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It's not a portfolio that lasts 25 years. It's a portfolio that statistically has a _very_ high chance of lasting forever. It'd last 25 years if you invested it all in TIPS, indefinite if you invest in S&P500.

Maybe, but Bengen says otherwise. See my quote from his reddit post where he reduces the initial withdrawal rate based on how long you want the portfolio to last.

I say "maybe," because it's hard to predict the future. People are using over 100 years of data, but the world and world economy today is quite different than it was 100 years ago. Even big money managers like BlackRock, for instance, are concerned enough about the impact of Climate Change on the world that they're changing how they invest.
 
Maybe, but Bengen says otherwise. See my quote from his reddit post where he reduces the initial withdrawal rate based on how long you want the portfolio to last.

I say "maybe," because it's hard to predict the future. People are using over 100 years of data, but the world and world economy today is quite different than it was 100 years ago. Even big money managers like BlackRock, for instance, are concerned enough about the impact of Climate Change on the world that they're changing how they invest.
The Trinity Study And Portfolio Success Rates (Updated To 2018)

Guess it depends on your risk tolerance :)
 

Thanks for the link. And yes, it does matter in what you're invested. Even so, I think it's hard to put that into quantitative terms, for instance, that article says:
I know of at least one nationally syndicated radio show host who talks about an 8 percent withdrawal rate being safe with a 100 percent stock portfolio. The Trinity study does help clarify the wackiness of this notion. After twenty-five years, it’s a coin flip about whether any assets are left...

That's not really the way to put it. From the article's table, an 8% withdrawal rate on a 100% stock portfolio (I assume that's the S&P 500, but I couldn't tell for sure) had a 46% failure rate for 25 years. Even worse, 31% of the time that strategy failed to last 15 years. A person retiring at age 50 would have to go back to work at age 65 almost a third of the time!

Now, maybe you can do better than the S&P 500. Most people on this forum have - but how many potential young retirees have 20 years of investing history (surviving the dot com bust and the 2008 Great Recession) under their belts to know how they are likely to do in the next economic downturn?
 
Go see a financial advisor immediately rather than consulting an internet forum dedicated to the company in which your are extremely overweight.

I promise that is the best financial advice you will get. What you decide to do with it is up to you.

He´d tell me to sell most of my TSLA and diversify, no? Not ready to do that yet... But maybe I have a wrong imagination of financial advisors, maybe it wouldn´t hurt after all. I can still not listen to him ;)..
 
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He´d tell me to sell most of my TSLA and diversify, no? Not ready to do that yet... But maybe I have a wrong imagination of financial advisors, maybe it wouldn´t hurt after all. I can still not listen to him ;)..
Hypothetically if TSLA went to 0 would you still be able to put food on the table? Retire at 65 without it? Do the things in life that you still want to do?

If so, then you are fine but just know your risk is through the roof right now. Don't assume it will double or triple like in your original post. Always a possibility but it could also go back to $200/share, it was there only 8 months ago and the business proposition isn't any different now. Granted, they are executing now, but this was the plan all along.

Just be realistic about it and don't get caught up in the recent run-up.
 
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Thanks for everyone´s input, I guess I have a lot of reading to do :). Still working with nothing to pay off but my Model 3 and no family to feed, so I´d be ok even if TSLA goes to zero. One alternative to completely retiring early would also be trying to work fewer hours at first and see how it goes. Advantage would be I could adjust lifestyle and financially over a while and not jump into the cold water (maybe I´d get bored?)...
 
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The healthcare is what's killing me. It's not the only thing, but it'll be awhile before Medicare is available for me. I've got most of 10 years to go before age 60. The obvious healthcare I'll have available as a retiree of the company I work for right now is something like $25k/year. With the deductible, it's pretty much a guaranteed $30k/year out of pocket for medical, though on the plus side it doesn't go up from there all that much (woohoo - my wife and I can afford cancer!).

This thread, plus other thoughts I've been having, has led to scheduling a conversation with Fidelity for next week. It's not just having enough money to retire - it's also having it arranged so that I've got the month to money expenses covered for many years to come, and then transition into the addition of social security plus 401k/Roth IRA/ETC.. money sources. I figure all those details are well worth figuring out before I have the retirement party, rather than having the party and then figuring out I've missed something. :)
 
The healthcare premium will someday bankrupt this country, I think I read An article a while ago. So you got to work up to 65 until you are qualify Medicare unless you are very rich or has no
Money or no assets. TSLA can pay $30k a year for that but I felt it is ridiculous. Most people do not have that much mortgage ! Hey if the real short squeeze push TSLA to 1500, that will change my attitude about it. ;):D
 
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Hypothetically if TSLA went to 0 would you still be able to put food on the table? Retire at 65 without it? Do the things in life that you still want to do?

If so, then you are fine but just know your risk is through the roof right now. Don't assume it will double or triple like in your original post. Always a possibility but it could also go back to $200/share, it was there only 8 months ago and the business proposition isn't any different now. Granted, they are executing now, but this was the plan all along.

Just be realistic about it and don't get caught up in the recent run-up.

True all, BUT let us not forget, absent some macro or black swan event, for most of us TSLA is our least risky, long-term investment, IF you understand the risks posed by unchecked dumping of GHG's . . . and have a hope that we'll have a usable planet going forward.

Having said that, I'm sure as heck not retiring any time soon. Too risky, and I need the cash flow to buy more TSLA and BYND for a long time to come:)
 
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I'm not ready to start selling down my Tesla position for retirement income. So I am framing the objective this way:

Hold onto as many Tesla shares as possible while doing the following:

1) Diversify investments
2) Pay off mortgage and other debt
3) Cover living expenses

While I am working, I have an income to fund the three items plus buying more Tesla shares. In retirement, I would need to cover about half of this from Tesla shares. So before retirement, it makes sense to working on how do diversify portfolio and pay down debt. If I can't or don't want to do that, I'm probably not ready for retirement.

Obviously, one can sell shares to meet these objectives, but this reduces the number of shares one holds. So short of that, I think about writing covered calls on my Tesla shares. This, of course, puts some of my shares at risk, but for the time being I might just as well cover that with cash. So essentially, what I am doing is renting out my shares (as collateral against call options) and sacrificing some of the upside potential. In practice, I would sell covered calls and invest the proceeds. This raises capital for the duration of option. I could use this capital to diversify my portfolio, or I could reinvest in shares of Tesla so as to boost my total share holding. Eventually I do need to close the call. Depending on how deep in the money the options are I may need to sell some of the investments or Tesla shares. When I am writing covered calls I select strikes which are well out of the money so as to minimize the risk of losing shares, but this means generating less cash.

So I think of writing covered calls as a kind of virtual dividend derived from the value of my shares. I can elect how big my dividend is, but the bigger it is the more upside I am selling off and the more I erode my share position over time. But options do tend to lose value over time, so writing calls should erode my share position less than simply selling off a few shares at a time. Also note that as my shares grow in value over time, I will be able to write options with higher cash value.

Right now, I am not writing covered calls because I don't need the cash and I believe there is pretty strong upside potential to Tesla shares. But I am also not retired, so I have more latitude to allow my Tesla position to grow.
 
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Now, that doesn't mean going to a financial advisor and putting everything in CDs or bonds with the riskiest thing maybe being the S&P 500 (yes, I've heard of advisors doing that to clients). But, it does mean truly assessing how financially savvy you really are. You don't want to make big mistakes here.

CD's are TOO risky. Almost lost some when a bank failed back in 2009.
Bank was going to drop their FDIC insurance to save money. Sent out notice in mice type.
Luckily they failed before the 90 days notice expired.
Spread your CD's between multiple banks.
VERIFY FDIC monthly. It's on the web.
Don't go to the high interest ones.
One percent is a good safe rate.
My wife never lets me forget this. Reminds me at least once a month.

Thank God she doesn't know about my brokerage account.
 
CD's are TOO risky. Almost lost some when a bank failed back in 2009.
Bank was going to drop their FDIC insurance to save money. Sent out notice in mice type.
Luckily they failed before the 90 days notice expired.
Spread your CD's between multiple banks.
VERIFY FDIC monthly. It's on the web.
Don't go to the high interest ones.
One percent is a good safe rate.
My wife never lets me forget this. Reminds me at least once a month.

Thank God she doesn't know about my brokerage account.
Your secret is safe here on the internet. ;)
 
Some of the posts in this thread are scary. Visit www.bogleheads.org. Great resource.

spot on and if you are looking into a minimalist retirement look into Mr. Money Mustache which uses similar principles as the bogleheads as far as portfolio strategies and diversification but for people that live in low COLA areas and are not looking for rich living kind of retirement.
 
Can we form a TMC healthcare collective? If there was medicare for all I'd quit tomorrow.

I know some people retired with Obamacare and they say is good but again this are minimalist kind of people with very low yearly income required for living.... so their healthcare is fully subsidized or pay almost nothing. One of them had multiple brain and nerve surgeries all covered under the plan.
 
I know some people retired with Obamacare and they say is good but again this are minimalist kind of people with very low yearly income required for living.... so their healthcare is fully subsidized or pay almost nothing. One of them had multiple brain and nerve surgeries all covered under the plan.

Also you can move. New Zealand (had or has) a way for americans of moderate wealth to retire with health care. NOTE Looked at it in 2002. IE You could buy into their healthcare system.