I think they will be able to produce a limited number of vehicles that also hit the 40% mineral requirement, but definitely not a full year's domestic demand
Tesla recently registered a new "Model Y All Wheel Drive" for 2023 with the EPA speculated to be a 4680-based Standard Range model, that one might be specifically set up to capture both halves of the credit with whatever amount of domestic and free-trade minerals can be sourced. Maybe it'll be limited to employees though, or who knows what, I think the numbers will be limited either way because there's a finite amount of such minerals available in the world and that's what the IRA legislation is largely designed to change.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the Treasury put the Model Y under the "Other" IRA category with a $55k price limit and Tesla price the Model Y SR right at that number, but who knows. Many are assuming it'll be held to an $80k price limit, but I'd be a bit surprised.