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Economic Trade-Offs to Building Model 3

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Your lines seem to be rather arbitrary -- why is the BMW line at the rear of the wheel well, but the Tesla line is several inches to the rear of the wheel well?


You have been around here long enough to make this question rather disingenuous. You know that they have been arranging part suppliers, building an assembly line, building a battery factory, inverter line, and skateboard line. Others have criticizing them for going too fast --- if its not one thing its another.
I have a company. I have a good idea on how "long" this kind of thing takes. Tesla hired tons of geniuses concerning manufacturing and design and engineering from everywhere about 14 months ago. Is that not a fact?

Tesla on a hiring spree in the Bay Area
Tesla Hires Audi Assembly Veteran as Musk Seeks Output Surge
Tesla (TSLA) creates new Chief Accounting Officer role, hires SunPower’s top controller
Tesla Hires Experienced Solar Industry Executive -- The Motley Fool
Tesla hires a longtime Audi exec to oversee its Model 3 production
Tesla keeps hiring more ex-Apple employees to help with autonomous car design
Tesla needs better interiors, hires Volvo’s head of interiors to help

All I'm asking is what have these great guys been doing? Tesla did the right thing by hiring over 700 years of experience worth of successful people last year. I can certainly speculate that they have been getting suppliers and production line stuff together. That's fine. And this is not a big deal to me......I'm just casually asking because many of the people Tesla pulled away from other vendors were praised for getting things done in record time. For instance the Chief of production at Audi put the production line for the A4 together in 2.6 months from scratch with an unlimited budget and received all kinds of awards and became known multiple times as Mr. Production in the business. Pencils were down on the alpha Model 3 when he was hired....so design was done. I thought it was an excellent hire by Tesla. For those who watch USA basketball....this team Tesla put together is far more talented than the Golden State Warriors and are by far the highest paid in the automotive industry. Great recruiting Tesla.
 
I have a company. I have a good idea on how "long" this kind of thing takes. Tesla hired tons of geniuses concerning manufacturing and design and engineering from everywhere about 14 months ago. Is that not a fact?

Tesla on a hiring spree in the Bay Area
Tesla Hires Audi Assembly Veteran as Musk Seeks Output Surge
Tesla (TSLA) creates new Chief Accounting Officer role, hires SunPower’s top controller
Tesla Hires Experienced Solar Industry Executive -- The Motley Fool
Tesla hires a longtime Audi exec to oversee its Model 3 production
Tesla keeps hiring more ex-Apple employees to help with autonomous car design
Tesla needs better interiors, hires Volvo’s head of interiors to help

All I'm asking is what have these great guys been doing? Tesla did the right thing by hiring over 700 years of experience worth of successful people last year. I can certainly speculate that they have been getting suppliers and production line stuff together. That's fine. And this is not a big deal to me......I'm just casually asking because many of the people Tesla pulled away from other vendors were praised for getting things done in record time. For instance the Chief of production at Audi put the production line for the A4 together in 2.6 months from scratch with an unlimited budget and received all kinds of awards and became known multiple times as Mr. Production in the business. Pencils were down on the alpha Model 3 when he was hired....so design was done. I thought it was an excellent hire by Tesla. For those who watch USA basketball....this team Tesla put together is far more talented than the Golden State Warriors and are by far the highest paid in the automotive industry. Great recruiting Tesla.
Perhaps working on Model S and X updates?

Dan
 
When you ask why can't Tesla just add this or make this better or this isn't luxurious enough. You need to understand this one thing that controls all decisions. Profitability. If the model 3 is not profitable Tesla ceases to exist 6 months after it falls to show profitability, unless a White Knight comes in to save it. Nothing else matters. There is no room for error with a car that's half the price of the model S. If it does not cost half as much to make, Tesla has a serious nay fatal issue. That means making some sacrifices and much simpler manufacturing requirements.

People keep comparing this car to 3-series but the base model 3 is really competitive all the way down to the level of a base Camry model when you factor residual value and TCO.

Demand would suggest that all the things that are being pointed out here are not an issue, but profitability will always guide the decisions on the model 3.
 
There is an integral on that profitability thing.

As an investor, I would ask for variable cost profitability on the 3 by Q1 2018. Then look for crossover and market life on the design and technologies.

Does market life extend far enough past crossover to deliver an acceptable return?

What the Tesla team is working on now is likely making the 3 good enough to have a long market life, and sell well, even after the subsidies have expired. From what I can tell they are doing that, ... but luxury cars are quiet (rode in a 12 year old Lexus yesterday). If they beat the C Class on background noise out of the gate, they have a good shot at momentum.

Quiet cars create consensus. Loud cars create discord.
 
When you ask why can't Tesla just add this or make this better or this isn't luxurious enough. You need to understand this one thing that controls all decisions. Profitability. If the model 3 is not profitable Tesla ceases to exist 6 months after it falls to show profitability, unless a White Knight comes in to save it. Nothing else matters. There is no room for error with a car that's half the price of the model S. If it does not cost half as much to make, Tesla has a serious nay fatal issue. That means making some sacrifices and much simpler manufacturing requirements.

People keep comparing this car to 3-series but the base model 3 is really competitive all the way down to the level of a base Camry model when you factor residual value and TCO.

Demand would suggest that all the things that are being pointed out here are not an issue, but profitability will always guide the decisions on the model 3.
That's what margin is.

There are tons of threads and comments here about profit margin. I think most folks understand that.
 
I have a company. I have a good idea on how "long" this kind of thing takes.
No, you really, really don't.

And you've asked this question about a dozen times. Why do you ignore the answers you receive? Are they not going into enough detail for you to believe them? Is it just a rhetorical question? I don't believe you're a troll, but your insistence that Tesla should be able to push this car out within months (weeks? days?) of the first reveal is confounding. It's driving me batty!

XaOYlO1y4uS3iCQLaAw6qpcE6piKg-K6udYgeobNR_HzSUqHHpElhgLL43w3aFjBmBTNSqS4_azvboHEynOOir2LNSIPnCq7H20KG4tkL8fXW8KBUJJ2O3_ZjevCSL9v3xTLAANCNTJ8W02heie737qYsK2e0pDqoxW3c36tYNfYYMrLxpL6D0mDyJAwW_5ionT9tRkcqe5JCo98DPoWsdn4GfLDPJpa2R0Cl6-BJk6pkOP8UCSl2h2bX44RByS49KodhisfxDz3W50GS3kua2fngrPiRviQxiJAv48T1nvNGDKSwxn4gk-pstA4ECHh30RX_5OOvbA7bu4kIDm47Yytgh_uL1xP0dEHqQ3jj2jDRS4lewPGbjlHxg6H7sedbDfMVBs3Zwr4WkmEE_VKiMPnTK2TZOaeqRfEDEF9JtrUFPFq2FirJtsQ7r2DwawnohHe6IfpNgP87yfcAGTjur8_BCsa51bIcYfkCTTiTZW3GX4qlAdSW8xfpIF5DWbN-ckCYXLPiTMuEMhiaiAzSPxV5H9h3OP6eOGrRWI-WKVKR5iOZg3-D5pGW-XuBvIqmHdVUrNhAf7LYMlb1YG-dTkAvvSC7RX1inZLssDraYD68dRG6Q=w459-h195-no
 
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No, you really, really don't.

And you've asked this question about a dozen times. Why do you ignore the answers you receive? Are they not going into enough detail for you to believe them? Is it just a rhetorical question? I don't believe you're a troll, but your insistence that Tesla should be able to push this car out within months (weeks? days?) of the first reveal is confounding. It's driving me batty!

XaOYlO1y4uS3iCQLaAw6qpcE6piKg-K6udYgeobNR_HzSUqHHpElhgLL43w3aFjBmBTNSqS4_azvboHEynOOir2LNSIPnCq7H20KG4tkL8fXW8KBUJJ2O3_ZjevCSL9v3xTLAANCNTJ8W02heie737qYsK2e0pDqoxW3c36tYNfYYMrLxpL6D0mDyJAwW_5ionT9tRkcqe5JCo98DPoWsdn4GfLDPJpa2R0Cl6-BJk6pkOP8UCSl2h2bX44RByS49KodhisfxDz3W50GS3kua2fngrPiRviQxiJAv48T1nvNGDKSwxn4gk-pstA4ECHh30RX_5OOvbA7bu4kIDm47Yytgh_uL1xP0dEHqQ3jj2jDRS4lewPGbjlHxg6H7sedbDfMVBs3Zwr4WkmEE_VKiMPnTK2TZOaeqRfEDEF9JtrUFPFq2FirJtsQ7r2DwawnohHe6IfpNgP87yfcAGTjur8_BCsa51bIcYfkCTTiTZW3GX4qlAdSW8xfpIF5DWbN-ckCYXLPiTMuEMhiaiAzSPxV5H9h3OP6eOGrRWI-WKVKR5iOZg3-D5pGW-XuBvIqmHdVUrNhAf7LYMlb1YG-dTkAvvSC7RX1inZLssDraYD68dRG6Q=w459-h195-no
Yes, Yes,....I really do.

I receive responses not answers. I provide links and such. I'm hoping for links/facts and such in return....but nope.... just a lot of "maybe's" and videos with people cursing in them. lol.

It really does not matter to me if you think I'm a troll or not. You have a choice to read or not to read my posts.
 
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Yes, Yes,....I really do.

I receive responses not answers. I provide links and such. I'm hoping for links/facts and such in return....but nope.... just a lot of "maybe's" and videos with people cursing in them. lol.

It really does not matter to me if you think I'm a troll or not. You have a choice to read or not to read my posts.

This is going to sound really snarky and I don't mean it that way but...

Why does Tesla have to tell you or anyone else what their employees are doing? It's their business what responsibilities they assign to individuals based on what their needs and wants might be. It seems that you (and many others) are the ones that are making assumptions as to what these people should or shouldn't be working on. If Tesla wants to hire Mickey Mouse to design interiors that's up to them. Ultimately the quality of what they market will be born out in their sales. With half a million reservations I think so far people are pretty excited.

Dan
 
This is going to sound really snarky and I don't mean it that way but...

Why does Tesla have to tell you or anyone else what their employees are doing? It's their business what responsibilities they assign to individuals based on what their needs and wants might be. It seems that you (and many others) are the ones that are making assumptions as to what these people should or shouldn't be working on. If Tesla wants to hire Mickey Mouse to design interiors that's up to them. Ultimately the quality of what they market will be born out in their sales. With half a million reservations I think so far people are pretty excited.

Dan
I'm only asking. Its a question. I'm not even asking as a shareholder. Just a question.

What has Tesla been doing for 14 months ( with all of the super millionaire gurus and SME's they hired over a year ago)? If I asked Tesla....sure....they can say whatever they want or nothing at all. For example: Elon was just asked if he was willing to tell them how many Model 3 reservations were made so far... Elon said....No. I'm not going to tell you. That's fine with me, good answer. That doesn't make the question a bad one.

I'm asking the people in this forum if they know what Tesla has been doing. Folks reply " maybe they are doing this......maybe they have been doing that". That's fine. I don't know why that question elicits such disdain and such, but oh well. Its just a question. I'm not saying that anyone owes me anything.
 
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The people trying to explain why Tesla is able to manufacture a Model 3 much cheaper than a Bolt have an uncomfortable resemblance to the the people of a year ago who explained how Tesla is able to make an advanced spaceship that blows the Model 'S' out of the water yet only costs $35k.

In Elon we trust, so I figure the reality will be less than magic and better than any other manufacturer can manage.
 
You have a WHOLE THREAD dedicated to this question.
You received several _answers_ within that thread. Do you not believe that the answers are correct or true?
I don't want to ignore you. I just find it frustrating that we can't seem to answer this question to your satisfaction, and at this point I'm asking.... why is that?
I've dropped looking for an answer. I haven't responded since I posted the hiring links. I've let it go.

When I started my business a read a ton of books and took many courses...one of which was of the Audi genius that Audi hired to run the entire A4 product. In short he was told ....... you are solely responsible for getting this car out there an turn around this failing line of cars. To which he responded....give me 2 months. Audi gave him billions upon billions of dollars to get it done and he cracked the whip and got it done in 2.5 months. A brand new car that was only a concept....and in 2.5 months having A4's rolling off the brand new production line to the tune of one of the most successful models Audi sells today. He and everyone he initially hired (169 people ) worked 20 hour days 7 days a week and in 1 month were pencils down with all vendors in place /permits approved / crash tests completed /parts for cars and the production line. Very few people could figure out how he did it. Tesla hired this same guy over a year ago. So then I asked. What has Tesla being doing? They have some absolute geniuses working for them that have some astounding / award winning business reputations and notoriety.

I was just hoping that there might be someone here in the forum that was equally excited about business and the amazing varying personality of successful business such as SouthWest airlines....McDonalds.....Tesla......

I've dropped it. I won't ask anymore.
 
I don't know why that question elicits such disdain and such, but oh well. Its just a question. I'm not saying that anyone owes me anything.
Because you ask it every month and each month you get the same answers. The reason all you get is "maybe this" and "probably that" is because no one here actually works for Tesla so no one here can tell you exactly what they are doing. If you are not satisfies with the answers you're getting then you need to go ask the question to someone that might be able to give you a real answer. If those people choose not to give you one then you should really just let it go and trust that they are doing everything they can to get the car out there as fast as they can. You either believe that or you don't, repeatedly asking the question in such a way that it seems like you're just looking for someone to validate your negativism is sort of silly.
 
Because you ask it every month and each month you get the same answers. The reason all you get is "maybe this" and "probably that" is because no one here actually works for Tesla so no one here can tell you exactly what they are doing. If you are not satisfies with the answers you're getting then you need to go ask the question to someone that might be able to give you a real answer. If those people choose not to give you one then you should really just let it go and trust that they are doing everything they can to get the car out there as fast as they can. You either believe that or you don't, repeatedly asking the question in such a way that it seems like you're just looking for someone to validate your negativism is sort of silly.
Validate my negativism? LOL That's a good one.
 
Technically they aren't selling it as a loss because they are getting ZEV credits that are worth ~$10k for each Bolt sold in a CARB state to offset the actual loss of selling the vehicle. (Which allows them to keep selling their very profitable large trucks/SUVs.)
That $10k CARB savings is a moving target based on the cost of buying a ZEV credit on the secondary market. You can bet that if the Model 3 is successful, one of the unintended side-effects will be disappearance of compliance cars.
 
Validate my negativism? LOL That's a good one.
Yes it is isn't it? Perfectly suitable. Do you think that they wouldn't have done things faster they could? There were many criticisms that they couldn't get the supply chain set up in a year. Also evidence from the press manufacturer that one year was pushing it. Remember this is the design of the car, the design of multiple lines, supply chain, permits for expansion of Fremont, building and commisioning GF1 ...

Its not the simple question, but your implication thay they are spinning their tires. They are cutting the usual concept to production time in half and most of the other auto manufacturers are incredulous. Not so you.
 
I've dropped looking for an answer. I haven't responded since I posted the hiring links. I've let it go.

When I started my business a read a ton of books and took many courses...one of which was of the Audi genius that Audi hired to run the entire A4 product. In short he was told ....... you are solely responsible for getting this car out there an turn around this failing line of cars. To which he responded....give me 2 months. Audi gave him billions upon billions of dollars to get it done and he cracked the whip and got it done in 2.5 months. A brand new car that was only a concept....and in 2.5 months having A4's rolling off the brand new production line to the tune of one of the most successful models Audi sells today. He and everyone he initially hired (169 people ) worked 20 hour days 7 days a week and in 1 month were pencils down with all vendors in place /permits approved / crash tests completed /parts for cars and the production line. Very few people could figure out how he did it. Tesla hired this same guy over a year ago. So then I asked. What has Tesla being doing? They have some absolute geniuses working for them that have some astounding / award winning business reputations and notoriety.

I was just hoping that there might be someone here in the forum that was equally excited about business and the amazing varying personality of successful business such as SouthWest airlines....McDonalds.....Tesla......

I've dropped it. I won't ask anymore.

Where did you read about this effort on the Audi A4? Is there a specific book that describes this? I would actually really like to read about it.

Call me skeptical that they went from concept to production in 2.5 months. Is that really the reality of where they were at?
I was under the impression that many industry analysts are actually saying the Tesla's timeframe on the 3 is much faster than typical industry norm, and a lot of people think it is actually too fast to properly fully test and validate the design.

Now you think the already short 18 months should go to 3? I just don't get it.
 
Yes it is isn't it? Perfectly suitable. Do you think that they wouldn't have done things faster they could? There were many criticisms that they couldn't get the supply chain set up in a year. Also evidence from the press manufacturer that one year was pushing it. Remember this is the design of the car, the design of multiple lines, supply chain, permits for expansion of Fremont, building and commisioning GF1 ...

Its not the simple question, but your implication thay they are spinning their tires. They are cutting the usual concept to production time in half and most of the other auto manufacturers are incredulous. Not so you.

I know this is a forum where the majority of the comments uplift Tesla, however if there is a question that questions Tesla........why is that frowned upon? I'm not insulting any members of the forum with the question.

Do I think Tesla would do things faster if they could? That's the question that I'm asking. Is the only answer that is acceptable in this forum "yes".... no matter what?
 
Where did you read about this effort on the Audi A4? Is there a specific book that describes this? I would actually really like to read about it.

Call me skeptical that they went from concept to production in 2.5 months. Is that really the reality of where they were at?
I was under the impression that many industry analysts are actually saying the Tesla's timeframe on the 3 is much faster than typical industry norm, and a lot of people think it is actually too fast to properly fully test and validate the design.

Now you think the already short 18 months should go to 3? I just don't get it.
All I was asking is. What has Tesla been doing. If your answer is "everything they need to". fine.
Again I asked this because one of Tesla's dozens of automotive / production geniuses that they hired set the bar on his efforts and work at another company - as we learned in class here at Northwestern University.

As this one question has caused so much of a stir.....lets just drop it. I'll make all comments in an optimistic approving manner.