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Effect of raising capital at current near all time high stock prices.

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IMO Tesla should reiterate it does not need a capital raise.

Then if we are above $250 after the Q1 2017 earnings call then do a significant raise to establish a rainy day fund like GM and Ford's ~$25B piggy bank just in case of a recession.

And I do think it would be seen as a net positive by the market.
 
From my general experience with secondary offerings, I'd say it depends how large it is. Market doesn't blink at small secondary offerings and they tend to have very little effect. A large offering would be considered dilutive and cause a drop.

If it's low-interest long-term corporate bonds it would probably be viewed as a positive, indicating that Tesla has better access to financing.
High-interest corporate bonds would be viewed as a negative, indicating that Tesla has worse access to financing.
 
I would build a war chest as deep as is physically possible for the battle ahead. If you think dealing with Trump and some FUD in in the news are the last shots fired by a century of global wealth creation, you are sorely mistaken. The Saudi royal family and Putin aren't just going to drift off into irrelevance.

Drop hints of Gigafactory 2&3, detail vague production plans for the "final piece" <$25k sedan, then raise a ton of cash in the spring.