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Dual Motor v RWD in PNW

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We live in Redmond and have an AWD Model X with winter tires. It was extremely competent in the snow. I purchased winter tires on a spare set of wheels and always put on the winter tires for the winter months, even though we rarely have snow. The fact is any direction you drive from the Seattle area you're likely to run into snow, so I like the security of having the winter tires on the car. The winter tires generally outperform all-weather tires in low temperatures. The only disadvantage is slightly increased tire noise.
 
AWD model with stock all season tires was incredible this past winter. We live in a quarter mile private driveway. Never shoveled or plowed, just punched it out of the garage and broke trail every morning. Never slipped even when scrapping the deep snow on the bottom.

Also took out skiing every weekend with no troubles. Much better the my Subaru outback on all respects.

Don't wait for a used SD, get a new 3D while the credit is still live, looks to be cheaper than the links you posted and the battery will be new and charge faster.
 
AWD model with stock all season tires was incredible this past winter. We live in a quarter mile private driveway. Never shoveled or plowed, just punched it out of the garage and broke trail every morning. Never slipped even when scrapping the deep snow on the bottom.

Also took out skiing every weekend with no troubles. Much better the my Subaru outback on all respects.

Don't wait for a used SD, get a new 3D while the credit is still live, looks to be cheaper than the links you posted and the battery will be new and charge faster.

Long range AWD is $57k. - $3750.
75D will be around 45k

I personally just like the look of the MS (Interior and Exterior) compared to M3, and I know battery tech is superior in the M3D, just with a couple of kids and 2 dogs, the MS is worth it.
Next car for my wife will be the Model Y.
 
Are you keeping the Subaru?

As a hiring manager " Should I sell or keep my car? It's a _____." is a question I get a lot from folks moving to W.Washington. My first question back (40 years living here, plus another 40+ of "grandpa/dad stories") is always: Do you have to go up a hill to get within what you consider walking distance of home in the snow?

If the answer to that question is "yes" I tell them to make sure they have at least one AWD car with all-seasons. Beyond that they need to learn more about their neighborhood before knowing if they also need winter tires, and I suggest asking people who have lived there a while. (people love offering opinions on snowstorms after all, look at this thread!)

Besides that I think we'd need to know more about your situation. Do you have to get to work? Do you have to get kids to/from school or whatever? Can you keep a spare set of winter tires? (I sometimes also argue you also have to be able to put them on at home). Finally do you travel to the mountains ever where you do not fully control your schedule (e.g. elderly parent lives in Yakima)? If so that's pretty much a default.
 
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I thought (overthought actually) about this question for a long time before buying my LR RWD last year. Ultimately I decided to just spend the money on some good snow tires but I'd keep my pickup for any "bad" days that the Model 3 couldn't handle. I ran Nokian Hakkapeliitta R3's all winter and sold my pickup after the first snowfall. I had enough confidence in the Tesla that I preferred driving it over my wife's Audi Q3 w/ Quattro. The traction control on this thing is stupid good... so good that I found it tough to have any fun around corners. The only time I was nervous was driving through ~6" of un-plowed slush near my office and that was only due to clearance issues. I don't regret the RWD at all.
 
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