The EIA has just published its 2020 Annual Energy Outlook.
You can always find the latest at:
Annual Energy Outlook
Discuss.
You can always find the latest at:
Annual Energy Outlook
Discuss.
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EIA Annual Energy Outlook
- Thread starter ItsNotAboutTheMoney
- Start date
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
The EIA has just published its 2020 Annual Energy Outlook.
You can always find the latest at:
Annual Energy Outlook
Discuss.
EIA.... LOL
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf
Page 15
Tariffs on PV modules imported into the United States started at 30% in January 2018, but they have declined to 20% in January 2020 and are expected to decline to 15% in 2021 and expire completely after 2021. During 2018 and 2019, increases in U.S. domestic module prices were, to an extent, offset by declines in global module prices. This price decline was in response to reductions in China’s domestic PV installation targets and subsequent release of module inventories for global markets. Although global PV module prices showed signs of stabilizing in 2019, the net price impact of the tariffs versus the surplus of modules is uncertain over the short-term forecast.
Page 15
Tariffs on PV modules imported into the United States started at 30% in January 2018, but they have declined to 20% in January 2020 and are expected to decline to 15% in 2021 and expire completely after 2021. During 2018 and 2019, increases in U.S. domestic module prices were, to an extent, offset by declines in global module prices. This price decline was in response to reductions in China’s domestic PV installation targets and subsequent release of module inventories for global markets. Although global PV module prices showed signs of stabilizing in 2019, the net price impact of the tariffs versus the surplus of modules is uncertain over the short-term forecast.
Workplace charging could end up being a popular benefit for employers to provide, if cheap solar leads to cheap daytime electricity. Windy locations should easily be able to use smart charging to soak up excess nighttime generation.
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I missed it, but the EIA released it's Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost report on February 21st.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source
Assembled from the various tables for 2022 and 2025:
Estimated unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Electricity. $/MWh. Wgt is capacity-weighted average based on the various regions. Unwgt is the unweighted average of the regions.
This is the first time that the EIA's projections have had unsubsidized costs of wind and solar below CCGT. The numbers make it clear that natural gas and renewables will replace coal and nuclear, and then there will be an increasing trend toward renewable generation.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source
Assembled from the various tables for 2022 and 2025:
Estimated unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Electricity. $/MWh. Wgt is capacity-weighted average based on the various regions. Unwgt is the unweighted average of the regions.
| Plant type | 2022 Wgt | 2022 Unwgt | 2022 Min | 2022 Max | 2025 Wgt | 2025 Unwgt | 2025 Min | 2025 Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra-supercritical coal | . | . | . | . | . | 76.44 | 65.10 | 91.27 |
| Combined cycle | 33.53 | 36.27 | 31.25 | 45.06 | 36.61 | 38.07 | 33.35 | 45.31 |
| Combustion turbine | 64.19 | 62.81 | 55.23 | 73.61 | 68.71 | 66.62 | 58.48 | 81.37 |
| Advanced nuclear | . | . | . | . | . | 81.65 | 71.90 | 92.04 |
| Geothermal | . | . | . | . | 37.47 | 37.47 | 35.13 | 39.60 |
| Wind, onshore | 36.65 | 38.33 | 28.25 | 64.03 | 34.10 | 39.95 | 28.72 | 62.72 |
| Wind, offshore | . | . | . | . | 115.04 | 122.25 | 102.68 | 155.55 |
| Solar photovoltaic | 37.44 | 38.57 | 32.13 | 51.97 | 32.80 | 35.74 | 29.75 | 48.09 |
| Hydroelectric | . | . | . | . | 39.54 | 52.79 | 35.37 | 63.24 |
This is the first time that the EIA's projections have had unsubsidized costs of wind and solar below CCGT. The numbers make it clear that natural gas and renewables will replace coal and nuclear, and then there will be an increasing trend toward renewable generation.
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EIA does a decent job summarizing recent developments but its record for predicting the future of renewables would be pure comedy if it did not so tragically encourage overinvestment in fossil fuels by systematically underestimating the massive growth and rapidly falling costs for renewables.
Down below is an excellent chart that summarizes their past predictions for solar PV additions.
They have a truly horrible forecasting record whose main purpose and effect is to inflate investment in fossil fuels.
AukeHoekstra on Twitter
Down below is an excellent chart that summarizes their past predictions for solar PV additions.
They have a truly horrible forecasting record whose main purpose and effect is to inflate investment in fossil fuels.
AukeHoekstra on Twitter
EIA does a decent job summarizing recent developments but its record for predicting the future of renewables would be pure comedy if it did not so tragically encourage overinvestment in fossil fuels by systematically underestimating the massive growth and rapidly falling costs for renewables.
Down below is an excellent chart that summarizes their past predictions for solar PV additions.
They have a truly horrible forecasting record whose main purpose and effect is to inflate investment in fossil fuels.
AukeHoekstra on Twitter
EIA (US Energy Information Administration) != IEA (International Energy Agency).
Maybe I need to change my sig.
Done.
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EIA (US Energy Information Administration) != IEA (International Energy Agency).
Maybe I need to change my sig.
I plead temporary dyslexia.
But EIA is just as bad as IEA, as mentioned in the Twitter feed linked in my last post.
Like IEA, EIA's renewable energy forecasts are completely useless.
AukeHoekstra on Twitter
2021 Outlook is out, along with the Levelized Cost estimates.
This year they have separated out solar photovoltaic into "solar, standalone" and "solar, hybrid", where "solar, hybrid" means it has 4 hours of battery storage.
Also of note is the significant change in assumed capacity factor of Combustion Turbine, to a much lower value. That has contributed to a massive increase in estimated LCOE.
LCOE:
Capacity factors:
This year they have separated out solar photovoltaic into "solar, standalone" and "solar, hybrid", where "solar, hybrid" means it has 4 hours of battery storage.
Also of note is the significant change in assumed capacity factor of Combustion Turbine, to a much lower value. That has contributed to a massive increase in estimated LCOE.
LCOE:
| Plant type | 2023 Wgt | 2023 Unwgt | 2023 Min | 2023 Max | 2026 Wgt | 2026 Unwgt | 2026 Min | 2026 Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra-supercritical coal | . | . | . | . | . | 72.78 | 64.98 | 88.45 |
| Combined cycle | 33.21 | 34.78 | 29.17 | 43.47 | 34.51 | 37.11 | 31.67 | 44.68 |
| Combustion turbine | 175.28 | 177.75 | 154.68 | 220.86 | 199.01 | 194.87 | 170.79 | 244.71 |
| Advanced nuclear | . | . | . | . | . | 69.39 | 64.82 | 78.15 |
| Geothermal | . | . | . | . | 36.02 | 36.40 | 33.41 | 39.55 |
| Biomass | . | . | . | . | 36.02 | 89.21 | . | 130.97 |
| Battery Storage | 121.85 | 117.59 | 106.63 | 127.64 | 36.02 | 119.84 | 121.84 | 131.42 |
| Wind, onshore | 30.44 | 33.53 | 25.09 | 56.12 | 31.45 | 36.93 | 26.33 | 56.94 |
| Wind, offshore | . | . | . | . | 115.04 | 120.52 | 97.52 | 149.53 |
| Solar, standalone | 30.63 | 33.13 | 27.65 | 44.46 | 31.30 | 32.78 | 27.28 | 43.90 |
| Solar, hybrid | . | 48.16 | 40.10 | 62.97 | 45.13 | 47.67 | 39.54 | 62.11 |
| Hydroelectric | . | . | . | . | . | 55.26 | 41.92 | 70.60 |
Capacity factors:
| Type | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Ultra-supercritical coal | . | 85 |
| Combined cycle | 87 | 87 |
| Combustion turbine | 30 | 10 |
| Advanced nuclear | . | 90 |
| Geothermal | 90 | 90 |
| Biomass | . | 83 |
| Battery Storage | . | 10 |
| Wind, onshore | 40 | 41 |
| Wind, offshore | 45 | 44 |
| Solar, standalone | 30 | 29 |
| Solar, hybrid | . | 28 |
| Hydroelectric | 73 | 55 |
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Yeah, it is pretty astounding.
Time to update that chart. 2020 was ~ 142 GW new capacity. So instead of ~ leveling off at 70 GW new capacity a year, the PV growth rate was a doubling in 3-4 years. We just might see a TW of new PV a year by 2030.
That is not fast enough to deal with AGW but it is an impressive number. Add another TW of wind a year and then we we might avoid catastrophic AGW
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Figure I post this chart here to compare in the future. Looks like projection is nominal increase of 2-2.2% annually.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks
LOL, glad I am not relying on EIA to make investment decisions.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
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