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tes-s

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Oct 6, 2013
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Cool... glad to hear that loss of jobs is irrelevant because there's always more just around the corner 'Magic'.
Exactly!!
More shall rise to replace them!
Yes!!!
What do you think would have been the more effective time frame to start planning for addressing climate change?
False equivalence. If your doomsday prediction comes true, it can be fixed in a few days with legislation (UBI if that is the solution). In the meantime you can write the legislation and have it all ready to go when needed - just like the Trump health care plan.

I get that you are a proponent of UBI, and believe it is the solution for every problem you see. If you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Relax. There are plenty of jobs. It is going to be ok. Really.
 

nwdiver

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Feb 17, 2013
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Exactly!!

False equivalence. If your doomsday prediction comes true, it can be fixed in a few days with legislation (UBI if that is the solution).

You realize that like climate change, automation is a transition that will take decades. Right? And like climate change it's already well underway. There are already millions of people that have been displaced by automation. Sure... most of them found other jobs that paid far less and had far fewer benefits but maybe they managed to stay above the poverty line. Maybe they even managed to make more per year by working longer hours. But they are worse off, they are bitter and angry. Bitter angry people turn nativist, xenophobic and for some odd reason sometimes anti-Semitic. It's a story as old as time.

So your solution to AI driven automation is wait until there are torch bearing mobs in the streets hanging Kukas from light posts, THEN overnight implement a UBI? Many would argue that a reality TV 'star' populist winning the GOP primary 4 years ago was as close to that point as we should want to get. What about all the people suffering before that point? Suck it up and wait?

Relax. There are plenty of jobs. It is going to be ok. Really.

The number of man-hours worked annually in the US has not increased in 15 years even as productivity has increased 42%. That's only going to accelerate. I agree it will be ok as soon as we can dispense with this ideological absurdity that only investors and heirs get to spend money they didn't work for :)
 
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tes-s

Active Member
Oct 6, 2013
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You realize that like climate change, automation is a transition that will take decades. Right?
Yep. The difference is implementing UBI (or some other fix) can be done in months - does not take decades. So if/when a need arises, it can be addressed quickly and easily.
The number of man-hours worked annually in the US has not increased in 15 years even as productivity has increased 42%.
I doubt that - perhaps the average number of hours worked has not increased, but with the increasing population I'm quite sure the total has increased.

But you data say as productivity has increased (42% inf 15 years), it has not resulted in unemployment.

When it does, we can take action. UBI proponents can spend the next 30 years preparing legislation so it is ready.

The sky is not falling.
 

David_Cary

Active Member
Dec 17, 2012
1,249
872
Cary, NC
I think one of the better ways to explain the Trump presidency is that unskilled labor is worried. They worry about out sourcing jobs. They worry about environmental regulations. They worry about immigration. They blame darker skin folks that work for less money. And really, they are mostly worried about automation but that doesn't rile up emotions as well as the others.

That is the concern that we already faced 4 years ago and barely squeaked by a few days ago. Worry/anxiety by the working class voted in a pathetic excuse for a president that has diminished the US in global standings, decimated environmental regulations, and sowed discontent that has probably put this country on a downward path.

The worry is the problem. The worry will bring another Trump around.

The populist/autocratic movement (I don't know what else to call it) is not simply a US phenomenon either.

My take on Covid is that it really isn't going away. Ever. There are a lot of folks that are employed by companies that haven't realized it yet. We will decrease but not eliminate Covid impacts but our desire for face to face interaction has been permanently decreased - which will accelerate automation.

I am not sure that our government is flexible enough to tackle these things. There will be upheaval. Throw in a little climate based upheaval and it isn't a super great trajectory we are on.

Tes - I am going to make some assumptions here and I realize that is what they are. In a wealthy area, you see people being employed to come scratch your back and perform services for you. These can be manipulated fairly easily and shifted around. It isn't that way in much of the country.

If the sky isn't falling, how do you explain Trump?
 
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tes-s

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Oct 6, 2013
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If the sky isn't falling, how do you explain Trump?
I don't explain Trump, but the jobs component of his 2016 election was simple. After decades of shipping jobs to other countries, particularly China, he was going to reverse that. And he did. Jobs came back to the US and real wages rose for the first time in decades. Nothing to do with automation.

I expect Biden will continue that 180 degree change in China and job policy. We don't have nearly enough labor to make everything here that we consume - it will take many decades for productivity and automation to change that.

Maybe he'll get an infrastructure bill passed. More jobs that robots won't be doing.
 

nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
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I don't explain Trump, but the jobs component of his 2016 election was simple. After decades of shipping jobs to other countries, particularly China, he was going to reverse that.

??? Wait. Why would the cause matter? Didn't you claim more jobs could just be conjured out of nothing?

Screen Shot 2020-11-08 at 10.46.13 AM.png


Why didn't those workers just take some job they couldn't even imagine?

The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.

But you data say as productivity has increased (42% inf 15 years), it has not resulted in unemployment.

Maybe not as we define unemployment but fewer people are working. For the 2nd time you're not going to see this
appear as much in unemployment because people will give up looking for work. It will be interesting to see what this looks like after COVID is gone and people that are currently furloughed are laid off if no longer needed.

Screen Shot 2020-11-08 at 10.11.40 AM.png
 
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nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
8,474
11,681
United States
MANY more people are working, and a higher percentage. You are only looking at part of the chart.

View attachment 606488

I was looking at the past 15 years. Labor force participation only includes the 'non-institutional' portion of the population so it can change with the size of the military. A larger military causes the labor force participation rate to appear lower since active duty personnel don't count.

.... the point is that there are in fact fewer people in the workforce than there were 15 years ago as a percentage of the population. 'Unemployment' may not have risen but the percentage of people that are not employed clearly has....
 

tes-s

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Oct 6, 2013
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In 1950 active military was 2% of workforce vs 1% now. Even with a smaller percentage of people in the military there is higher participation rate today with COVID than in 1950.

Pre-COVID, labor force participation rate was increasing for the previous 5 years.

.... the point is you are choosing an arbitrary point in time. Why choose 2005 instead of 1950?
 
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nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
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United States
Why choose 2005 instead of 1950?

Because 2005 is a more comparable demographic mix than 1950. Are you really suggesting that we didn't need more people working to provide the same output in 1950? Doesn't change the reality that there is a lower percentage of people working in 2018 than in 2003.

If jobs are as abundant and easily created as you claim... why was Trumps message so attractive? Losing jobs to China shouldn't matter anymore than losing them to automation... just imagineer more jobs :)
 

nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
8,474
11,681
United States
You are making my case. There is plenty of work to do. Automation will help, not hurt.

If jobs are as abundant and easily created as you claim... why was Trumps message so attractive? Losing jobs to China shouldn't matter anymore than losing them to automation... just imagineer more jobs :)

If job losses don't matter then why do job losses appear to matter so much? Have GOP voters completely lost their minds?

Screen Shot 2020-11-08 at 3.15.09 PM.png
 
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tes-s

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Oct 6, 2013
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If jobs are as abundant and easily created as you claim... why was Trumps message so attractive?
Trump blah blah blah. He lost. Move on.

We have more jobs than we can fill - automation is going to help not hurt. People in China are not going to insulate every building in the US. They are not going to install solar panels here. They are not going to mine coal or drill for oil here. They are not going to clean rooms in hotels or serve food in restaurants. They are not going to build the bridges or pave the highways. And we are no longer going to outsource critical manufacturing there - like PPE.

So much work to do; so few workers. We need to accelerate automation to keep the economy from stalling - and perhaps bring in guest workers from other countries.
 

nwdiver

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Feb 17, 2013
8,474
11,681
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Trump blah blah blah. He lost. Move on.

>70M people voted for him. That's
the second most votes anyone has ever received. Why? If jobs are as abundant and easily created as you claim... why was Trumps message so attractive? Losing jobs to China shouldn't matter anymore than losing them to automation... just imagineer more jobs.

So much work to do; so few workers.

Again... if that's true then why are job losses such a big deal? Your OP was a promise of 1M jobs. If that's just more fish in the sea then why is this even relevant?
 

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
11,053
8,862
Maine

>70M people voted for him. That's
the second most votes anyone has ever received. Why? If jobs are as abundant and easily created as you claim... why was Trumps message so attractive? Losing jobs to China shouldn't matter anymore than losing them to automation... just imagineer more jobs.

Automation increases wealth.

Moving jobs moves wealth but it also moves jobs to locations with lower wages and worse working and living conditions.

There is a very big difference between the two.
 
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David_Cary

Active Member
Dec 17, 2012
1,249
872
Cary, NC
The fact that hasn't been mentioned much is that median wage growth is pretty abysmal given the increased automation and wealth. There might be jobs and they might pay 10% more than 1950 (making that up) but in a world that is 3 times wealthier (again guessing), that seems pretty unfair.
 

nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
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11,681
United States

tes-s

Active Member
Oct 6, 2013
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The effects of outsourcing and automation are nearly identical.
Polar opposites. Outsourcing moves the work to another country. Automation keeps the work here.

Do you think outsourcing PPE production to China is at all similar to automating it in the US??

>70M people voted for him. That's the second most votes anyone has ever received. Why? If jobs are as abundant and easily created as you claim... why was Trumps message so attractive?
Maybe this is why? Reversing a trend that had been moving in the wrong direction.
U.S. income inequality narrowed slightly over last three years: Fed
 

TMThree

Active Member
Mar 28, 2019
1,118
1,781
USA
Our efforts to handle climate change have been a joke.

1. We outsource mfg to china, the pollution is global and its still done, just not in our backyard. Even worse, the factories in China have less restrictions, so the net effect is worse pollution. Don't forget about shipping product across the globe by boat.

2. We stop using coal and moved to NG and other power source. Less coal is good, right? Well, that means less demand from the US, which drives down coal cost. That means China can burn even more coal even more cheaply.

Guess what happens when we move off oil? Chinese would love that. Drive up costs in the US, drive down China's and makes them even better for manufacturing and distribution.

It's not that we shouldn't make changes, but it needs to be logical. Knee jerk feel-good solutions aren't solutions, it is busywork that fails in the original goal.


It's like shutting down a country to avoid covid. That's cool, but its crippling your economy and it won't help because the other countries in the world are on the same planet as yours, and unless you've been able to seal your country off, you'll just get it again from a foreign visitor. Shutting down to avoid hospitals overflowing is logical, but the current shutdowns of the last few months aren't being done with that goal.
 

nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
8,474
11,681
United States
Polar opposites. Outsourcing moves the work to another country. Automation keeps the work here.

.... the end result is the same. Fewer human jobs and higher profits.

2. We stop using coal and moved to NG and other power source. Less coal is good, right? Well, that means less demand from the US, which drives down coal cost. That means China can burn even more coal even more cheaply.

That's why it's important we ensure export terminals can't be built. Keep hearing the same insane argument, 'The coal terminal will bring jobs'. There's countless unimaginable jobs just waiting to be imagined... imagineer something else. Am I right @tes-s? :)

Tribes prevail, kill proposed coal terminal at Cherry Point
 
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