Early adopter peak is this over yet?

[GasDoc]

Thanks GasDoc for bringing up "Crossing the Chasm",
I think Tesla is pure early-adopter territory and will remain probably well into 2014.

I don't think Tesla has crossed the chasm at all yet. ..

Depends on which chasm you mean. I'm fairly certain that it's crossed from the Innovators into the Early Adopters. IMHO, the innovators where the guys ready to gamble $150k on a roadster or put down the $40k for the Signature model. I consider myself an early adopter and think we are still in that territory. With the way the company is getting covered in mainstream news and reviews like Consumer Reports, I hope that it'll cross over into the mainstream in 2014.

 

[Lyon]

As more and more people on this forum get cars and drive them for many months I find myself lulled into the sense that this car/company/technology is main stream/well known/etc. Then I get stopped in a parking lot by someone who has no idea what the car is.

My point, if I have one, is that everyone with a Model S now is an early adopter. There are only around 10,000 owners in the world at this point and the company we're all counting on to provide service/warranty/etc in the future just managed to turn it's first quarterly profit.

 

[SFOTurtle]

Spot on in its entirety.

I think that for us, who live on TMC forums and have been following the development of this car for years, we are "over it" and wonder why everyone in America doesn't have a Model S at this point.

However, I am reminded when talking to friends, family, and strangers that they still think I am CRAZY for buying this new technology while it's still so young. They DEFINITELY consider me an early-adopter because I drive a Model S and most of them say something to the effect of "amazing car. but I think i'll wait a few years before I consider one".

So, no, I disagree that the early adopter phase is over. I think it will last another 2 years at least in the eyes of the general public.

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correctamundo.

also think about location. in northern California? not early adopter. almost mainstream. in central bumfork Virginia (hi Todd Burch!), he is damn near an astronaut walking on the moon driving one of these things! :biggrin:

just take a look at the "random Model S sightings" thread. Californians see 5 per day at this point. I live in a wealthy suburb of Washington DC and I have only seen 3 on the road in my life. THREE! TOTAL!

 

[rcc]

Depends on which chasm you mean. I'm fairly certain that it's crossed from the Innovators into the Early Adopters. IMHO, the innovators where the guys ready to gamble $150k on a roadster or put down the $40k for the Signature model. I consider myself an early adopter and think we are still in that territory. With the way the company is getting covered in mainstream news and reviews like Consumer Reports, I hope that it'll cross over into the mainstream in 2014.

I think it's crossing over into Early Adopters only in the Bay Area. Given proximity to the factory, high-tech friendly population, high average income and CA EV incentives (HOV stickers especially), we're Ground Zero for Tesla.

I think the rest of the country is still at the Innovators stage.

Doesn't matter what the initial reviews are, it's still a leap of faith to buy a $70K+ car using new proprietary h/w and s/w when there's a real possibility that the company might not be in business a few years down the road.

 

[AlMc]

I think it's crossing over into Early Adopters only in the Bay Area. Given proximity to the factory, high-tech friendly population, high average income and CA EV incentives (HOV stickers especially), we're Ground Zero for Tesla.

I think the rest of the country is still at the Innovators stage.

Doesn't matter what the initial reviews are, it's still a leap of faith to buy a $70K+ car using new proprietary h/w and s/w when there's a real possibility that the company might not be in business a few years down the road.

I totally agree. If you live on the west coast you are reporting seeing good numbers on your daily drives. On the East coast, particularly the mid Atlantic states up into New England the market is just starting to penetrate. So, I think many on the east coast that have gotten their vehicles or placed orders before the recent quarterly earnings release/CR report, if not 'early adopters', are 'nearly early adopters. :smile:

 

[highfalutintodd]

Here in Middle Tennessee, I get the feeling I'm going to be closer to the "astronaut" level than even the early adopter level.

 

[TNEVol]

Or the Daniel Boone level. I haven't seen on yet.

 

[smorgasbord]

FWIW, I'm a Roadster owner and don't consider myself an early adopter.

Yeah, me too, but "Early Majority" and Roadster owner are oxymorons.

 

[rcc]

I think it's crossing over into Early Adopters only in the Bay Area. Given proximity to the factory, high-tech friendly population, high average income and CA EV incentives (HOV stickers especially), we're Ground Zero for Tesla.

I think the rest of the country is still at the Innovators stage.

Doesn't matter what the initial reviews are, it's still a leap of faith to buy a $70K+ car using new proprietary h/w and s/w when there's a real possibility that the company might not be in business a few years down the road.

After further thought, I think the S is still in the Innovator's stage. It's just that parts of CA and in particular Silicon Valley have a higher % of folks who are willing to take that kind of risk.

Think about it this way. In addition to whether the S quality will stand up and whether Tesla will be around N years from now:

- Everyone who bought an S before April/May bought from a company that was burning cash, not generating cash.
- Everyone who bought prior to January/Feb did so before it was clear that the company could sustain decent quality at their target volume rate (~450/week)
- The Signature buyers finalized and bought before it was clear Tesla could even build good quality cars off their line at greater than "handmade" volume.

To my mind, the true value of the Signature is that it's proof that you had the vision and how shall I put this? -- large enough reproductive anatomy to be one of the first buyers.

I'm sure that's good for major bragging rights in certain circles of Silicon Valley right now.

 

[Jason S]

My neighborhood is near Bonnie's, but the questions around here vary. Most will just accept that electric car works.

Many times people don't know what the car is but like its look.

A recent example: at the local Walgreen's my wife and I stepped out to see somebody oogling the car. Answered a few questions, demo'd the AC (warm out) and talked about charging -- overnight easily gets a full charge... and the lady asking the questions did the mental math and figured the car could be an economical upgrade to her BMW while providing the range she needs for her sales job (~150-200 miles per day). Visit website, do the math, see how it works out.

I can't think of another car with this kind selling point. You could just tell this lady was thinking A) how much money she could save on fuel and B) time she saves by never having to take it in for service (Tesla ranger comes to her) and never having to visit a gas station.

Details details. People really do love this car.

... And that's more or less the point. It isn't really early adopter at this point because that isn't part of the conversation. Last year it was, now it isn't. Nobody is concerned that Tesla won't be there next year, they are more concerned that they'll wait more than a few months for their car.

 

[GSP]

Depends on which chasm you mean. I'm fairly certain that it's crossed from the Innovators into the Early Adopters. IMHO, the innovators where the guys ready to gamble $150k on a roadster or put down the $40k for the Signature model. I consider myself an early adopter and think we are still in that territory. With the way the company is getting covered in mainstream news and reviews like Consumer Reports, I hope that it'll cross over into the mainstream in 2014.

The nationwide Supercharger rollout in 2013 will be a key enabler for early majority, mainstream, purchases in 2014.

GSP

 

[Daniel Scherer]

Guinea pigs? No. Early adopters? Yes, absolutely.

I was in the Toronto store yesterday for a good hour. I'm still blown away by how almost nobody knows anything about the car. It was either "I know everything" 1/20 people, or "Is thisss a hybrid? What happens when you run out of battery?" 19/20.

I agree with is completely. I plan on hitting the local parking lot car shows with my MS that start next week and expect the same thing. Not many people are aware this car exists.

 

[vfx]

Talking with a service employee he said that owners now are not the forgiving early adopters they have been dealing with for all these years. Now buyers just think it's a car. A high end car that should have high end service amenities. For them the newness honeymoon is over.

I'd say we are out of Early adopter stage at 100,000 cars and some regions will saturate much sooner than others. I'd plot what GB is doing with stores. Also I would track the adoption of the IPhone.

 

[TitaniumOverload]

Talking with a service employee he said that owners now are not the forgiving early adopters they have been dealing with for all these years. Now buyers just think it's a car. A high end car that should have high end service amenities. For them the newness honeymoon is over.

I'd say we are out of Early adopter stage at 100,000 cars and some regions will saturate much sooner than others. I'd plot what GB is doing with stores. Also I would track the adoption of the IPhone.

Dead on, I suspect with the financial info and the glowing CR reports we are going to see an increasing wave of folks buying the car just like they would any other luxury car; and there by expecting it to work and be serviced just like the car they had before, BMW, Lexus, etc... The problem is currently owning/driving a Tesla still requires a bit more work and commitment than a standard ICE car. Likely we will see a dip in satisfaction until the wider public becomes more comfortable with BEV and the service networks becomes denser.

 

[ZestyChicken]

Talking with a service employee he said that owners now are not the forgiving early adopters they have been dealing with for all these years. Now buyers just think it's a car. A high end car that should have high end service amenities. For them the newness honeymoon is over.

I'd say we are out of Early adopter stage at 100,000 cars and some regions will saturate much sooner than others. I'd plot what GB is doing with stores. Also I would track the adoption of the IPhone.

Do you mean 10,000? 100,000 might take 5 years...

 

[tomas]

There are two things being tested/adopted: EV in general, and specifically the Model S.

Regarding the Model S specifically, I think early adoption period is over. To me, it's as "production" as any other car I've owned. In other words, no more bugs than my last 2 cars (BMW 545i and Jaguar XF-S). I think the local service and sales people are (and will remain) a bit behind the curve because for the most part they were all just hired over the last 6 months, but the engineering of the car itself is pretty solid and standing up to volume. Amazing, given the timeframe!

Regarding EVs, we are all early adopters until battery range and charging infrastructure improve. When you've got to go online to see where the RV sites are every time you go to a destination over 250 miles round trip - just in case - you're an early adopter. The reason there's controversy about Model S is that Tesla has produced the first successful plug in, EV-only car. It's so great as a specific car, it's attracted people who - as many have pointed out in this thread - do not really understand what they're getting into on the EV front.

Which is fine! EV infrastructure will get sorted out because volumes will get high enough that drivers will demand it, and there will be money in providing it. Tesla is going to drive that volume, and in the process suffer a lot of the slings and arrows, but they've so far proven to be pretty resilient and thick-skinned.

 

[neroden]

in central bumfork Virginia (hi Todd Burch!), he is damn near an astronaut walking on the moon driving one of these things! :biggrin:

just take a look at the "random Model S sightings" thread. Californians see 5 per day at this point. I live in a wealthy suburb of Washington DC and I have only seen 3 on the road in my life. THREE! TOTAL!

I've only seen one other than mine! In Ithaca, I am definitely an early adopter. (And this is a city of Prius drivers.)

I agree with others that there are really multiple phases of "early adopter". We're past the "people who are willing to wait for a long time to get their car" early adopters, but we're still in the "people who are willing to order a car from the factory" early adopters. When Tesla starts selling in meaningful numbers to "I only buy out of inventory" people, you'll know you're past "early adopter".


In Geoffrey Moore's breakdown, we are past "innovator/techie" and well into "early adopter/visionary", but not really into "early majority/pragmatist" yet. Honestly, in Hawaii, nobody in their right mind would drive any new car except an electric car, the economics are simply too compelling, but there are still fairly small electric car sales there. That shows us that we aren't past the "early adopter" phase for electric cars yet.

At this point I get lots of curiosity about Model S, followed by "It's too expensive, I'm waiting for the next model". Therefore I'm not sure Model S will ever really cross past "early adopter/visionary." Tesla will, but not until they're producing a somewhat cheaper car. Interestingly, from what I can tell a lot of people are totally willing to consider a $60K car, even if they're driving much cheaper cars right now... $70-80K is just a step too far for most.

 

[Lloyd]

Here is the ultimate Early Adopter: From the Smithsonian

 

[RDoc]

I cannot imagine a lady driving such a car, there's no place of the footman! Who would carry her purchases from the store?

http://larzanderson.org/about/history/the-collection/1908-bailey-electric/