Elon "About to end range anxiety"

[RadicalIgnorant]

Pre paid. Yes. Sorry. Or other way as simple as paying for phone calls. And by other I'd guess BMW - they are trying. Or Nissan (way too silent about them and in terms of quantity they are the leader). But for such a model they don't really need partner. Musk is famous for providing supply before demand materialise - and for being right about such "guesses".
Additional advantage is for European/Chinese cities where access to own garage is much more limited, so shared infrastructure is much more important.

 

[MassModel3]

I believe there are a lot of us here who love the single paddle driving and would hate to lose that capability. So no, I don't want that.

Yes, but for range driving, as long as we don't drive right on anyone's bumper it might be worth it improve mileage.

Then again, the more I think about it, the more I think I'd probably get frustrated with having to actually use the brakes at anything over 6 MPH. :frown:

 

[RadicalIgnorant]

And this last makes perfect sense when thinking about model 3 as Supercharger infrastructure is in some way laying fundations for success of this holly grail of Tesla.
Allows to use SC while not rising up front cost and helps apartment dwellers. This could be also easily adapted to much smaller chargers. Like - earn few bucks by instaling contact on front wall of your home - every one can plug in and will automatically pay you for electricity + some premium.

 

[Hometheatremaven]

I didn't post in that thread because I'll bet 99.9% of those posters have the tech package, and so I thought it would be ignored.

 

[TexasEV]

I didn't post in that thread because I'll bet 99.9% of those posters have the tech package, and so I thought it would be ignored.

As do probably close to that percentage of Teslas. When I bought my car, shortly after you, it seemed pretty clear that the tech package would be needed for some future upgrades.

 

[wk057]

I'd pretty much bet my Model S that supercharging will not be free for Model 3.

 

[dirkhh]

I'll bet my Model S that we'll hit 1000 posts here prior to the announcement

 

[brianman]

I'd pretty much bet my Model S that supercharging will not be free for Model 3.

I'll bet my Model S that we'll hit 1000 posts here prior to the announcement

Never bet something that you can't afford to lose.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Has anyone brought up the possibility of some sort of over the air anti-anxiety electro-shock helmet? Seems the obvious solution to irrational anxiety.

 

[Bluchip]

Never bet something that you can't afford to lose.

Ok. Here's the article about Tesla's charging patents from the June, 2014 AutoBlog. I believe that some of this has already been employed i.e. if you're a local, the maximum rate of charge at your nearby SC will be 60 kw. As reported on some other threads Tesla has already started to limit charging rates at some of their SCs. Take a look at the patent for more detail
Danny King
Tesla Motors is
quietly getting ready for an electric-vehicle charging station that could be considered smarter than the drivers using it. The California-based automaker has applied for a number of patents (details here) in which its super-quick Superchargers would be programmable to better manage what Tesla hopes will be a mass influx of thirsty Model S (and Model X and, potentially, Model E) EVs. This company thinks big.
Among other things, the patents detail a charging station that has multiple charging ports and that can manage multiple charging stages. It can also do things like redirect power to either whichever car arrives first or, by measuring the batteries' respective states of charge, who needs it the most. Heck, there's even a provision where the system can redirect power according to the drivers' intended departure time, i.e. whomever says they're sticking around the longest gets last charge. If the station could also get drivers to be truthful about such things, that'd be a real accomplishment.

Tesla has already had a lot of success with its Supercharger network, which is now expansive enough to exclusively power a cross-country drive. Earlier this month, a
couple of Model S vehicles went from Los Angeles to New York City using nothing but Superchargers and pulled off the trip in 76.5 hours (the blog posts are here). We're guessing those EVs may have broken the speed limit here or there, but don't quote us.a

 

[napabill]

So what's the current betting on when the OTA upgrade will actually start being delivered? I figure, maybe by May.

 

[arijaycomet]

Background: Without the tech package, my S has the "Maps" icon instead of the "Nav" icon.
I can ask voice control to find an address, and it can locate it on the map. But without the tech package, I have no turn-by-turn directions.
And because my Tesla doesn't know my route, I have no Energy Prediction graphs etc.

So I wonder if Elon's announcement tomorrow will really end range anxiety for non tech package Model Ss. In order to do that, it seems Tesla will have to change our Map function to Nav function.
I also wonder if we will get some kind of watered down Nav, like no turn-by-turn.

Interested to hear others thoughts, although I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

You read my mind! We just purchased an inventory 60 kWh for my wife-- car is in transit, it will be a 3-year lease for her, replacing her Nissan Leaf. One thing we would have liked but this car won't have is Tech Package. We'll be using my 85D as our primary car, so we decided it wasn't a huge deal. Plus we'll get a dash mount for her iPhone 6-plus, so she can use the infamous Apple Maps should she need proper navi. However, knowing that the car came with GPS built in, and 3G, it seems to me like adding some semblance of navigation to the non-tech-package cars would be simple. Question might be does the "guts" in the non-tech cars have the firepower to handle that? Hmmm...

But... since Elon's comments sounded like the changes might affect the entire fleet, that seems an unlikely change. UNLESS... my prediction is turn-by-turn PLUS multi-point routing. For long trips you'd be able to just plug in your FINAL destination and it would give you all the stops you needed the entire route, supercharger and all, to make it happen. Automatic "via supercharger" routing. And if that feature was coupled with nav for non-tech cars, THAT could be construed as a range anxiety reducing feature for everyone, right? ... we'll see soon enough!

 

[wk057]

Never bet something that you can't afford to lose.

Afford to lose... probably. Want to lose, definitely not.

 

[Barry]

Why speculate the night before the announcement? You'll find out tomorrow.

 

[apacheguy]

I'd pretty much bet my Model S that supercharging will not be free for Model 3.

It's not free. It's a $2000 option. For the 85s it's included. I'm sure Tesla will stick to the same strategy for the Model 3. It makes sense.

 

[basf_audio]

Would be interesting to see something like a battery swap with some amazing 1,500 mile pack that you lease for a few days at a time. Might be a $100,000 battery pack but since you're only using it for long distance travel and dropping it off on your next station it wouldn't matter since you'd never really want keep it.

You know - since everybody is wildly speculating and I wanted to get in on this thread before it hit 1,000 posts!

I think it'll be interesting tomorrow - but not magical!

 

[wk057]

It's not free. It's a $2000 option. For the 85s it's included. I'm sure Tesla will stick to the same strategy for the Model 3. It makes sense.

Perhaps. The $2000 option makes some sense, but I see there being an a-la-carte option as well.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Unless it is a minimal increase in capacity (or none, as I suspect) that would be hard to detect using voltage vs SoC alone, then I can pretty much guarantee (with 99.9% certainty) that the pack I have on my P85D has the same capacity as my P85.

The upper and lower charging voltages match with the SoC % nearly perfectly. A 10% increase in capacity is impossible with this being the case.

I do not have your data, but there is enough variability based on temperature, and the way SoC is reported (presumably by the car?) to question whether these data really disprove anything.

Incidentally, the fact that your battery maintained a higher charge rate longer, 20kW all the way to 98% is not inconsistent with it having higher capacity: the reported 98% rate might be actually 89% if the software reports battery capacity based on "official" 85kWh, while the actual capacity is 10% higher.

Once again, I am perfectly fine if it turns out that this theory turns out to be not true - I certainly witnessed good and thoughtful analysts being wrong before - but so far none of the arguments I saw in this thread kill it for me.

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Per your referenced link: Based on our recent tour of TSLA's primary production facility, we believe TSLA has made significantly more progress as it relates to battery cell production and optimization
I can't help but wonder why Tesla would be sharing this information with this analyst while at the same time being so incredibly secretive about it to everyone else (as wk057 pointed out). There's also the question of whether battery technology advances are referring to the Model S batteries, anticipated Gigafactory batteries, or Aluminum-Air batteries.

I am not sure how much you know about this analyst and company he represents, but I've been following him very closely for a while. He is specializing on covering the company for some time and proven to be very knowledgeable, thoughtful and pretty diligent in his research, he certainly "gets" Tesla. It is very plausible that he can draw his conclusions based on what he saw during the factory visit, without TM telling him anything directly.

There is no question what battery advancements he is referring to - just watch the interview. Not only he refers to Model S battery, he is specifically talking about what in his opinion will be released on Thursday

 

[wk057]

I do not have your data, but there is enough variability based on temperature, and the way SoC is reported (presumably by the car?) to question whether these data really disprove anything.

Incidentally, the fact that your battery maintained a higher charge rate longer, 20kW all the way to 98% is not inconsistent with it having higher capacity: the reported 98% rate might be actually 89% if the software reports battery capacity based on "official" 85kWh, while the actual capacity is 10% higher.

Once again, I am perfectly fine if it turns out that this theory turns out to be not true - I certainly witnessed good and thoughtful analysts being wrong before - but so far none of the arguments I saw in this thread kill it for me.

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I am not sure how much you know about this analyst and company he represents, but I've been following him very closely for a while. He is specializing on covering the company for some time and proven to be very knowledgeable, thoughtful and pretty diligent in his research, he certainly "gets" Tesla. It is very plausible that he can draw his conclusions based on what he saw during the factory visit, without TM telling him anything directly.

There is no question what battery advancements he is referring to - just watch the interview. Not only he refers to Model S battery, he is specifically talking about what in his opinion will be released on Thursday

WIth the starting voltage being nearly identical (+/-1V in my data, so +/-0.01V per cell set), the constant-voltage portion of the charge taper (~404V) would have to happen X% later if there were hidden capacity vs reported SoC. It does not.

 

[jeffreycpacfa]

I'd pretty much bet my Model S that supercharging will not be free for Model 3.

So, how do you make the SC free for all Tesla vehicles? Further entice other EV manufacturers to use "open-source" patents and charge these non-Tesla vehicles to use the SC network. I'm not sure how Tesla can continue offering freebies without adverse TSLA market price hits.