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Electric Vehicle Jobs
- Thread starter juliusa
- Start date
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Um... yeah... this is the first time we've had machines that can learn. Without AI applications like auto pilot, Speech recognition and even AMZN would not be possible. This time is A LOT different. Like a 747 is different from the wheel different.
And COVID has probably accelerated the transition by ~10 years. Last time I was at Wal-Mart there were 30 checkout lanes and 3 cashiers. Other companies like Costco have been resisting. Almost seem immoral now... a machine can't catch COVID.
.... yeah.... it's different. That's a YUGE understatement...
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Right. And cars that can drive themselves.
Nothing new. Remember when there were elevator operators?? Now elevators drive themselves, and we survived.
Remember the 727? Required 3 on the flight deck. New planes do not need a flight engineer. We survived.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Elevator operators didn't support ~30M jobs. Where will all the truckers go? Will they be cashiers? Oh... wait...
What will convince you there's a problem? When it actually blows up in our faces when an autocratic populist is elected in the US?.......
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
You realize that doesn't count people that have given up looking... right?
So most of these people don't count toward 'unemployment'
Labor force participation does. And that's ~61% now. Probably <60% of you remove 'zombie' workers that are being kept on the payroll hoping COVID goes away. Meaning ~40% of people don't receive an income from working. How high does it need get?
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It counts all people that are looking for a job. There are plenty of people not interested in working - stay-at-home spouse for example. As we become more affluent I would expect the labor participation rate to go down - more families choosing to live on one income, more people choosing to retire early.
I think unemployment rate and number of people living in poverty are good measures. Counts people that are looking for work and people that need work or better paying work. Both were at historical lows just a year ago.
We have plenty of issues and problems to deal with - no need to invent more.
Labor participation rate is higher now than in the 1950s and 1960s.
I see no problem with it going lower. I think 50% would be fine.
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
There's a reason we have the adage an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. It's FAR less painful to resolve problems early than wait until it's a crisis. The transition away from fools fuel would have been A LOT less disruptive and costly had we started in earnest in 1980. Preparing society for the inevitable rise of automation is going to be a lot easier BEFORE we have mile long bread lines.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Only if you ignore inflation. Specifically the rising cost of healthcare, housing and education. Yeah... your clothes and other consumer goods are super-cheap. Good luck paying for a doctor, a place to live or a college degree...
How can you be so blind to the threat automation poses to this cultural fetish of tying income to labor? If the income of ~20% of the population is almost completely independent of labor while ~80% is almost completely dependent on labor. As we can produce more with less labor... that's.... that's a problem for ~80% => a problem for 100%.
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MXLRplus
Active Member
Every few years the handwringers scream that machines/progress will replace us all and we will have no jobs. It's been going on for >200 years.
There will be jobs tomorrow. And 200 years from tomorrow. Nearly every job in the US is automated now. In fact, you are probably typing on "the machine that replaced us all".
There will be jobs tomorrow. And 200 years from tomorrow. Nearly every job in the US is automated now. In fact, you are probably typing on "the machine that replaced us all".
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
What jobs do you think are safe from automation? Do you really think that's enough to provide sufficient gainful employment to support increased consumption to match the increase in production capacity? It's only a matter of time. Maybe not even decades. Who would have predicted FSD in 2010? Machine learning improves exponentially.
MXLRplus
Active Member
My job was going to be eliminated 45 years ago. I'm fully automated and do >100x the work per manhour using robotic equipment.
Every year the amount of work produced by one technician increases. Yet we are so busy we turn away work. Go figure.
But I'm a boomer and have a better set of binoculars to watch the parade of progress than younger people have. They tend to live in the moment.
MXLRplus
Active Member
If there were a WWW in 1975, you'd be posting the exact same thing. Seriously. Heard it all before.
(full self driving was tested in the 1950's? certainly before my time)
(full self driving was tested in the 1950's? certainly before my time)
Ludalicious
Active Member
Dealers will be taking a huge loss. Here's a chart that just shows how much profit will be now lost with no maintenance. You would be surprised. Tesla is only operating on basically Sales and charging ect.. They started offering software upgrades too now. Yes jobs will be lost and shifted to other sectors i am sure in the future.
Dealer Automated Systems - auto consulting, automotive service scheduling, automobile services department
Dealer Automated Systems - auto consulting, automotive service scheduling, automobile services department
MXLRplus
Active Member
A car made in 1965 required constant maintenance and repair. Tires seldom lasted 15,000. Wheel bearings needed repacking, brakes needed adjusting, turning and re-arcing, filters had short lives, points, condensers, plugs, wires, cap, rotor were all short term wear items. Engines were hosed at 50,000 mi, and you rebuilt them from scratch, you did not discard it and get a new one. Nothing lasted long, not even the radiator coolant.
Cars today require perhaps 1% of the manhours to maintain. Where did all those jobs go? Same place "word processor" jobs went.
Cars today require perhaps 1% of the manhours to maintain. Where did all those jobs go? Same place "word processor" jobs went.
The ones you have not thought of yet are safe from current automation capabilities.
Think about all the jobs today that were not even imagined 100 years ago.
Add those to the many jobs today that are not automated.
It will be fine. Really.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
It's not that simple. The fact a solar panel is 99% cheaper doesn't help you see a doctor, find a place to live or pay for college. Those necessities have vastly outpaced the average.
For people that own the capital. Take it to the extreme and you have a lot of poverty unless we decouple labor and income. What would happen if Bezos is able to develop a robot that can displace 100% of the humans at amazon? The only people that would be able to buy anything would be shareholders. What does the other ~50% of the population do?
... did you watch the video? The vast majority of people are employed in modern iterations of jobs that existed 100 years ago. New industries don't absorb that many new workers.
'It will be fine' LOL! Heard the same thing repeated ad nauseam regarding climate change and COVID. Will automation also go away with warmer weather?
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