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Elon and JB speak in Oslo Feb 1st 2014 1000 CET (4AM EST)
- Thread starter Discoducky
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- Elon Musk Norway oslo Tesla Inc.
Great summary Brian. My big takeaways (all paraphrasing, not my opinions):
. Tesla likely first to market with 'autonomous' car.
. Potential for Tesla to be making millions of cars, more than 500,000 per year.
. Active hill-hold and higher top speed in development
. Larger batteries possible starting in about a year (my op. - with Model X intro, also available to S)
. No loss of efficiency going to AWD in X, less efficient drag coefficient and larger frontal area.
. Cameras for rear viewing, replacing mirrors, safer and more intuitive - held up by regulators.
. Super chargers transitioning to 135 kW
. Model X doors will adjust curve profile based on sensor input of adjacent environment (!)
. Potential for AWD model S when introduced for X.
OK, back to bed.
. Tesla likely first to market with 'autonomous' car.
. Potential for Tesla to be making millions of cars, more than 500,000 per year.
. Active hill-hold and higher top speed in development
. Larger batteries possible starting in about a year (my op. - with Model X intro, also available to S)
. No loss of efficiency going to AWD in X, less efficient drag coefficient and larger frontal area.
. Cameras for rear viewing, replacing mirrors, safer and more intuitive - held up by regulators.
. Super chargers transitioning to 135 kW
. Model X doors will adjust curve profile based on sensor input of adjacent environment (!)
. Potential for AWD model S when introduced for X.
OK, back to bed.
moollar
Member
Legend Brian! :biggrin: I ended up logging on to the live stream from about Q15, so really appreciate your summary.
Interesting to hear AWD for the Model S is likely to happen next year after Model X is in full production.
Haven't heard him say that directly before. If they can reduce the battery cost by 40% for Gen III, that will shake things up quite a bit I would imagine. Also would lead to incredible opportunities for the Model S and X if they can drop battery costs by at least the 30% figure he mentioned.
Interesting to hear AWD for the Model S is likely to happen next year after Model X is in full production.
Haven't heard him say that directly before. If they can reduce the battery cost by 40% for Gen III, that will shake things up quite a bit I would imagine. Also would lead to incredible opportunities for the Model S and X if they can drop battery costs by at least the 30% figure he mentioned.
I suspect thst Model SX wouldn't see the price drop as quickly, since Tesla has the new contract that requires new capacity.
moollar
Member
Yeah, that was my initial thoughts too. Maybe I'm taking quotes out of context.
Still, I guess it doesn't stop them from offering larger capacity packs next year though. Even if the cells won't be substantially cheaper, they might be able to offer it to people willing to pay.
Right, I just figured that the SX will be "stuck" with current 18650 format until 2018/2019 ends the current contract, but it wouldn't necessarily restrict them from getting density changes, as long as the production changes weren't too significant.
Larger capacity:
~ range: taxis, cold weather, Supercharger skips/holes, boxier vehicles
~ performance: need whole "Supersport" upgrade if inverter and motors are at limits
~ charging rate: Supercharger limits, but later taper
~ discharge rate: heavier so less efficient, but lower overall.
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What limitation would that be? The stability control system already requires a steering angle sensor, and so do the curve lights.
Great distill of Oslo Q&A, Brian! Big thanks.
There was some discussion on a Swedish forum about extra high-beam lights a while ago and this was mentioned: Visualeyes Rayzer, a small dual xenon projector that mounts in front of the mirror, so it doesn't get dirty.
Disclaimer: I have no interest in the company, but I might buy the product for my Tesla (once I have that;-) )
The guy wanted to install more light, like a LED bar, but was told by service that would void his warranty for the battery pack. Which sounds a bit baseless to me. Though it might need a beefier 12V pack and charger, I guess.
There was some discussion on a Swedish forum about extra high-beam lights a while ago and this was mentioned: Visualeyes Rayzer, a small dual xenon projector that mounts in front of the mirror, so it doesn't get dirty.
Disclaimer: I have no interest in the company, but I might buy the product for my Tesla (once I have that;-) )
Thanks to all who stayed up late, and particularly Brian, for the great info. I am one of those waiting (im)patiently for an AWD S, so I was hoping for one sooner than later but good to know that it will happen.
InTheShadows
Active Member
There may be a graphics card limitation. That the display doesn't do graphic overlays because the camera turns off if a dialog or a drop down menu covers it.
krla
Member
One thing I wish Elon would have said, in response to the teenager who asked him the question about leading other manufacturers to make electric cars, is that competitive pressure comes from consumer demand. He should start hitting home the point that if you want cars to go electric, you need to demand electric cars, which means you need to stop buying gas cars, period. Buying a gas car will only add demand for gas cars, which will make manufacturers continue to do the same thing. I know a lot of people who like electric cars in theory, who wish all cars would be electric, who know all cars need to be electric, but who have not committed to make their next car electric, to never buy a gas car again, or any other thing of the sort. Several years ago I made the commitment that I would not buy a gas car again, I drove my Jeep until it was basically dead and I found a good deal on a used Roadster, and now I drive a Roadster and plan never go to back to gas as my primary vehicle. All consumers need to do this as well. And consumers who like the idea of EVs in theory need to be reminded that their vote matters, and that what they do shapes the market. Every person who buys an electric car and shows it off to their friends does a lot for the future of the automative industry, especially when there are so few EVs out there on the whole. So while I liked his swagger when he mentioned competitive pressure, I think it would have been good if he reminded consumers that competitive pressure comes solely from consumer demand. It is us, the consumers, who will make this happen. Tesla helps by making a car which consumers want, but if consumers refused to buy gas, then the problem would be solved immediately.
Yes, well said FANGO. He is getting better each time I listen to him. I like his genuineness (a word?) and I think that allows him to connect well with his audience but you are on point with this suggestion/criticism of the way he handles this question.
Brian, thank you so much for the fantastic transcript. Some real gems of information in there, very very exciting future. This just shows that Elon is not stopping innovation, constantly perfecting and pushing the envelope in optimum directions. I love it!
Krugerrand
Meow
Very poignant point, Fango. I think we're all hoping that consumers will take that final stance when Gen III comes out. That vehicle will leave few excuses left for a good majority of people to ever buy an ICE car again. That's really been the issue to date, many can find too many excuses why an EV won't work for them. But as we know, those excuses are running out - fast.
So 2 pieces of information related to range/batteries caught my attention and I am not sure how I feel about them.
On the one hand, Elon said that bigger battery backs could be offered sometime next year. Now the news itself is very good and I was looking for hints on the next big battery revision for some time now. However, they way he said it made it seem less like a firm plan they have in place (i.e. they are already planning on doing that in 2015) and more like a possibility, almost a guess.
The other thing was Model X range. They were saying they expect a 10% loss in range due to the X being a bigger and maybe heavier car. Fair enough, the laws of physics apply to every car (except for Audi Q8 e-tron PR spins :tongue
, however I was hoping the Model X release would be the time for launching the bigger battery pack(s). If they launch the X with a lesser range, that could be spinned negativley. Range is key for EV perception and is in fact Teslas main advantage. To intorduce your second product 2-3 years later with lesser specs will be a letdown.
What do you guys think?
On the one hand, Elon said that bigger battery backs could be offered sometime next year. Now the news itself is very good and I was looking for hints on the next big battery revision for some time now. However, they way he said it made it seem less like a firm plan they have in place (i.e. they are already planning on doing that in 2015) and more like a possibility, almost a guess.
The other thing was Model X range. They were saying they expect a 10% loss in range due to the X being a bigger and maybe heavier car. Fair enough, the laws of physics apply to every car (except for Audi Q8 e-tron PR spins :tongue
, however I was hoping the Model X release would be the time for launching the bigger battery pack(s). If they launch the X with a lesser range, that could be spinned negativley. Range is key for EV perception and is in fact Teslas main advantage. To intorduce your second product 2-3 years later with lesser specs will be a letdown.What do you guys think?
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
@fango, I understand where you are coming from but, I'd rather Elon think and talk like a capitalist - and he's an excellent one, of course! - rather than act preachy or imploring or somewhere in between. He's always stated his goal (of sustainable transportation) and the means to it - making high-performance, wonderful-to-live-with, sexy cars that folks will end up craving (the electric drivetrain doesn't necessarily have to enter the equation there).