Thank you for the feedback. I think the sample size is conclusive enough.
Tesla sold the majority of Model 3's at $55,000. (Base + LR + PUP + Color + EAP)
My thesis is that at the $49K base, people will elect for the $5K software package.
Model 3 reservationists who were militant
on the YOU PROMISED ELON AND TESLA, YOU LIARS WHERE IS MY $27,500 CAR I EARNED. I STOOD IN LINE FOR TWO HOURS.
Those who parroted $35K over and over and over
I am 100% certain would not have put in the $5K for the EAP package.
How healthy would it have been for Tesla to equip all those cars with PX2 Drive Units, 8 cameras etc if those customers who wanted the rock bottom price was not going to pay for the cost of them?
Now when it comes down to it, did Tesla make a promise of a $35K car? It has been implied yes, and I believe they will produce the $35k
car. Just not now, for Tesla to survive, you are just going to need to wait
They will do it when
1 - They sell all the highest margin cars they can first.
2 - When the run rate is sufficient to leverage economy of scale driving down the cost of each Model 3.
3 - When the PX2 drive unit/GPUs get cheap enough to where a 'partial uptake' on EAP adoption isnt going to kill them.
From option adoption:
49K cars turn into 55K cars.
60K cars turn into 70K cars.
70K cars turn into 80K cars.
27.5K cars stay 27.5K cars.
It is an uncomfortable and inconvenient truth, but we should stop being self centered and recognize Tesla is doing what it needs to do to be sustainable for the long term. Handing out 35K cars from the get go when production is limited only ensures those cars won't have anyone to service them 5 years from now.
I'm sure our resident TSLA bull @ValueAnalyst