Elon "About to end range anxiety"

[Panu]

Alas, pointing out the slow chargers on my route to the distant super chargers will not do anything to eliminate my range anxiety.

If you know that you cannot reach the SpC and know where you can charge before that I'm not sure what causes your range anxiety. Spending 15 minutes at a slower charger may then take you to the SpC.

 

[NoMoGas]

I think this is not possible. Note the change will be applied to entire model S fleet, so do vechicles in China for example. I think it's very hard to find partnership across China/US/EU. Only OTA SW update is possible.



- - - Updated - - -

https://twitter.com/elonmusk. I think both supercharging and battery swap can be excluded. Other than that no HW change possibility, only SW update.

Elon Musk@elonmusk · 1h 1 hour ago But that's not what I mean by addressing range anxiety


Elon Musk @elonmusk · 2h 2 hours ago

Battery pack swap is active between SF and LA and seems to be working well. Supercharging is the future, though, for non-commercial traffic.

Interesting that he qualified "non commercial traffic". LA superchargers are routinely hogged by limo companies .... Going away?

 

[Julian Cox]

Nothing in the battery would add any additional energy, no. I've tested capacity on several modules and it is as expected.

No reserve batteries or anything hiding in there either. Hehe

Do you mind if I ask what is the capacity of a module and between what upper and lower voltage ranges?

 

[Hometheatremaven]

If this update is to affect all Model Ss, that would include cars without the tech package. So the update can't be Nav related as we don't have it.

 

[Panu]

If this update is to affect all Model Ss, that would include cars without the tech package. So the update can't be Nav related as we don't have it.

New cars already have Nav without tech package and this will enable it on all cars. It is possible that old non tech pack cars get only navigation to charging stations.

 

[orandoy]

Here are my thoughts after having read almost the entire thread (assuming it is correct that GPS is included in all vehicles, whether tech package or not):
* Nav for all
* better routing algorithms including SC stops, and detours when necessary
* some way to have routes automatically approved by Tesla (in local software or by a central computer)
* and a guarantee that we get to the destination, including all necessary services if we don't (probably transport to the nearest SC)

(Looking forward to having P85D VIN 7200x in the garage!)

 

[doctorwho]

A software transformation that changes the Lithium in the battery to Star Trek dilithium crystals and all cars will have warp drive and be capable of warp 10 speeds

 

[AlexT]

Best case scenario (am I allowed to dream?) : improved longrange battery to be released and retrofitted to current fleet. Yes please. <3

 

[wk057]

I'm still laughing every time I see someone post in this thread about hardware changes. "OTA software update" is not new hardware!

As for charge taper, I don't think there is much room for improvement here either. The batteries can only take so much power at different stats of charge. There is no way to do anything about this without a new type of battery. This is a chemical limitation, not a software one.

 

[Panu]

"OTA software update" is not new hardware!

I think Elon wanted to make that very clear to set the expectations. Of course it's always OK to hope more than promised

 

[Zythryn]

Best case scenario (am I allowed to dream?) : improved longrange battery to be released and retrofitted to current fleet. Yes please. <3

You are allowed to dream. Why set yourself up for gaurenteed disappointment?

 

[Tasdevil]

As for charge taper, I don't think there is much room for improvement here either. The batteries can only take so much power at different stats of charge. There is no way to do anything about this without a new type of battery. This is a chemical limitation, not a software one.

Depends how safe tesla were with their bms.
They want to build a trusted reliable brand, so going safe with the bms makes sense. Now that they have thousands of model S data they could be refining it.

 

[GardenEye]

I've reached the end (for now)! phew.
I don't really care too much what EM has in store for my Model S - It's just utterly awesome, extraordinary and unique to Tesla that something like this can happen at all!
"If you don't mind, we're just going to improve your car (driving experience) ... again".
I think that is the real point of the press conference.

 

[WarpedOne]

As for charge taper, I don't think there is much room for improvement here either. The batteries can only take so much power at different stats of charge. There is no way to do anything about this without a new type of battery. This is a chemical limitation, not a software one.

Well, not exactly. Chemistry "defines" resistance, software decides on voltage that is 'forced' onto it that causes current and ends in raising SOC. That resistance causes heat and it (and also electric current byitself) cause breakdown of chemical bonds.
Before SuperChargers there was this common knowledege that Lithium batteries are to be charged under CC/CV regime. SC threw that out the window and raised charging algorithms to a new level, where nothing is constant.
They monitor voltage, current, resitance, charge level, battery temperature, fluctuations etc to decide how much current is still safe at any given moment. I bet they now have more knowledge about what is safe than 2 years ago when they introduced supercharging. They *might* ease off that tapper curve a bit and improve average charging 'speed' using current HW in SC and cars because they've seen that they could do that.

It may also be that they've already pick those fruits and average charging speed cannot be improved with current battery chemistry. Only TM knows.

 

[MassModel3]

About the whole navigation issue. The navigation that is tied to the tech package and that everyone has right now is from a third party. It's not Tesla's navigation which probably places some limits on it. Tesla probably felt the need to tie it to the tech package because they have to pay for it and it's probably not cheap. Tesla tends to eschew buying components and software from third parties. See the various articles about teardowns of the dash and their ability to update software. But this navigation system has been one place that has been from a third party so far. My bet would be that Tesla did that because they felt they couldn't get away without turn by turn navigation that worked with the car couldn't get 3G.

On top of the above the existing navigation system is fairly limited. It can't do multiple way points. It can't navigate through super chargers. It can't avoid highways, toll roads or even let you choose from multiple routes. It has a slow and long delayed update process. There are a whole lot of complaints about the limitations of the system. Time has passed and maybe Tesla hasn't resolved these issues because Tesla has been replacing the navigation with something they have built in house. Imagine that they built their own navigation system with mapping data bought from Google. Something that could do all the missing features and can be updated regularly as Tesla likes to do.

Now imagine if Tesla just rolls that out to everyone (even people without the tech package) and along with it is trip planning that can handle figuring out how to get you from point A to point B including finding the best possible charging points. I don't see a whole lot of reason this isn't possible and it could explain why there hasn't been a lot of movement on the common complaints about the navigation software. The trip prediction software we got in 6.1 may have just been an initial roll-out of some of the features of this software, possibly to test the predictions and improve them so that it would be exceedingly rare that it predicted incorrectly.

In short I think it's possible that the navigation software we have today is being replaced entirely by something written by Tesla from scratch that is far more capable.

To me this makes a lot of sense. I could see there even being an option to choose between the 3rd party nav system that folks have paid for, or using Tesla navigation.

 

[WarpedOne]

If I had to bet on something, I'd bet on breser's suggestion.
It may not come this thursday, but it will come eventually.
Having navigation that half-ignores your own features is bad.

 

[MassModel3]

Can someone clarify what is the level of navigation you now get standardly vs what you get with the tech package? The Design Studio shows Navigation as a standard feature or am I mistaken?

What you now get standard appears to be the Nav package previously available only via the tech package. What we used to get standard was only mapping functionality with no navigation of any kind. With the tech package the icon reads "Nav" and without the tech package the icon reads "Maps".

In the design studio, if the Nav functionality was made a part of the tech package for the purpose of passing the 3rd-party cost onto the Model S buyer, then I could definitely see that Tesla has made it standard as a result of Tesla coming out with their own in-house navigation package.

I think (and hope) that this announcement is that Tesla now has their own navigation package, that it will be rolled out to all cars, that users with the original Nav package can choose which one they use, and that it will do an amazing job predicting energy use, and directing users to optimal charge locations as so many have speculated in this thread. An announcement, too, of an extension of the charging network would also be of no surprise to me -- Elon went on record (an interview posted in another thread that I need to find) saying that in time the Supercharger network would be available to other manufacturers, so he has to have a MUCH larger charging network planned.

From what I've gathered in this thread, the current Nav package doesn't necessarily apply outside of the US, but a Tesla package designed aroung (for instance) Google Maps could most certainly be applicable in other countries around the world.

 

[aaeverett]

Thanks for referencing me. I have another whack at justifying my WAG (wild-ass guess)...

Holding a press conference is a key component of the tweet. Navigation updates have happened in the past without a press conference, and Tesla will continue to release them, making better energy predictions. Torque sleep, or duty cycling the motor(s), might eek out a few % efficiency improvement and increase range a bit, and these will happen over time too, but are not worthy of a press conference.

Frankly, ending range anxiety is not about adding more range - all cars, ICEs included, have a range, and drivers can get anxious when nearing it. ICE drivers mitigate that risk with the plethora of gas stations around the world, filling up quickly. The largest issue with EVs right now is two-fold -- it takes far longer to replenish charge than filling an ICE gas tank, and the charging infrastructure is in its infancy, so there are not too many places to charge. To end range anxiety and make the EV charging experience closer to the ICE fueling experience, you have to tackle two things...

• Much faster charging; and
• Many more places to charge.

Now, a press conference is aimed at a very wide audience, media, analysts, potential buyers, and us, the faithful. Announcing a partnership with a large multinational chain which has convenient sites around the world to place a Supercharger (even 1 or 2 pedestals), is certainly worthy of a press conference. If Tesla engineers have mined the enormous amount of data they have collected on the Model S battery system and concluded they can dump far more energy into the battery more quickly, thus shortening the charging experience, they can address both aspects of the charging experience with one stroke. Now that's definitely worthy of a press conference.

Further food for thought ... the Model 3 in Elon's forecast volumes could quickly overwhelm the present and planned Supercharger infrastructure without a major disruption. Potential Model 3 buyers would be most concerned about the ability to use the car like they do their ICE cars now. I'll wager this could quench demand. Connecting the dots, this disruption could be what Elon hinted was "the demand secret weapon", in the lead up to Model 3 release.

I disagree with Faster charging and many more places. That is solving tomorrows problem with today's solution. Yes we solved ICE range with a zillion gas stations, but Tesla is strategically placing superchargers, not one on every street corner in america. This is a big data problem, i expect to see some combo of intelligent nav + eco mode

 

[mgemmell]

I can't waste anymore of my life reading this thread! Help!

Anyway, best guess seems to be:

... the existing navigation system is fairly limited. It can't do multiple way points. It can't navigate through super chargers. It can't avoid highways, toll roads or even let you choose from multiple routes. It has a slow and long delayed update process. There are a whole lot of complaints about the limitations of the system. Time has passed and maybe Tesla hasn't resolved these issues because Tesla has been replacing the navigation with something they have built in house. Imagine that they built their own navigation system with mapping data bought from Google. Something that could do all the missing features and can be updated regularly as Tesla likes to do.
... and it could explain why there hasn't been a lot of movement on the common complaints about the navigation software. The trip prediction software we got in 6.1 may have just been an initial roll-out of some of the features of this software, possibly to test the predictions and improve them so that it would be exceedingly rare that it predicted incorrectly.

In short I think it's possible that the navigation software we have today is being replaced entirely by something written by Tesla from scratch that is far more capable.

+1 on that.

This one was interesting:

...

A) If the announcement is Tesla Waze - the stock gets beat up and Tesla is still struggling to move beyond early adopters.

B) if it is Waze to 10,000 new points of light - the stock does well and I can tell my friends that when I get my X, I most often charge it in my garage, but when I need to top off, I just pop into (Wal-Mart, Starbucks.....etc).

if Elon spins another string of reveals a la 2013 in addition to B)....it's go time.

So thats bresers' suggestion + a whole ton of new and existing charge points in a DB tied to the GPS. Ok, cool.

And then there's:

...TRIP THROTTLE will have three modes:

FREE
... it throws you to the lions - or - you are free to do anything you like...

GUARD
A green dotted line on the power meter indicates a "suggested maximum accelerator power limit." ...

LIMIT
The yellow dotted line that indicates "accelerator power limit" shows up, and prevents you from accelerating the car beyond a certain level of force. ...

It would be easy to do this and very helpful for those of use who have done long drives. Many EVs have this kind of thing.

Throw in some improved algorithms in the low-level SOFTWARE tied to the PEM hardware and you might find a Model S being capable of 400 miles on a good day.

Range anxiety is aleviated by the range increasing measures but is essentially eliminated by the TurboWaze update.

Mark

 

[Hugh Mannity]

I wonder if a global company like subway or mcdonalds or walmart or someone is going to install HPWCs? however that is not an OTA, hmmm nevermind