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Electric car predictions for the future

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by graham, Mar 2, 2009.

  1. graham

    graham Active Member

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    Report: 32.7 million electric cars by 2015

     
  2. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    An average of 4.5 million cars per year seems a bit high to me at this stage in the game. BUT I hope that they are correct.
     
  3. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    As one who's does research in nanotechnology, their name sounds full of buzzwords.
     
  4. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    #4 vfx, Nov 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 13, 2016
    Semi related future predictions.



    Not bad really.
     
  5. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    Interesting quote from Carlos Ghosn -
     
  6. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Hybridcars.com has 10 EV predictions for 2011.

    1. The majority of people who drive a plug-in vehicle won't own it.
    2. Automakers will get pushback from EV owners regarding the length of time
    it takes to fully charge a vehicle.
    3. Stop-start vehicles will arrive in the United States, albeit in small numbers.
    4. Many EV charging stations will spend the majority of their time idle.
    5. Fuel cell vehicles will be sold (sic) to fleets and consumers in small but growing
    numbers.
    6. Someone somewhere will have a bad EV experience and the media will
    overreact.
    7. The advanced battery category will heat up with M&A activity.
    8. "Range anxiety" will prove to be more fiction than fact.
    9. The best-selling EVs won't have four wheels.
    10. The landscape for charging equipment will undergo a seismic shift as the
    category swiftly moves toward becoming a commodity market.

    (from Pike Research)
     
  7. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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  8. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    Funny how most of these were dead wrong for 2012, let alone 2011.
     
  9. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Future predictions of technology have never been very accurate. Generally it takes a person of vision (and resources) to make the future happen.
     
  10. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    Sure, but given how short term those predictions were, they were amazingly bad.
     
  11. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Well, 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 10 seem to be based on wishful thinking rather than any kind of thoughtful research.
     
  12. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    Or so painfully obvious they're not worth mentioning like "4. Many EV charging stations will spend the majority of their time idle."
    That's Pike "Research" for you.

    Though curable, #8 (Range Anxiety) turned out to be real.
     
  13. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Due to revisionist history and faulty records/memories, sometimes past predictions are similarly inaccurate.
     
  14. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Amazing #6 has only happened in a plane.
     
  15. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    Border is not counted? How come?:confused:
     
  16. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    After a peer review study it was determined to be operator error.
     
  17. constraint

    constraint Member

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    prediction for 2015....

    Toyota buys Telsa for 5 billion.
    Press Quote:
    The only successful north american ev manufacturer today announced the repayment of the DOE loan and the sale of Telsa Motors to Toyota (or Mercedes). Toyota announced that Tesla will become a sub brand (much like Audi) and will continue to pursue the electric drive train that Tesla is so well known for.


    OK, so above is probably a slim chance, but my real prediction is
    1. Leaf sells 15-20k units a year, and all other EV's besides Telsa (and the volt) struggle to hit 3000 a year.
    2. Charge point and any other large scale charging infrastructure company goes bankrupt due to low demand for 30 amp level 2 charging. (too many instances of spots being ICE'd or not utilized for charging)
    3. New designs for 160 mile range + EV's from major manufactures start hitting the showrooms by 2016. By then the tax credit is gone and sales are mild due to the expense of the cars.
    4. Gen 3 is delayed till 2018 (with significant deliveries by 2019)
     
  18. mattjn

    mattjn Member

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    total EV sales won't hit 1 million until 2025
     
  19. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    I've run the numbers and I think that Obama's prediction of 1 million plug-in vehicles by 2015 can work. It will be at the end of 2015, but that is still 2015. If the Gen III comes out in 2016 then I'll predict that we'll have 1 million pure EV's on the road by 2020.
     

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