Electric Vehicle Jobs

[juliusa]

Dealers will be taking a huge loss. Here's a chart that just shows how much profit will be now lost with no maintenance. You would be surprised. Tesla is only operating on basically Sales and charging ect.. They started offering software upgrades too now. Yes jobs will be lost and shifted to other sectors i am sure in the future.

I didn't realize the difference in maintenance on EVs vs ICE. I figured collision work, tires, suspension, heating, AC and probably some other things would be pretty much the same. Engine, exhaust would go away. Coolant would still be there, but different.

And with the average lifespan of a car being something around 12 years, it is a decades-long transition.

But 1,000,000 jobs created by transitioning to EVs?? I don't see it. I see the steady decrease in labor from more automated manufacturing and less maintenance required being offset by design, engineering, R&D, and construction jobs to hold employment steady for a couple of decades, before we see a decline.

 

[juliusa]

Poverty rate IS that simple. It is the percent of the population that does not have enough to live above the poverty level. It takes into account everything - their income and government assistance they receive, cost of food, shelter, medical care, energy, transportation, beer, solar panels, cable TV, 4k TVs, etc.

The vast majority of people are employed in modern iterations of jobs that existed 100 years ago.

You mean jobs that are Internet, computer, and TV related? Ok, then I'll say it is reasonable that 100 years from now the majority of people will be employed in modern iterations of jobs that exist today.

When do you think computers will write movie scripts and have computers generate the movie without actors? Write novels?
When do you think computers will drive cars in a snowstorm?

 

[nwdiver]

But I'm a boomer and have a better set of binoculars to watch the parade of progress than younger people have. They tend to live in the moment.

Like you saw and solved climate change? ...... guess you kinda messed that one up as obvious as it was... automation driven by machine learning is even more so. Wanna try again?

 

[juliusa]

Like you saw and solved climate change? ...... guess you kinda messed that one up as obvious as it was... automation driven by machine learning is even more so. Wanna try again?

Yes. We have solved every problem that has come our way for 6 million years. I'm not worried all that is going to change in 100 years.

 

[nwdiver]

You mean jobs that are Internet, computer, and TV related?

And that's a rounding error compared to other fields that will be eliminated by automation. That's the point. Not that where will be ZERO jobs but few enough by far that we need to decouple labor and income. And it's not like this is binary. Much like climate change it gradually becomes a bigger and bigger problem. Already started... only going to get worse the longer we ignore it.

We have solved every problem that has come our way for 6 million years. I'm not worried all that is going to change in 100 years.

LOL! Ah the lottery fallacy. So the soldier that managed to make it to Berlin in WW2 no longer needs to concern himself with being shot?

 

[juliusa]

And that's a rounding error compared to other fields that will be eliminated by automation.

Nonsense. 40% of the population lived on farms in 1900. About 1% now. All eliminated by automation. That is a big percentage of jobs lost - just in that one sector - over 120 years.

 

[nwdiver]

Nonsense. 40% of the population lived on farms in 1900. About 1% now. All eliminated by automation. That is a big percentage of jobs lost - just in that one sector - over 120 years.

An existing sector grew. Manufacturing wasn't new... it was industrialization.

 

[SVMike]

“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

Of course if he knew math he would have said Median and not Average

 

[juliusa]

An existing sector grew. Manufacturing wasn't new... it was industrialization.

Didn't industrialization mean higher productivity and fewer workers were needed???

We survived. As jobs in one sector go away, other sectors grow and new sectors are created. Worked for 6 million years; it is not going to end tomorrow.

 

[nwdiver]

Didn't industrialization mean higher productivity and fewer workers were needed???

We survived. As jobs in one sector go away, other sectors grow and new sectors are created. Worked for 6 million years; it is not going to end tomorrow.

One sector grew (manufacturing) and required more workers. THAT is what makes the 4th industrial revolution different from the others. ALL sectors will require fewer workers. There's no place to hide.

We needed horses for thousands of years until we didn't. Human labor will soon follow the same path thanks to machine learning. We still use horses but not nearly to the extent we did.

 

[Ludalicious]

I didn't realize the difference in maintenance on EVs vs ICE. I figured collision work, tires, suspension, heating, AC and probably some other things would be pretty much the same. Engine, exhaust would go away. Coolant would still be there, but different.

And with the average lifespan of a car being something around 12 years, it is a decades-long transition.

But 1,000,000 jobs created by transitioning to EVs?? I don't see it. I see the steady decrease in labor from more automated manufacturing and less maintenance required being offset by design, engineering, R&D, and construction jobs to hold employment steady for a couple of decades, before we see a decline.

Don't recall saying all jobs would be transitioning to fixing EV'S. Once individuals start saving thousands on oil changes, vehicle maintenance, engines ect. They will in return now start transitioning that money saved into other sectors. Home renovations, investment properties, traveling ect.

 

[MitchMitch]

Of course if he knew math he would have said Median and not Average

As a fan, I imagine the brilliant George Carlin starting with Median, and then through his refinement process, insuring that more people (sadly?) would relate to the joke with the often misused term Average. . . because literacy and art.

 

[juliusa]

One sector grew (manufacturing) and required more workers. THAT is what makes the 4th industrial revolution different from the others. ALL sectors will require fewer workers. There's no place to hide.

We needed horses for thousands of years until we didn't. Human labor will soon follow the same path thanks to machine learning. We still use horses but not nearly to the extent we did.

The cotton picker was invented 100 years ago. We still pick most fruits and vegetables by hand. Cotton pickers found other jobs.
Horses have been replaced - but last I checked nobody was concerned about horse employment.

Don't worry, there will be new sectors that require workers, and existing sectors will expand. As we become more productive, people can afford more, and we want more stuff. Maybe we'll get to the point where people don't have to work two jobs, where both spouses don't have to work outside the home, where we get 6 weeks of vacation a year (growth for tourism sector), and where we have a 4-day work week (which has been forecast for decades).

 

[nwdiver]

but last I checked nobody was concerned about horse employment.

Yeah... 'cause no one was concerned about horse populations and horses aren't one of the primary consumers that drive economic growth.

If the population of humans did this the environment would be thrilled but I'm betting there would be other consequences and I don't think a ~80% decline in population is the best way to solve the problem.

people can afford more,

With income provided from what? Picking Fruit? How long before machines do that too?

More better technology didn't make more better jobs for horses. Why do you think the same won't soon occur with human labor?

Only a matter of time.

 

[MXLRplus]

Our biggest risk for the future is that our offspring will lose their imagination and surrender to circumstance and rumor.

 

[nwdiver]

Our biggest risk for the future is that our offspring will lose their imagination and surrender to circumstance and rumor.

The quickest way to that is to be locked in a soulless dead end job so you don't lose access to healthcare. The solution is easy. We need to decouple employment from income. Let your imagination soar

 

[juliusa]

Our biggest risk for the future is that our offspring will lose their imagination and surrender to circumstance and rumor.

Exactly. Human creativity and ingenuity can overcome any problem.

 

[nwdiver]

Exactly. Human creativity and ingenuity can overcome any problem.

.... you understand why 'starving artists' are called starving artists... right?

We also have the solution. A UBI. We just need to use it

 

[nwdiver]

Human creativity and ingenuity can overcome any problem.

It's amazing at how far amazon has come in solving the problem of needing to pay humans to do work.

Now we just need to be creative in overcoming our bias that you need to work for income so we still have consumers able to purchase all that our machines are able to provide

 

[juliusa]

Don't need work for income in this country. We have welfare and medicaid - no work requirement.