All (especially
@tesla Pilot,
@EV forever,
@adiggs):
I may be in the position to finally retire (again) early next year, and I’m looking at some options for providing supplemental monthly income from my taxable U.S. E*TRADE portfolio – 90% TSLA and 10% combination of ARKG, ARKF and BPTRX. I’d like to solicit your ideas and suggestions about three strategies I’m considering.
Option 1: Selling shares at opportune times during the year. Margin account would be used to smooth the outflow if needed, but margin total kept near zero. These would all be long-term cap gains, so tax would be 15% for me. The yearly income I would need plus taxes would equal about
15% of my current portfolio. As long as TSLA SP grows >15%/year, this should last forever.
Pros: No debt (as long as margin amount stays small). No danger of margin calls.
Cons: Taxes. Reduction in shares slows portfolio growth potential.
Option 2: Use margin (current max on this account is 40% of portfolio value). Margin interest is 7.95%. I would simply use margin for income. The yearly income I would need plus interest on the margin would equal about
14% of my current portfolio. As long as TSLA SP grows >14%/year, this should last forever. However, the margin amount would continue to grow at a constant rate (but still stay within maximum allowable portfolio percentage).
Pros: No reduction of shares, so greater portfolio growth potential. No taxes. Margin debt not reflected in credit report.
Cons: Debt with moderately high interest rate. Potential for margin call if deep SP hit.
Option 3: Use Line of Credit. Portfolio is collateral, interest rate 3.84%. LOC would be used for income. The yearly income I would need plus interest on the loan would equal about
13% of my current portfolio. As long as TSLA SP grows > 13%/year, this should last forever. However, the loan amount would continue to grow at a constant rate (but still stay within the maximum allowable portfolio percentage).
Pros: No reduction of shares, so greater portfolio growth potential. No taxes. Moderately low interest rate (doubt this is tax deductible interest).
Cons: Debt. Potential for margin call if deep SP hit. Debt would presumably be reflected in credit report.
I have neglected the effect of inflation in all of these options.
Do these strategies make sense? Is one clearly superior? Have I missed any other options?
Thanks for your help.
Congrats on the imminent retirement! I appreciate the mention, and I'm going through a similar decision making process myself right now (retirement at end of Jan). It'll be a new world for me - no more paycheck after 30 years.
Two important things to know up front - I'm not a financial planner or anything else of the sort. I'm a consumer of those services. I have talked with 2 financial planners though as part of making my own plan. You get what you pay for. We all make our own decisions and experience our own consequences. Your mileage may vary. No warranty express or implied. Etc..
The other thing to know is that I'm not following those financial planners advice. I've learned a lot from them for sure. But the #1 piece of advice they have for me is to diversify away from TSLA. They're far too polite to say so, but I can tell they're thinking I'm a hair-on-fire risk taker that's gotten lucky. I have learned useful stuff from them, and found useful tools; I'm ready to learn from anybody, but I'm also willing (eager - I find this stuff interesting and fun) to chart my own path.
Among the 3 options, one idea for you in regards to option #2 is that IBKR apparently has great margin rates. Something like 1.5% these days. Puts Fidelity to shame, and has me thinking of talking to Fidelity about how to keep my business
. I'm not an Interactive Brokers customer though - all I really know is what I've read on their website, and read from others here that do use them. If your broker won't find a comparable rate for you, then an account transfer to IBKR might save you a pile of interest.
For me, at least at this time, option 1 makes sense to me (the mechanics). But I'm not emotionally ready and willing to sell shares periodically to raise living expenses, so it's not something I can do.. At some point I probably will, but today I'm not able to do that
. (I guess I just like those shares too much).
The other observation about all 3 options is that they are all dependent on a steadily rising share price. I don't know how long you've been a TSLA owner, but if you lived through the ~5 years of approximately stagnant share price (up and down from 180 to 280, and then 280 to 380), then you'll need to think about how that'll work for you if (when) it happens again.
Although my own expectation for TSLA by 2030 is as much as 10x today's price level, I also expect at least 1 and maybe 2 50% drops in the shares somewhere along the way. How will that work out for you if (for instance) the stock market finally realizes just how bad off many people are due to the pandemic, and it sells off like it's 2008, and TSLA drops down to $350 from here. Not because it's become a bad investment, but because when the whole market is selling off, it has this annoying tendency to take everything with it. Heck, with TSLA's PE, it's not unreasonable for the company to go down more than the overall market (woot! $200 here we come!)
My point isn't that these things WILL happen, but that (like me), you've got new needs from the portfolio. Income + Growth, instead of purely Growth.
And thus I have a few ideas for you; this isn't the universe of approaches, but it's some ideas to noodle on.
1) The first is an emergency fund, or in your case now, a sufficiently large pile of cash on hand that you don't need to react month to month for living expenses. One way I'm thinking about this is that I would like at least 1 year worth of cash on hand and maybe 2. Then if the market or TSLA moves badly against me, I've got at least a year (or 2) for it to recover. But I also have 8 years until the retirement accounts are fully available to me, so maybe I need to hold more cash.
2) Next is a combination of your 3 ideas. Use Option 1 (sell shares) when you feel the share price is at a local peak. Sell when the selling is particularly good, as it were. When the selling is not to your liking, then option 2 or 3 are mechanisms for raising cash while retaining all of your shares for a future sale. Then sell when the selling is good again, both for living expenses as well as maybe catching up on those loans.
3) Related to this combination of 3 ideas is a variation on Option 1. Covered calls are a pretty safe approach (you'll still need to learn about how they can go awry). The key here is that in Option 1, you're selling shares for living expenses. Well if you're willing to sell your shares today for $700, then surely you're willing to accept a $34 premium to sell the Jan '21 700 calls against however many shares you want to sell (multiples of 100). You sell the shares in a month if they are trading above $700, and you get the $34 premium either way (I think of this as pre-selling shares that I want to sell anyway).
The risks - the primary risk most identify is that the share price takes off on you. Say it's $1000 in mid-Jan and you've missed out on that extra $300 in growth. But that's not really a risk if you're going to sell the shares today - they're gone either way and you miss the growth either way. The main risk you'd be taking on is that you actually do need the money from selling the shares, but you don't get it if the shares trade down. If the option premium doesn't cover your living expenses on its own, then you might be selling the shares anyway in a month, but now you're getting $600 and you've lost $66 ($100 lower share price, but $34 premium collected).
4) The last idea is something I've begun doing this summer, and plan to continue for the indefinite future. I've found that I can sell options against the portfolio (both covered calls, and cash secured puts). Use the shares and cash with a dividend mindset to sell options.
There are all sorts of dangers with this idea, and if you haven't traded options before (or don't find the idea of learning about how this works appealing),
then that's a good hint that you don't even want to start down this path. My own target is somewhere around 1% per month which has seemed achievable so far; maybe I can do better than 1%, but I don't really need to do better either (which means I can take on even less risk).
Congratulations again!