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Early adopter peak is this over yet?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Dan43, May 10, 2013.

  1. Dan43

    Dan43 Member

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    I am a UK reservation holder for a Model S and while looking through the recent stock increase I came across an interesting article on early adopters and the first wave of purchases.

    It occurred to me that it is possible a lot of people will see through any early issues as the car would have been purchased by those people anyway, like me wanting to see this technology gather a foothold and move forwards.

    On the Tesla forum one owner had a battery fail completely out the blue (ICE engines do the same also) but wondered if there was any merit in this early adoption stage where the euphoria and early reports then get lost in the second phase of ownership and use?

    Like any new system, the early adopters would have gone in anyway, or has we passed this phase with cars now being over 6 months old and proving their durability? Plus of course the new CR review seems fairly strong, can this car get past this early phase or has it already?

    Just asking.
    Dan43
     
  2. akula

    akula Member

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    This car is way past this at this point. The best indicator of that is Elon's stat of 25% conversion after test drive. I think if anything, a real early adaptor bought the roadster or the signature US model s at best.
     
  3. William13

    William13 Member

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    As an early adopter I can say that I put money done 4 years ago. The first 2000 cars were early adopters. I know at least the two recent purchases/delieries here in my town in the last month were car people.
     
  4. Al Sherman

    Al Sherman It's about THIS car.

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    We can split hairs on this all day. I certainly FEEL like an early adopter. That's just personal. Deep down though I think an early adopter was always getting the car, and put their money down before they were actually being produced. I DO think the EA phase is over for certain.
     
  5. bhuwan

    bhuwan Active Member

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    I'd say we are all early adopters -
     
  6. JohnQ

    JohnQ Active Member

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    Someone on another thread made a good point. Are current reservations early adopters? What about pre-production folks? What about roadster owners? What about EV-1 owners?

    It's turtles all the way down. It's still an "unproven" vehicle in that there's no track record on long term reliability. We're just nearing the 1 year anniversary of the first production delivery. In my book, that makes everyone here an early adopter ...
     
  7. S.Nin.Chalmers

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    Guinea pigs? No. Early adopters? Yes, absolutely.

    I was in the Toronto store yesterday for a good hour. I'm still blown away by how almost nobody knows anything about the car. It was either "I know everything" 1/20 people, or "Is thisss a hybrid? What happens when you run out of battery?" 19/20.
     
  8. bhuwan

    bhuwan Active Member

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    Exactly what I am trying to say :)
     
  9. Smallfootprint

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    There are definitely different tiers of early adopters with different risk-preference curves.

    I think it was a different group of people who put down money for a roadster before there were any Tesla vehicles on the road. A somewhat less risk-averse group put deposits on the Model S years in advance when there was only an alpha roller prototype and many of the specs were subject to change. Finally there are the current early adopters that are buying the car now with ~4-8 week lead times and after it won many car/auto of the year awards.

    Having fallen into the second group I'm grateful for both the more risk-loving people who paved the way, and the more risk-averse who are now buying the car and keeping the momentum going.

    After significant numbers of the cars have been on the road for about a year - probably Q3/Q4 2013, it's probably safe to call the early adopter phase over.
     
  10. ToddRLockwood

    ToddRLockwood Active Member

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    Totally agree that there are multiple tiers, but I think this could go on for years before it's considered mainstream. I don't see the end of early adoption as being a line in the sand.
     
  11. kinddog

    kinddog Banned

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    #11 kinddog, May 10, 2013
    Last edited: May 10, 2013
    I think that for us, who live on TMC forums and have been following the development of this car for years, we are "over it" and wonder why everyone in America doesn't have a Model S at this point.

    However, I am reminded when talking to friends, family, and strangers that they still think I am CRAZY for buying this new technology while it's still so young. They DEFINITELY consider me an early-adopter because I drive a Model S and most of them say something to the effect of "amazing car. but I think i'll wait a few years before I consider one".

    So, no, I disagree that the early adopter phase is over. I think it will last another 2 years at least in the eyes of the general public.

    - - - Updated - - -

    correctamundo.

    also think about location. in northern California? not early adopter. almost mainstream. in central bumfork Virginia (hi Todd Burch!), he is damn near an astronaut walking on the moon driving one of these things! :biggrin:

    just take a look at the "random Model S sightings" thread. Californians see 5 per day at this point. I live in a wealthy suburb of Washington DC and I have only seen 3 on the road in my life. THREE! TOTAL!
     
  12. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I've had more than that in my driveway at one time (plus my Roadster and someone's Leaf) ... and yes, northern California. Of course, there was also a neighbor's tractor parked in the mix. I live in an eclectic neighborhood. :)
     
  13. toto_48313

    toto_48313 CAN P #5

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    I agree with that approach... anyone who place a reservation prior to june 2012 (may be until end of 2012) is an early adopter. But after that it was not that early.
    I place my reservation in march 2009 but got a VIN 4241, so I don't think the VIN could be a reference for EA or not...

    whatever we are EA or not, I'm confident that we are all happy owner!
     
  14. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    FWIW, I'm a Roadster owner and don't consider myself an early adopter. I bought my car in 2011, after 1) Tesla was publicly traded, and 2) after Tesla had delivered over 900 cars.

    I consider the early adopters to be the early Roadster owners who put very large deposits down on faith, never having seen the car, not knowing if the company would make it. And without them, it would not have made it.
     
  15. kinddog

    kinddog Banned

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    good point. but i would almost consider those people "investors". above and beyond "early adopting".
     
  16. Plug Me In

    Plug Me In Member

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    <---------

    I resemble that remark. Todd's eastern bumfork Virginia, I'm central bumfork Virginia. Charging infrastructure here consists of my house and the Nissan dealer.
     
  17. Vexar

    Vexar Member

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    I think that what Tesla has told me applies: we are pioneers. Everyone I know who has a Tesla is an advocate. In some way, they are passionate about at least one of the following:
    1. New technology
    2. The environment
    3. Innovative design and performance
    4. Seeing an old industry change

    And there will be more than my list. Recognizing that this thread is about market segment, I regularly experience people who want one but can't afford it, whether it's a receptionist, some high school kid, or some college students who gathered in the parking lot and were talking about my car when I came up to it. Those folks are not early adopters. They are going to/have to wait until the manufacturing process can be more efficient and the price can come down or Generation 3 comes out. The people who buy a Tesla because they read a Consumer Reports review, or saw an accolade and decided to go for it and get one, they waited until someone they trust said something about the car first.

    I know I'm an early adopter because I decided to put my deposit down on the Model S before I had seen one in person, before I'd been to a demo center, and before they had gotten too far along with the beta. I didn't want a Roadster because it wasn't practical for my uses of a car, and I'm not a skilled enough driver to own one and do it any justice.
     
  18. GasDoc

    GasDoc Member

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    Your quote reminds me of Geoffrey Moore's 1991 book "Crossing the Chasm" where Moore talks about the various segments of the markets and the "chasm" that lies between them.

    [​IMG]from this article

    I'm guessing that right now Tesla has crossed the Innovator chasm and is in the early adopter phase. With the stellar reviews and positive press, it looks like the company will make it into the early majority phase. In some markets (Bay Area and LA) it's probably already in that segment.
     
  19. Owner

    Owner Active Member

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    I resemble these remarks...

    I think I agree with kinddog. The term "early adopters" might more typically apply to Model S people with Vin's up to 5,000 or so.

    Those of us who put $50K down on a car in 2006 after talking to a company in a high school parking lot are probably a little fanatical.:biggrin:
     
  20. brianstorms

    brianstorms Member

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    Thanks GasDoc for bringing up "Crossing the Chasm", I was about to and you took care of that even better than I would've.

    I think Tesla is pure early-adopter territory and will remain probably well into 2014.

    I don't think Tesla has crossed the chasm at all yet. But what excites me tremendously is that Elon and company are building amazing bridges that have the potential to make it a cinch for people to cross that chasm without any fear, uncertainty, or doubt. The company is systematically demolishing all impediments to widespread adoption, and if they keep at it, I really do think we'll have an Apple-like company in our midst.

    We have to get way past 20,000 vehicles though. 50,000, or even 100,000 shipped, more like it. And incredible success stories with the Supercharger network or whatever this mystery announcement is.

    If Elon and co. have really managed to pull off a way to get the Model S to recharge in minutes, or using Metal-Air Batteries, extend the range 2x or 3x or 4x, then again, they could very well eliminate the chasm altogether, and see enormous growth. I have a hunch that is the path they're on. Hence, I am long $TSLA stock.
     

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