Electric Cars Outsell Hybrids In California: Tesla Model 3 Tops In Class

[TMC Staff]

Plug-in electric cars outsold hybrids almost 2:1 in California According to the California New Car Dealers Association’s latest report on the car market in California in 2018, electrification of the state’s fleet accelerated. In the past year, some 2 million new cars were registered in the state (down 2.2% year-over-year), while the passenger car category decreased...
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[jboy210]

This helps explains why I see so many Tesla in general, and Model 3s in particular, here in Northern California

 

[tonybelding]

But the headline is not what the chart shows. Headline says, "Electric Cars Outsell Hybrids". Chart shows 145,198 hybrids versus 94,813 electric cars. Not sure where you guys learned math from, but mine says 145,198 is a bigger number than 94,813.

 

[EinSV]

The key number is that 4.7% of cars sold in California in 2018 were BEVs. This was even higher in the second half of the year when Model 3 sales took off (Teslas alone were 5.2% of California sales in the fourth quarter).

Norway reached the ~5% BEV level in 2013 and only five years later (2018) about one-third of vehicles sold in Norway were BEVs. Electric car sales grew by 40% in Norway this year

With a better selection of more affordable BEVs like the Model 3 and Y available, California should be able to do even better than that in five years.

 

[jboy210]

The key number is that 4.7% of cars sold in California in 2018 were BEVs. This was even higher in the second half of the year when Model 3 sales took off (Teslas alone were 5.2% of California sales in the fourth quarter).

Norway reached the ~5% BEV level in 2013 and only five years later (2018) about one-third of vehicles sold in Norway were BEVs. Electric car sales grew by 40% in Norway this year

With a better selection of more affordable BEVs like the Model 3 and Y available, California should be able to do even better than that in five years.

While Tesla is great, the real growth in the US will come from more affordable cars like the Hyundai Kona Electric and sister Kia cars, the Nero EV and Soul EV with 240+ mile range. Starting in the mid 30s before the full $7,500 tax credit, these cars will sell well. And I bet even though they are only sold in certain states, people from other states will buy them.

 

[EinSV]

While Tesla is great, the real growth in the US will come from more affordable cars like the Hyundai Kona Electric and sister Kia cars, the Nero EV and Soul EV with 240+ mile range. Starting in the mid 30s before the full $7,500 tax credit, these cars will sell well. And I bet even though they are only sold in certain states, people from other states will buy them.

IMO, EVs from other manufacturers will certainly help accelerate the transition to EVs especially in the longer term, but Tesla IMO will continue to lead the way until prices of other EVs can come down significantly.

EVs from other manufacturers -- including the ones you mention -- are getting better but still have room for improvement before they are truly competitive. The Niro EV is expected to start at $37K and will not compare well at all to the Model 3 even at current prices. It also has a significant premium to the ICE version of the same car, which will limit popularity. And the dealership model will continue to be a major hurdle, with dealers refusing to market it aggressively and attempting to steer customers to ICE vehicles, as we've seen with other EVs.

Here is CleanTechnica on the Niro:

Editor’s note: Well, there’s still one reason [to buy a gasoline car]: The Kia Niro FE has a starting MSRP of $23,490, the Kia Niro LX $23,900, the Kia Niro EX $26,400, the Kia Niro S Touring $28,800, the Kia Niro Touring $32,250, and the Kia Niro EV’s price is likely to start around $37,000. With the $7,500 — if you can use it — that could be brought down to under $30,000, but that’s still considerably more than the lower priced trims. . . . Kia Niro EV Review — With 240 Miles Of Range, I Repeat: There Is No More Excuse To Not Own An Electric Car | CleanTechnica

Some of the EVs from other manufacturers improve on the Bolt, but as with the Bolt we continue to see too much of an EV premium from other manufacturers. That will slow adoption of EVs until prices come down. And the dealership model, limited availability and lack of incentive for manufacturers to aggressively market these cars will continue to be major hurdles.

EVs from a large number of other manufacturers, even if individually low in volume, should add up and help accelerate the transition to EVs much more than Tesla going it alone and as EV prices come down over the next 3-5 years should play an even bigger role. In the meantime, I would expect Tesla to lead the charge in disrupting the industry with the Model 3 with the Model Y on deck.

 

[dgatwood]

But the headline is not what the chart shows. Headline says, "Electric Cars Outsell Hybrids". Chart shows 145,198 hybrids versus 94,813 electric cars. Not sure where you guys learned math from, but mine says 145,198 is a bigger number than 94,813.

Correct. The headline was badly misleading. It should say that electric cars outsell non-plug-in hybrids.

 

[jboy210]

...
And the dealership model will continue to be a major hurdle, with dealers refusing to market it aggressively and attempting to steer customers to ICE vehicles, as we've seen with other EVs.

The Hyundia and Kia announced that in the US, the Niro EV and the Kia EVs are sold out They are now projecting multi year waits for them in the US. Sounds like the dealers can sell every one they get their hands one with zero marketing effort.

Hopefully this gives Tesla a little breathing room, but we Tesla owners should not kid ourselves. The competition is here now! And in the US have their full $7,500 credit allowance.

As the headline your quoted said, " Kia Niro EV Review — With 240 Miles Of Range, I Repeat: There Is No More Excuse To Not Own An Electric Car"

Whether that car is a Tesla depends on Tesla. Hopefully Tesla is up to the challenge.

I knew this day was coming and is one reason I leased my X and ensured my HPWC was wired the same as a NEMA 14-50. My next car in 2 years will be an EV, but it may or may not be a Tesla.​

 

[EinSV]

The Hyundia and Kia announced that in the US, the Niro EV and the Kia EVs are sold out They are now projecting multi year waits for them in the US. Sounds like the dealers can sell every one they get their hands one with zero marketing effort.

Hopefully this gives Tesla a little breathing room, but we Tesla owners should not kid ourselves. The competition is here now! And in the US have their full $7,500 credit allowance.

As the headline your quoted said, " Kia Niro EV Review — With 240 Miles Of Range, I Repeat: There Is No More Excuse To Not Own An Electric Car"

Whether that car is a Tesla depends on Tesla. Hopefully Tesla is up to the challenge.

I knew this day was coming and is one reason I leased my X and ensured my HPWC was wired the same as a NEMA 14-50. My next car in 2 years will be an EV, but it may or may not be a Tesla.​

They are "sold out" only because they are being made in very low volumes. These are compliance cars that will help EV adoption a bit at the margins only. Coming To America In 2019 — Compliance Cars Only | CleanTechnica

They will not drive EV growth because the legacy oems have not made the large capital investments in batteries and EV drivetrains necessary to make compelling EVs that are affordable and profitable in volume. The only company that has done this outside of China is Tesla.

As many predicted, the Bolt has been a colossal failure because it was a $17.000 car being sold for $37,000 with an EV drivetrain. In low volumes. The new generation of EVs from Hyundai and Kia are ~$23,000 cars being sold for $37,000 with an EV drivetrain. In low volumes. By dealers without incentives to sell them.

A step in the right direction but not nearly enough.

I do think more affordable EVs from other manufacturers -- maybe led by Chinese manufacturers who are taking EVs seriously -- eventually will be available in high volumes outside China but probably not for a few years.

 

[EinSV]

The Hyundia and Kia announced that in the US, the Niro EV and the Kia EVs are sold out They are now projecting multi year waits for them in the US. Sounds like the dealers can sell every one they get their hands one with zero marketing effort.

Hopefully this gives Tesla a little breathing room, but we Tesla owners should not kid ourselves. The competition is here now! And in the US have their full $7,500 credit allowance.

As the headline your quoted said, " Kia Niro EV Review — With 240 Miles Of Range, I Repeat: There Is No More Excuse To Not Own An Electric Car"

Whether that car is a Tesla depends on Tesla. Hopefully Tesla is up to the challenge.

I knew this day was coming and is one reason I leased my X and ensured my HPWC was wired the same as a NEMA 14-50. My next car in 2 years will be an EV, but it may or may not be a Tesla.​

Here is a post I made in 2016 about the Bolt. Substitute "Hyundai" or "Kia" for "GM," and Kona" or "Niro" for "Bolt" and the same holds true today for the latest round of "affordable" EVs.

Legacy automakers can and should do much bettter and personally I see no reason to applaud their half-assed efforts so far.

The problem that I have with the Bolt is that with all of its resources GM could have done much, much better, but is choosing to dabble in EVs instead of making the major investments necessary to make an EV that is competitive with similarly priced ICE cars.

What Tesla has demonstrated is that when you build compelling BEV cars that are better than the ICE competition at the same price, you can outsell the competition. That is true for the Model S, and will be soon for the Model 3. The Bolt falls far short in that department and for that reason is a major disappointment to me and I believe many people.

For about the same price, a customer can buy a BMW X1 or X3, Audi Q1 or Q3 or the like. The Bolt is just not in the same league with those and other comparably priced vehicles, so its customers will largely be limited to people who really want an EV, and have that as their main and perhaps only buying criteria.

My problem with the Bolt is not that Tesla is a better company than GM (although I think it is). My problem is that GM chose not to make the investments in battery and EV technology and EV vehicle design necessary to make the Bolt a compelling choice to customers, while being profitable for the company. Instead, GM projects the Bolt to sell only 30,000 cars in the first year, a laughably small number compared with GM's total sales of 9.8 million vehicles in 2015, and compared to successful vehicles from other manufacturers in the same price range.

I am glad that GM is introducing a long-range BEV -- it is a step in the right direction. I hope its next BEV is much better and I think it can be if GM's management and its Board decide to make it a priority and make the necessary investments. For the good of GM's own employees and shareholders, I hope that GM quits dabbling in the EV game and gets serious about it.

 

[jboy210]

Here is a post I made in 2016 about the Bolt. Substitute "Hyundai" or "Kia" for "GM," and Kona" or "Niro" for "Bolt" and the same holds true today for the latest round of "affordable" EVs.

Legacy automakers can and should do much bettter and personally I see no reason to applaud their half-assed efforts so far.

They have to start somewhere. We should encourage them to continue to replace their ICE cars with BEVs. 250 mile range is something that just 2 or 3 years ago would have been much more expensive. I wish my 2018 X 75 had that much range.

And remember the Model 3 is still suffering from 1st/2nd year flaws. It will get better just like the S and X did, but it will take time. And because of these issues there is no way I would want a 2016 X over my 2018 built X. And I wish I had a new 2019 built X with the longer base range.

 

[EinSV]

They have to start somewhere. We should encourage them to continue to replace their ICE cars with BEVs. 250 mile range is something that just 2 or 3 years ago would have been much more expensive. I wish my 2018 X 75 had that much range.

People said the same thing about the Bolt, but predictably it has been a huge failure (only 18,000 sold in the U.S. in 2018).

I believe the half-hearted efforts of the handful of legacy OEMs who have made EVs to date are not serious and deserve honest criticism, not praise. If they had invested the billions necessary to make compelling EVs instead of compliance cars, different story. EVs from other manufacturers will add marginally to EV sales but not anywhere near as much as they should. Tesla will continue to have to take the laboring oar, especially in North America.

When the Chinese EV manufacturers improve their products and begin selling them in volume in Europe and North America, alongside Tesla, that should help. And eventually some of the legacy oems will step up their EV game. The current round of products from them is not very impressive (maybe the Taycan will be an exception, we'll see).