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Electric Car Holy Grail: The Facts Show No One Can Top Tesla

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May 19, 2017
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There’s really no way to fairly frame it differently. Tesla is way ahead. While some of us may not be hardcore Tesla fans, or perhaps we even take issue with the automaker for one reason or another, there’s really become almost no way to prove it’s not incredibly far ahead. C’mon, the Silicon Valley automaker...
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I normally don't get into the business side of Tesla, in part because there's a bit too much drama some of it of course due to Elon's impulsivity and inability to stay off of Twitter.

But it seems that the fossil-fuel biased mainstream press loves to announce roughly on a monthly basis that there is a 'definite Tesla killer' right around the block. LOL!. It's almost a cottage industry in the press these days to announce that Tesla is in trouble (when haven't they been in trouble?), that Tesla about to go under, or it's about to be overtaken by some mythical electric vehicle rival.

It's all pretty laughable frankly including unfortunately the kind of instability in the public image of Tesla that Elon has to take a large chunk of responsibility for. Musk unfortunately appears to take all the bashing very personally. He shouldn't. It's nothing personal. It's simply that fossil fuels have been the foundation of our civilization and technology for some two hundred years or more, and here comes this upstart out of nowhere who all of a sudden is threatening a critical leg of that dominance responsible for roughly 30% or more of our fossil fuel consumption.

Tesla is simply years ahead of everybody else in relationship to several issues. First of all in terms of the critical Triad of battery, electronics, and integrated operating systems that increasingly form essentially the backbone of any vehicle whether it's internal combustion or electric, Tesla has a really sizable lead. Secondly they have a simply huge if not utterly dominant Head Start in relationship to charging technology and infrastructure, a fact which makes most of the putative Tesla Killers a joke including even the Porsche Taycan. As if that weren't enough, their cars are absolutely a hoot to drive, sit at the top of every NHTSA safety score, and look great to boot. Even Consumer Reports begrudgingly admits the Tesla model 3 has the highest owner-satisfaction scores they've ever seen, besting such iconic Brands as Porsche and Corvette that traditionally have very high user satisfaction. This of course coming from a publication that just un-recommended them due to reliability issues that aren't really reliability issues (cracked glass, screen reboots, poor paint quality, and the like). When asked for comment about the highest rated vehicle from owners no longer being recommended by Consumer Reports (whose surveys are of course totally dependent on user report), they had no comment. What more evidence do you need that people simply don't know what to make of Tesla? Except that they want to buy their cars, and will line up in the hundreds of thousands years in advance to get one.

So as long as Elon can avoid making any catastrophically bad decisions, Tesla is going to be the dominant player in EV technology for some time to come. And although many of his tweets are ill-advised his decisions about when to bring them the Model 3 to markets, his sense that the Model Y is an even bigger product, all look prescient.

And it's worth reminding all the doomsayers and gloomy financial experts that in relationship to disruptive technology, one or at most two players bolt out to a huge Head Start. It's only in mature industries that you see the lead shrinking and the pack reeling in the leaders. And given every bit of scientific evidence that climate change is accelerating at a pace not initially predicted, and that we are falling further and further behind, in terms of hitting targets to reduce its most punitive and even catastrophic effects, EV technology becoming a mature field can't happen soon enough. Tesla deserves enormous credit for proving first of all that an EV car can be a great car indeed even Best in Class, and for making EV technology sexy and desirable. It's unlikely we would readily transition to a more ecologically responsible technology if EV Vehicles were extremely unpleasant to drive, ugly and impractical. We can thank Tesla that they're not.
 
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Refutes yet another quote by a famed hater of Tesla:
“Tesla has no … tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever.”
- Bob Lutz on CNBC, September 18, 2018

Bob Lutz is proof that minimally competent and not terribly bright guys can rise to the top of the USA corporate ladder. He knows next to nothing outside his pretty limited wheelhouse, can't see the forest for the trees, and does not deserve any version of a reputation as an auto market Guru. The sad thing is I think that at bottom he's frankly jealous of Elon Musk and what he's achieved and knows that his achievements pale by comparison. So he has to take his most formidable Rivals down a peg or two I suspect
 
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I would understand if this quote was from 2012: “Tesla has no … tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever.”
- Bob Lutz on CNBC, September 18, 2018
But to say this only 7 months ago? When Tesla already is taking away sales from GM,BMW, Mercedes etc....AND has a nationwide charging network? Makes no sense to me. And Lutz was a very good boss for GM
 
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Bob Lutz is proof that minimally competent and not terribly bright guys can rise to the top of the USA corporate ladder. He knows next to nothing outside his pretty limited wheelhouse, can't see the forest for the trees, and does not deserve any version of a reputation as an auto market Guru. The sad thing is I think that at bottom he's frankly jealous of Elon Musk and what he's achieved and knows that his achievements pale by comparison. So he has to take his most formidable Rivals down a peg or two I suspect


Okay. I have to admit that's a bit harsh. But it is unbelievable that Lutz thinks Tesla has no advantages. That part says that his image as an industry Guru and leader may not have great foundations. Tesla right now is making the only car that is getting discernibly better on a three-month interval. Can't say that for any other car even other EVS
 
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You guys are all way too funny. You find fault with everything anyone else says yet the title begs for a laugh and is totally out to lunch:
"The Facts Show No One Can Top Tesla"...really. Such a definative (sic) statement in such an emerging marketplace...

Actually, you didn't really read the posts, or perhaps get the point.

The compulsive 'fault finding' (that you are finding fault with?)) is mostly aimed at Tesla, which is under a critical magnifying glass like few other companies. Some of that comes from a retailiatory approach to Elon's tweeting and feistiness, some of it from a more universal desire to take any segment leader down a peg or two, esp. from the previously class leading ICE manufacturers (Audi, BMW, MB, etc) who grossly underestimated Tesla, both technically, and in terms of the consumer and market response to their cars, and who are scrambling to put something out that could be considered competitive.

Since you consider it a laughable statement that Tesla is on top, who do you think is the segment and market leader in the sedan field, EV or otherwise? Just curious . . . .
 
Since you consider it a laughable statement that Tesla is on top, who do you think is the segment and market leader in the sedan field, EV or otherwise? Just curious . . . .

You obviosuly missed my point, a declarative statement made as such without a qualifier, implies perpetual....

Photography Holy Grail: The Facts Show No One Can Top Kodak

As to your question, Tesla is clearly in the lead wrt the sedan field and the recharge field. The one is derived from a technological, software and battery advantage, giving Tesla a competitive advantage (though questionably, does every driver in the US want a car that gets software updates on an in/frequent basis, you never know what you're getting, and you don't know if stuff will continue to work or degrade - really? No not everyone wants BETA software for the vehilce they depend on. So how much of an advantage that aspect is remains to be seem). The other, recharge, is due to them establishing the network early ahead of everyone else, whom everyone else is remains to be seen btw, and how long that will last is eroding everday.

As for Bob Lutz, what did you want him to say...I mean really did you expect Mr Lutz to get up there and state that they suck and lag behind in almost every aspect of the EV world because they blew it on the Volt while they concetrated on big pickups? Of course he isn't going to say that - he's old school and trying to hide his true feelings, not get fired by the BOD, and keep his bonus.

Just remember Henry Ford didn't introduce the Automobile, Karl Benz did. Everyone thinks of Ford because he/they were able to bring the auto to the masses. Fact is 20 years earlier autos were produced for the elite/well to do that could aford them, but Ford started the production line, and brought autos to the masses. Benz won and Ford lost the first battle, Nowadays it could be argued that Ford has won the war and Benz has lost it - it's an everchanging landscape and only wrt to Tesla have I ever seen a headline like The Facts Show No One Can Top Tesla.

Dzm
 
But it is unbelievable that Lutz thinks Tesla has no advantages.
Go to the horse’s mouth: at about 3:00 in the CNBC video is where Lutz says exactly that in Sept. 2018:

Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz

Lutz flies other gems like Tesla “is headed for the graveyard.”

I don’t like to give CNBC any ad revenue for posting trash-talking Lutz, but there’s the proof Lutz said it. I think Lutz believes what he is saying and doesn’t know he lacks clue. If he is saying something he doesn’t really think, then doesn’t that make Lutz a liar?
 
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Go to the horse’s mouth: at about 3:00 in the CNBC video is where Lutz says exactly that in Sept. 2018:

Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz

Lutz flies other gems like Tesla “is headed for the graveyard.”

I don’t like to give CNBC any ad revenue for posting trash-talking Lutz, but there’s the proof Lutz said it. I think Lutz believes what he is saying and doesn’t know he lacks clue. If he is saying something he doesn’t really think, then doesn’t that make Lutz a liar?

I never had any doubts that he said it. I just find it unbelievable that somebody with his putative resume would deny the obvious. And it has to be in the service of taking Tesla down a peg as the leader, not just a leader but the dominant leader.
 
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Go to the horse’s mouth: at about 3:00 in the CNBC video is where Lutz says exactly that in Sept. 2018:

Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz

Lutz flies other gems like Tesla “is headed for the graveyard.”

I don’t like to give CNBC any ad revenue for posting trash-talking Lutz, but there’s the proof Lutz said it. I think Lutz believes what he is saying and doesn’t know he lacks clue. If he is saying something he doesn’t really think, then doesn’t that make Lutz a liar?

That was actually entertaining. Yeah, he was talking about Tesla loosing huge amounts of cash in the final month of Q3 when they ended up making significant profits. That said, the comment in question is slightly misquoted. If you listen to the entire thought he was saying that once the big iron car makers start producing "high quality, high technology" EVs Tesla will have none of the advantages we see today. That makes sense to me and is pretty much what I am forecasting except for the charging network which I think will be a significant advantage for the next 4 to 5 years and he seemed to ignore. That is in line with the way GM is selling the Bolt. Just don't ask about charging.

But once the other car makers start rolling out EVs in large quantities and there are sufficient chargers we will see Tesla having to earn their keep. I think they can do it, but the point is this is not a slam dunk that many here believe.

There is a reason why there have been no new auto makers in over 50 years.
 
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I never had any doubts that he said it. I just find it unbelievable that somebody with his putative resume would deny the obvious. And it has to be in the service of taking Tesla down a peg as the leader, not just a leader but the dominant leader.

Like many, you don't seem to understand that while Tesla may be out of the hospital nursery, it is a long way from being mature. There are many ways a company like this can fail. The fact that they got gobs of venture capital to start an automobile company doesn't mean they will still be around in 10 or even 5 years. It is a tough market and the only reason they are the top dog is because their competition so far is cars like the Leaf which started with a range of well under 100 miles and doesn't protect its batteries properly. The market will become much, much more competitive by 2024. Tesla will need to fix a lot of problems by then and very likely will need to have a new CEO at the helm.

Heck, it's possible they will become a supplier of semi-trucks and drop the passenger car business. It is just too early to tell how it is going to shake out.
 
Like many, you don't seem to understand that while Tesla may be out of the hospital nursery, it is a long way from being mature. There are many ways a company like this can fail. The fact that they got gobs of venture capital to start an automobile company doesn't mean they will still be around in 10 or even 5 years. It is a tough market and the only reason they are the top dog is because their competition so far is cars like the Leaf which started with a range of well under 100 miles and doesn't protect its batteries properly. The market will become much, much more competitive by 2024. Tesla will need to fix a lot of problems by then and very likely will need to have a new CEO at the helm.

Heck, it's possible they will become a supplier of semi-trucks and drop the passenger car business. It is just too early to tell how it is going to shake out.

While I agree that Tesla is still financially fragile and has not reached a position that insures long-term survival and success, and that Elon Musk while undeniably a technical genius may not be the person to lead the company from the standpoint of fiscal and other long-term planning, the notion that Tesla is on top because the competition is so weak is rather stunningly dismissive of Tesla's technological Innovation and Leadership. In relationship to the critical Triad of Battery Technology, electronics, and charging infrastructure Tesla has at least - at least - a five-year Head Start. So far every putative Tesla killer has turned out to be stunningly disappointing. Have you ever actually driven a Jaguar I pace, the electric vehicle of the year?

By the way, what kind of car do you drive?
 
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While I agree that Tesla is still financially fragile and has not reached a position that insures long-term survival and success, and that Elon Musk while undeniably a technical genius may not be the person to lead the company from the standpoint of fiscal and other long-term planning, the notion that Tesla is on top because the competition is so weak is rather stunningly dismissive of Tesla's technological Innovation and Leadership. In relationship to the critical Triad of Battery Technology, electronics, and charging infrastructure Tesla has at least - at least - a five-year Head Start. So far every putative Tesla killer has turned out to be stunningly disappointing. Have you ever actually driven a Jaguar I pace, the electric vehicle of the year?

By the way, what kind of car do you drive?

Toyota Tundra and Model X. I have not driven any other EV except for the Bolt.

I'm not sure what you base your "head start" comment on. I am not aware that Tesla has significantly better batteries than other car makers. Most of the electronics is wiz-bang stuff that doesn't even work correctly, that's why everything interesting is listed as "beta". Hell, I can't even get my heater/AC to work as well as in my truck.

I have previously acknowledged the importance of the charging infrastructure and is and will be the main differentiator for the next few years... IF Tesla continues to grow it. Right now, even though Tesla is the only car company with a charging network (in the US) to support EV trips, it is still far from optimal and many potential owners won't find it acceptable.

Remember they are not just competing with other EVs, they are also competing with ICE and have to make EVs palatable for the mainstream buyer if they want to continue to grow. Charging infrastructure is no small part of that and is not yet up to snuff for the long haul.
 
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Toyota Tundra and Model X. I have not driven any other EV except for the Bolt.

I'm not sure what you base your "head start" comment on. I am not aware that Tesla has significantly better batteries than other car makers. Most of the electronics is wiz-bang stuff that doesn't even work correctly, that's why everything interesting is listed as "beta". Hell, I can't even get my heater/AC to work as well as in my truck.

I have previously acknowledged the importance of the charging infrastructure and is and will be the main differentiator for the next few years... IF Tesla continues to grow it. Right now, even though Tesla is the only car company with a charging network (in the US) to support EV trips, it is still far from optimal and many potential owners won't find it acceptable.

Remember they are not just competing with other EVs, they are also competing with ICE and have to make EVs palatable for the mainstream buyer if they want to continue to grow. Charging infrastructure is no small part of that and is not yet up to snuff for the long haul.

You're clearly a 'glass is half-empty' kind of guy.
 
You're clearly a 'glass is half-empty' kind of guy.

LOL

I am a realist. This is not about "perspective". It's about the facts. I've done a lot of reading about the batteries, the motors and have paid close attention to the behavior of my car and the reactions of people when I am honest with them. For probably 95% of car buyers, EVs are simply not ready for prime time as yet.

As I've said, the big issue is charging. Behind that is range. EVs will only become widespread once those two issues are dealt with.

Look at all the people who come here complaining that they can't charge at their apartment or condo. Talk to an EV owner who has driven on trips. While EVs don't have to be range limited to an extension cord, they just don't suit most people. I bought one because I have always wanted an EV, even long before you could buy one. One day I realized I could buy what I wanted without impacting my retirement, so I did. I also have a backup vehicle. Not many people are in that position or even care much about having an EV. It will take time and I don't know for sure Tesla will be around then.
 
Bob Lutz is proof that minimally competent and not terribly bright guys can rise to the top of the USA corporate ladder. He knows next to nothing outside his pretty limited wheelhouse, can't see the forest for the trees, and does not deserve any version of a reputation as an auto market Guru. The sad thing is I think that at bottom he's frankly jealous of Elon Musk and what he's achieved and knows that his achievements pale by comparison. So he has to take his most formidable Rivals down a peg or two I suspect

I heard another great Bob Lutz quote last week as well. When Renault initially invested into Nissan, Nissan was in such rough shape that he said Renault would be better off putting $5B onto a barge and sinking it in the river. I love his personality, but God he's made some big 'whoopses'
 
LOL

I am a realist. This is not about "perspective". It's about the facts. I've done a lot of reading about the batteries, the motors and have paid close attention to the behavior of my car and the reactions of people when I am honest with them. For probably 95% of car buyers, EVs are simply not ready for prime time as yet.

As I've said, the big issue is charging. Behind that is range. EVs will only become widespread once those two issues are dealt with.

Look at all the people who come here complaining that they can't charge at their apartment or condo. Talk to an EV owner who has driven on trips. While EVs don't have to be range limited to an extension cord, they just don't suit most people. I bought one because I have always wanted an EV, even long before you could buy one. One day I realized I could buy what I wanted without impacting my retirement, so I did. I also have a backup vehicle. Not many people are in that position or even care much about having an EV. It will take time and I don't know for sure Tesla will be around then.

Haven't you seen the Sandy Munro summaries on the engine and battery modules? Tesla is clearly ahead in both those key areas, as well as overall integration.
 
Haven't you seen the Sandy Munro summaries on the engine and battery modules? Tesla is clearly ahead in both those key areas, as well as overall integration.

Perhaps I didn't explain clearly, I agree with Sandy Monroe that the drive train is better than anything other EV makers have. But it isn't exactly the batteries themselves. I've read about the battery chemistry and it is well optimized for EV use, but that is not exclusive to Tesla. What Tesla has done is to optimize the charging and discharging to maximize the battery life.

I've read that the Nissan Leaf has had some issues with battery life which can be a significant problem for mass sales. It will only be a couple of years before we start seeing more coverage of EVs in the same way they cover a new Honda model without all the hype and focus on much less important wiz-bang stuff like 3 second 0-60 times. So things like battery life will get widely reported and be life and death for any EV maker. I have no doubt the other EV makers will be doing a good job with the batteries. It is just a matter of time.

Otherwise Sandy Monroe talked about profit margins by building in China... I'll wait to see how Tesla does with their factory before I give an opinion on that. If they really do have high volume production in Shanghai by the end of this year, that will be a big win for Tesla. The Chinese market is huge with lots of potential. We will see if the Shanghai factory is the first Tesla project to be done on time.