production

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• SRM3 US media reviews
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews
• Pravduh.com launches?

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• Production and deliveries of more than 450k vehicles in 2019
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer?
• Moody upgrade (Fact Checker date - earlier would be nice)
• Astronaut delivery to ISS

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
• Semi production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also)
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019

2020

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary.
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019)
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
  • MY first deliveries
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
• Side project - Mecha unveiled?
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled?
• First boring company brick home completed?
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?

2021

• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?)
• Production and deliveries of at least 700k vehicles in 2020
• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[ggr]

First boring company brick home completed?

Nahh, next year at the latest. Elon will buy a vacant property and build one, if no-one else does.

 

[jbih]

Nahh, next year at the latest. Elon will buy a vacant property and build one, if no-one else does.

10 December - first The Boring Company brick watchtower completed

 

[Buckminster]

Various updates from jbih, FC, ggr etc.:

Nov/Dec 18

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s?
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced?
• Golden cross media reports
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed

Jan 19

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo?

Feb 19

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested)
• China GF developments
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet)
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire)

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement?
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March?
  
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range
• HW3 in production

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• SRM3 US media reviews
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews
• Pravduh.com launches?
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier)

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 -- Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• Production and deliveries of more than 450k vehicles in 2019
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer?
• Astronaut delivery to ISS

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
• Semi production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also)
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020)
  
• Tesla communications improve
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares

2020

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary.
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019)
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
  • MY first deliveries
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
• Side project - Mecha unveiled?
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled?
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?

2021

• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?)
• Production and deliveries of at least 700k vehicles in 2020
• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)

 

[Buckminster]

Removed:
Golden cross media reports - it happened but no reports - perhaps expected. Papafox I think suggested that we are limited a bit by the upper Bollinger Band.

Added:
Mostly related to Model Y IB leak:

Nov/Dec 18

• Sustained 6k / week Model 3s?
• 7k burst rate in 1 week announced?
• Opening of Model 3 orders for Europe/Asia (expected ~December)
• RTL podcast
• Appointment of two new independent directors
• Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
• Christmas Easter eggs - games, romance mode
• First The Boring Company brick watchtower completed

Jan 19

• Q4 #vehicles built and delivered announcement - around 100k for both
• Batch registrations of European VINs - Jan?
• Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
• Waymo launch - scheduled for Dec 18 - Autonomous hype begins in the media
• Cyborg Dragon unveiled and used to announce GF3 progress on Chinese New Year (5th Feb)? EM stated nearly ready in June 18. Chinese dragon - early Semi platooning demo?

Feb 19

• 7k / week Model 3s? (I'm sticking with this - Dec/Jan suggested)
• China GF developments
• Q4 Earnings & call
  • Continued OpEx reduction as percentage of revenue
  • Storage continuing to ramp (3X MWh deployed in 2019 v. 2018)
    
  • Solar roof tests complete and ready for production?
  • Significant solar panel ramp following 20% price reduction Nov 18
  • 2nd profitable quarter
• FSD features and other updates to v9
  
• Resolution of DOJ inquiry? - No longer an issue I believe
• Supercharger v3 rollout announcement? (moved from Q2 - Elon tweet)
• Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs? (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire)

Mar 19

• Standard Range production starts (expected ~late Q1)
• GF4 (Europe) location announcement?
• Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled - March?
  
• LRM3 European deliveries & media reviews
• Any signs of buildout of vehicle manufacturing GF 1
• Model Y unveil (March 15, 2019) ...
  • GF1 confirmed for manufacture
• Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
  
• Repayment of $920M $359.87 convertible bond (12/1/18 and runs into 3/19)
  
• M3SR specs released - lighter battery (2170 V1.5) improves upon 5.6 sec 0-60 plus 220 mile range
• HW3 in production

Apr 19

• Q1 deliveries and production numbers
• Utility-scale mega-pack announcement?
• SRM3 US media reviews
• LRM3 China deliveries & media reviews
• Pravduh.com launches?
• Moody upgrade (moved earlier)

May 19

• Q2 earnings and call
  • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
  • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
  • MY -1m reservations?
  • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
    
  • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
• Positive P/E ratio
• S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe)
• Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when?

Jun 19

• Semi Platooning demo?
• Production and deliveries of more than 450k vehicles in 2019
• <$100/kWh battery confirmed post SR and rolled out to LRM3. Confirmed for storage, Semi, Roadster, MY & Pick-up.
• MRM3 discontinued?
• Strategic partnerships agreed with Panasonic (expansion) and robot manufacturer?
• Astronaut delivery to ISS

Q3 19

• Snake supercharger unveiled ?
• Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k?
• Autopilot V10 launches - games, Netflix?
• Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
• Semi production starts?
• Megapack deliveries start?
• MS/MX refresh unveil
• Pickup unveil (moved from Mar 19, 2020 suggested also)
  
• Potential trade deal between Europe and the U.S., removing tariff uncertainty?
  
• FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast?
  
• Q2 earnings & call
  • M3 margin not impacted by SR

Q4 19

• FSD (with limitations) goes live?
• Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
• Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
• Roadster production starts? (moved from Q3)
  • Roadster media reviews?
  • Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
• GF3 (china) begins production of M3
• TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
• Superchargers doubled within 2019
• First boring company brick home completed? (moved from 2020)
  
• Tesla communications improve
  • Neroden decides not to retire from forum and sell majority of TSLA shares

2020

• Tesla network goes live? - Cathy Wood gets an Oprah interview for being a visionary.
• Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs
• Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019)
• Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units
• More than $30B in revenue for 2019
• M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
  
• 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
• Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
• Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
  • Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
  • MY first deliveries
  • 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
  • Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi

• Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
  • Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
• Boring company begin testing first Tesla built skates?
• SpaceX BFR first flight (scheduled for 2019)?
• SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
• Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
• Golf competitor unveiled? (2021 suggested)
• GF4 begins production?
• Next gen battery (2170 2.0) production starts - zero cobalt
  
• 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
• Side project - Mecha unveiled?
• Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled?
• Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?

2021

• Model Y production ramp
  • Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
  • According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
• Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
• Golf competitor unveiled? (moved from 2020 - what was I thinking?)

• Pickup first production (Gali thinks 2023)
  • Pickup first deliveries
  • Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
• Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
• Model S/X get overhauled with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
• Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
• Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
• 1m autos produced in year
• Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
• Elon awarded Nobel peace prize
• Boring company announces first hyperloop project

2022

• Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
• 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021)
  
• Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)
• Tesla begin developing aircraft - buy hanger next to an Airport
• Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real

2023/4

• Tesla house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022)

2025/6

• It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
• Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
• The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
• A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
• Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)

2027/8

• Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)