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Effect of the 2016 US presidential election on Tesla Motors

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by 9837264723849, May 26, 2016.

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How will this election impact Tesla's future?

Poll closed Aug 26, 2016.
  1. A great deal

    7.9%
  2. A fair amout

    26.3%
  3. Not much

    42.1%
  4. Not at all

    21.1%
  5. No opinion

    2.6%
  1. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    What could be the impact of the US presidential election on Tesla? As a European citizen, my opinion isn't well informed on the issues the company could face in the coming months.

    How important are the energy transition, electric vehicles, and Tesla Motors' business in this election? What are the positions of each candidate regarding these topics, such as renewable energy, tax credits, direct sales or EV infrastructure?

    Is the US political media rather supportive or critical of the company at this time?
     
  2. MSullivan

    MSullivan Member

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    The President can try and guide legislation through the Congress but he/she isn't a dictator. The Congress is the one that passes legislation.
    I thought for sure this Congress would allow the solar and EV subsidies to die at the end of this year. They didn't, without President Obama's getting involved (if he had they would have probably said "NO!") they extended them.
    Luckily green technology spans political parties. States like Texas are becoming the Saudi Arabia of wind. Thus their conservative representatives are supporters of these subsidies.
    Having said that, two states with huge solar potential (Nevada and Arizona), have rolled back incentives in their states.
    Other states have slapped extra fees on electric vehicles.
    Fifty states and fifty different views on things.
     
  3. Vitold

    Vitold Member

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    Nowadays President can do a lot throug executive action:

    FACT SHEET: President Obama Announces New Actions to Bring Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency to Households across the Country

    Therefore, it matters quite a bit if we have Republican or Democrat as POTUS.
     
  4. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    What caused the interest in electric cars to peak in April-July 2008, as measured by Google Trends? Was it the campaign for the presidential election, the new tax credits for PHEV, the first Roadster deliveries, the upcoming Volt/Model S?

    Screen Shot 2016-05-26 at 14.06.25.png
     
    • Informative x 1
  5. MSullivan

    MSullivan Member

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    Thanks for the link.
    While those are admirable most executive actions are fairly limited. For example an executive action can state federal contractors are required to protect LGBT rights. Getting a private company to do so requires the legislative branch and ultimately the signature of the president.
    There is no denying that one party believes in science and thus that climate change is real and one party does not. That makes it obvious that presidential candidate would be less hospitable to green energy and EV's.
    But a new president could not, with the stroke of a pen, cancel the $7500 EV credit.
     
  6. Vitold

    Vitold Member

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    Don't forget EPA pollution regulations, fuel economy standards, offshore and arctic drilling decisions, Keystone XL pipeline. It's hard to dismiss above as not important for green energy.
     
  7. cpa

    cpa Member

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    What gets overlooked sometimes is the fact that a new president essentially will "clean house" with executive-appointed leaders of all government agencies and divisions. Top-level bureaucrats return to the private sector and new ones assume the roles. The rank-and-file stay on their jobs.

    Tesla needs to be able to sell and service their cars in all 50 states. We are all aware of the states who deny or severely restrict Tesla's ability to sell and/or service their cars. We have seen the Federal Trade Commission's view on the various state laws that implement and enforce these restrictions.

    So, if there are new executives at the Department of Justice and/or Federal Trade Commission that believe that these state laws could be unconstitutional there might be the impetus to litigate or else persuade the state legislatures to repeal these prohibitions.

    Or, it could just be business as usual.
     
  8. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    Tesla is currently (a) anticipating the elimination of the tax credit for EVs, (b) not really benefiting much from any other federal policies whatsoever. There is therefore basically no downside possible from the federal election. The best possible scenario is that the federal government clears out some of the roadblocks which have been thrown up at the state level, but I consider this fairly unlikely, and even if it does happen it will happen slowly, slowly enough to have very little impact on Tesla's overall trajectory. The worst possible scenario is that the federal government removes state-level positive actions (like, for instance, overturning California's ZEV rules or California's CAFE standards) but that seems even less likely.
     
  9. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Huh. I was thinking the Volt was a main factor, but the timing doesn't match up - The concept car was shown in January 2007, and the production one in September 2008.

    The Roadster was first shown in November 2006. Series production started in March 2008, with the first 27 delivered by September according to Wikipedia. Reviews started appearing in February 2008. The famous Top Gear episode was apparently first aired in December 2008.

    On the incentive side, apparently the EV tax credit was in the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 that was introduced in May 2008 and passed in separate versions by house and senate in May and September, then combined with the 2008 emergency economic stabilization act and signed in October 2008.

    It looks like Tesla's original Model S press release fits the timing fairly well - June 30, 2008 - but it's a simple press release (see here), with no car to show and very little information (I think the first time anyone saw the car was March 2009.)

    The Leaf wasn't displayed until July 2009 (as the EV11 prototype.)

    I'm not really coming up with a good explanation.
     
    • Helpful x 1
  10. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    This lines up with those dates:
    historical-gas-prices.jpg
     
    • Like x 1
  11. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    • Informative x 1
  12. dc_h

    dc_h Member

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    Trump seems like he could hurt Tesla, and it seems highly likely he will win. That said, approving Keystone with oil under $80 a barrel is irrelevant. Other fossil fuel incentives could hurt, but show the value in speeding model 3 production. Hitting stride and blowing past the 200,000 mark takes incentives out of play. Long term Tesla is improving battery productivity by about 15% a year. Increased density and reducing mfg costs should continue for the next decade at that 15% rate. ICE manufacturers can hit 5% at best. If Tesla can profitabily compete with BMW with their M3, policy no longer matters, it's only execution from that point. Counter environmental initiatives may also encourage many to put up their own cash to make personal policy decisions, which is optimal.
     
  13. Chuq

    Chuq Member

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    [Warning: Non-American viewpoint]

    The odd thing about Trump (well, apart from everything)... but specifically, with Tesla - is that why would he be against an American company making American cars that use American produced energy? Surely that would "Make America Great Again"?

    I mean, clearly a lot of what he says involves no brain function, but still...
     
    • Like x 1
  14. dc_h

    dc_h Member

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    And what is rational about American politics?
     
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  15. Chuq

    Chuq Member

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    • Like x 1
  16. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    The poor choice of candidates makes me spend much more time on this forum!:(
     
  17. EVie'sDad

    EVie'sDad Member

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  18. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Agree! I keep telling my wife the same thing, but she insists on watching TV coverage of the candidates and then fumes about it.
     
  19. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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  20. EVie'sDad

    EVie'sDad Member

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    #20 EVie'sDad, May 28, 2016
    Last edited: May 28, 2016
    Actually late this evening the Trump camp reversed that statement and will only debate the first place candidate, Sanders in frustration called trump a bully and asked him what he was afraid of. lol

    Trump says he will not debate Sanders - CNNPolitics.com
     

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