Elon and JB speak in Oslo Feb 1st 2014 1000 CET (4AM EST)

[RobStark]

If they launch the X with a lesser range, that could be spinned negativley. Range is key for EV perception and is in fact Teslas main advantage. To intorduce your second product 2-3 years later with lesser specs will be a letdown.

What do you guys think?

He does not want customers putting off buying an 85kWh Model S so they can buy an AWD 110 kWh Model S in 18 months.

Elon wants customers who are ready to buy today to buy an 85 now and upgrade to a 110 in three years.

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I'd rather Elon think and talk like a capitalist - and he's an excellent one, of course! - rather than act preachy or imploring or somewhere in between. He's always stated his goal (of sustainable transportation) and the means to it - making high-performance, wonderful-to-live-with, sexy cars that folks will end up craving (the electric drivetrain doesn't necessarily have to enter the equation there).

You should speak to your audience. To Green Norwegian Social Democrats he should preach to the choir. Amen! Brother Elon!

Speaking like an Anglo-Saxon Capitalist in Norway might get him tarred and feathered; or the Scandanavian equivalent.

When asserting his right to freely sell cars to willing Texas customers in Texas he should sound like an Anglo-Saxon capitalist.

As long as you don't grotesquely contradict yourself because YouTube is worldwide

 

[FANGO]

He does not want customers putting off buying an 85kWh Model S so they can buy an AWD 110 kWh Model S in 18 months.

Elon wants customers who are ready to buy today to buy an 85 now and upgrade to a 110 in three years.

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You should speak to your audience. To Green Norwegian Social Democrats he should preach to the choir. Amen! Brother Elon!

Speaking like an Anglo-Saxon Capitalist in Norway might get him tarred and feathered; or the Scandanavian equivalent.

When asserting his right to freely sell cars to willing Texas customers in Texas he should sound like an Anglo-Saxon capitalist.

As long as you don't grotesquely contradict yourself because YouTube is worldwide

Responding to Rob's comment only because it's most recent...

1) Responding to others in this chain of comments: I think the idea of a bigger battery seeming like an afterthought rather than a firm plan is probably correct. I do not think Tesla has a firm plan to increase battery sizes and range perpetually. I think they will stop where they are, or possibly add one larger battery and then stop there, because much more than 300 miles is ridiculous (and even 300 miles is ridiculous for the vast majority of use cases, I'm talking over 99%). Perception is important, though, which is the reason a big battery is important early on.

And as you say, Rob, telling people something better is coming soon may make them delay a purchase. But I don't think that's the motivation, I think the motivation is that Tesla knows consumers do not need bigger battery packs (though consumers may think they want bigger ones) - Elon and JB are both on record as saying this many times, that more range than what the Model S has is not really necessary, and that they could make a car with a huge range right now but it would be expensive and lousy. This is why so much focus on superchargers.

2) Absolutely about speaking to your audience. Also, remember, he doesn't "speak like a capitalist" very often, he says over and over that the motivation of the company is not to make money but is to move the world and industry forward. That's not really what a capitalist says, most of the time. And, acknowledging consumers' participation in the process would be a particularly enlightened thing for a capitalist to do, because in truth, the consumer is the capitalist's full reason for existence.

 

[Discoducky]

@BrianMan, thanks for the great transcript!

My biggest takeaway is that X will have the same wheelbase, the same width (overall) and nearly the same length (~5cm longer). Now I know I won't have to buy a new house!

For the rest of the information: It was great and know that we are going to hear quite a bit more information on the 19th

 

[jerry33]

1) Responding to others in this chain of comments: I think the idea of a bigger battery seeming like an afterthought rather than a firm plan is probably correct. I do not think Tesla has a firm plan to increase battery sizes and range perpetually. I think they will stop where they are, or possibly add one larger battery and then stop there, because much more than 300 miles is ridiculous (and even 300 miles is ridiculous for the vast majority of use cases, I'm talking over 99%).

I keep hearing this from people, but to me that seems to be 1970's EV thinking: "You have an EV and the technology isn't there yet so you have to make excuses instead of doing it right". Even in the best case, it will be decades before every possible route will be covered with Superchargers (means scenic state highways in addition to boring, and often unsafe, interstates). Very few gas cars do less than 300 miles and many do 500 miles plus--yet there are gas stations almost everywhere. This isn't about perception--it's about practicality.

 

[woof]

Very few gas cars do less than 300 miles and many do 500 miles plus--yet there are gas stations almost everywhere. This isn't about perception--it's about practicality.

Well, practically every house has a electric charging spot in it already, so the need for a "station" on every corner is reduced greatly from existing gasoline infrastructure.

As for a 300 mile range being "good enough", I agree--but only when those 300 miles can be achieved under all conditions. The 85 kWh Model S can go about 200 miles in all conditions today. They need at least 33% more battery capacity, and/or equivalent efficiency gains, to reach that.

 

[772]

Gas stations need to be everywhere because ICE drivers can't pull gasoline from their walls. So, we have cities with lots of gas stations because lots of people need gas stations close to them. However, with every home already having power outlets, the need for high-speed charging stations will be mostly for low density areas with lots of thru-traffic. I'm sure cities will eventually get high speed charging as well, but they won't need to blanket cities like gas stations do.

 

[roblab]

But I don't think that's the motivation, I think the motivation is that Tesla knows consumers do not need bigger battery packs..

OK, Tesla says 300 mile battery packs are big enough. But you and I know that driving 80+ mph on the I-5 or the I-95 yields about 200 miles. Most gassers will get 300 miles of range on a tank at freeway speeds. So Tesla is saying, "You don't need more than 8 gallons of gas, so the tank is 8 gallons". No. The competition is giving you 300 miles of range, and bragging about it, and you get to stop every 125 miles for a supercharge and spend 20 to 30 minutes for 200 miles of charge, which is less than 200 miles at freeway speeds.

They need more range. More real range. At speeds where people drive, not where I drive at 62 miles per hour so I can get 300 miles of range.

The first Supercharger on my route (not making a 50 mile detour to and back) is 230 miles from my house. Then it's 230 miles again to the next one, unless I detour 45 miles out of my way to a closer one not on my route.

Sure, there will be a lot of Superchargers some day, but even on the future maps for superchargers, there are none planned for, let's say, Bend, Oregon to Ontario, Oregon. If you happen to have relatives in Ontario, or Idaho, even, or Coeur d'Alene, there are not superchargers planned to get to Bend without hundreds of miles of detours. Of course, some of you may not drive more than 50 miles from home, but I have, I do, I will continue. I have 36,000 miles on my car.

You need a bigger battery alternative.

 

[DaveT]

You need a bigger battery alternative.

Elon mentioned a 500 mile battery pack in the future during a quarterly earnings call last year.

It'll come but it will just take some time. He also said every 4-5 years they'll be able to do a step change in battery improvement.

 

[RobStark]

Responding to Rob's comment only because it's most recent...

Responding to others in this chain of comments: I think the idea of a bigger battery seeming like an afterthought rather than a firm plan is probably correct. I do not think Tesla has a firm plan to increase battery sizes and range perpetually. I think they will stop where they are, or possibly add one larger battery and then stop there, because much more than 300 miles is ridiculous (and even 300 miles is ridiculous for the vast majority of use cases, I'm talking over 99%). Perception is important, though, which is the reason a big battery is important early on.

The reality is people are expecting 300 real world miles then find out that is 100% range charge at a steady 55 mph in summer like conditions.

In standard charge you are looking at 245 real world miles and standard charge is what Tesla recommends for daily driving.

Then in winter standard charge drops to 215 miles or so.

Luxury sedans are not about needs but wants. A Nissan Leaf or an Accord Hybrid that does close to maybe 45 mpg city and 40 highway in real world conditions would satisfy most people's real world needs.

As Tesla expands the percentage of people buying to eliminate oil use and reduce their carbon foot print will shrink.

People will increasingly buy it because it is a very good car or because it is a very high performance car that also happens to be environmentally friendly.

Do people scream nobody needs a VW clean diesel that gets 700 miles per tank?

People do scream that nobody needs a Porsche that does 0-60 in under 4 seconds but people still buy them and VW/Porsche sell them very profitably anyway.

If Tesla is going to become a stable independent automaker long term it needs to reach at least 1 million units in world wide sales.

It needs to cater to different people, different budgets and different purposes.

VW has VW, Skoda, SEAT, Audi, Porsche, Bentley, Lamborghini, and Bugatti.

Tesla does not need to emulate VW but it does need a wide portfolio of vehicles.

I think it would be a cool if they made a Model E with the goal of being as efficient as possible, beating LEAFs 129 MPGe.

I think it would also be cool to make a Model E Performance Plus, that spanks a BMW M3.

Different strokes for different folks.

 

[ecarfan]

The other thing was Model X range. They were saying they expect a 10% loss in range due to the X being a bigger and maybe heavier car. Fair enough, the laws of physics apply to every car (except for Audi Q8 e-tron PR spins :tongue, however I was hoping the Model X release would be the time for launching the bigger battery pack(s). If they launch the X with a lesser range, that could be spinned negativley. Range is key for EV perception and is in fact Teslas main advantage. To intorduce your second product 2-3 years later with lesser specs will be a letdown.
What do you guys think?

He said the X aerodynamics will negatively impact the cars range, he didn't say the rated range of the X would be less than the S. I think the X may debut with 10 to 15% larger battery options than the S currently offers.

 

[bint2k]

I'm sad no one asked Elon about the Tesla-Fighter Audi coming out… the Q8?!?…. I also love that people will soon realize that a Model S/X/E is going to last them many years longer then any other ICE car they've owned before (in terms of aluminum not rusting, parts of the car not falling apart, hoses not exploding in engine bays, etc). I only hope that Tesla will continue improving all of their cars features by retrofitting them in as many ways possible ie. Updating the Computer/Graphics Card running the screen so the car doesn't feel laggy in 5 years when Computer Technology/Interfaces change…. Imagine a Kinect type system in the car where you could just wave your arm to open the sunroof. Elon and JB were smart in getting people in a room for a Q&A =) I hope they hold events like this more often.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Rated range (205 Wh/km) at 100% for EU cars is ~400km. In January with -19..-22 being common I averaged 294 Wh/km. Meaning that my maximum range was 280km or 175 miles. That's not a 300 mile pack. Yes when I instead drive consistently and in row the heating etc drops off and I get on average more likely 300-330km, but that's still ~190-200 miles. So a bigger pack to get you realistically also 300 miles in winter would be excellent. That's probably around 400 mile pack or 110kWh.

 

[mrdoubleb]

He said the X aerodynamics will negatively impact the cars range, he didn't say the rated range of the X would be less than the S. I think the X may debut with 10 to 15% larger battery options than the S currently offers.

They said you would be losing 10% of your range as it's a bigger car with higher range. They did say that out loud. And nothing that they said made me think they would add a bigger battery to compensate, in fact, when they were talking about bigger battery packs, it seemed like an afterthought.

I agree with the points the "two Robs" made above. Even if the Model S did 300 miles no matter what, it would be a really foolish argument to say "you don't need the 500-700 mile diesels, you just think you do". Especially when you consider it takes 20 minutes to get to 170 miles, while an ICE refuels 500 miles in 5 minutes. Add to that, real world range is 200 miles with highway speeds (85mph / 130kmh) and even less in bad weather (wind, cold, heat).

And the "you have electricity everywhere" argument is only valid if you have a garage at home with a HPWC. And even that takes 4-5 hours so it only counts as an advantage when you start your trip. You can't just plug in at random people's houses and take a 38 hour break using their 110v plug....

Don't get me wrong, I am a huge fan and crazy about this car/company, but we need a reality check from time to time. In my opinion, a real world 400-500 mile range should be their midterm goal (2-3 years), with maybe a 15-33% percent boost to current packs in the short term (next 12 months). That would be the final nail in the coffin for the "ICE is better" argument.

And the final nail in the ICE coffin will be if, in the future, they can intorduce a cheaper brand (think Tesla's Skoda or VW at the least) with the current Model S range or more. That should be their 5-10 year plan. I like how Elon is all about pushing the big boys to switch to EV production, but this shouldn't go as far as handing market over to the ones who failed this planet so far. Imagine if GM or VW, or any of the big boys had really put all their resources in the past 10 years behind a long range, affordable EV. They would have had billions instead of millions and hundreds instead of dozens of engineers at their disposal. At some point they will either have to make that decision and try and work off Teslas 10 year advantage, or they have to license Tesla technology and pony up mountains of $$$.

 

[SteveW25561]

What limitation would that be? The stability control system already requires a steering angle sensor, and so do the curve lights.

Actually I was referring to another thread here where parking lines were discussed more in depth. Some have stated there might be a hardware limitation by the Tegra chipset in its ability to overlay graphics on top of a video feed (witness how the current implementation shifts the rear view camera video down if you activate home link, or if the camera image is in the lower half, it cuts off some of the temperature and volume pop up elements).

Others think the chipset IS capable but because Tesla has a custom OS they haven't optimized the drivers or APIs to access that function. I'm not a programmer nor have any knowledge beyond that.

I found it encouraging to hear about the parking lines from Elon himself (and find it intriguing your mention of the angle sensor -- I did not have any hope of dynamically moving lines according to steering wheel position, but now I might have some hope...).

 

[mrdoubleb]

I'm sad no one asked Elon about the Tesla-Fighter Audi coming out… the Q8

Yeah, I think that car is the wikipedia definition of vaporware. Leaking info about a product 3-4 years out which seems to defy the laws of physics with no explanation. (700km range with a 80kwh battery, yeah right... maybe it runs on air or stardust).

That's nothing more than a desperate attempt to keep Audi fans from reservenig a Model X. "Oooh, I shuldn't spend 100k on a X in 2015, if Audi has a 2x as good e-SUV 2 years later!"

 

[GSP]

you can watch the full thing here: http://bcove.me/8drqwgp8

Thanks for posting this video of the event.

GSP

 

[jerry33]

Gas stations need to be everywhere because ICE drivers can't pull gasoline from their walls. So, we have cities with lots of gas stations because lots of people need gas stations close to them. However, with every home already having power outlets, the need for high-speed charging stations will be mostly for low density areas with lots of thru-traffic. I'm sure cities will eventually get high speed charging as well, but they won't need to blanket cities like gas stations do.

This is true, but it wasn't my point. My point was that for the foreseeable future, 300 miles isn't really enough because it will take a long time to get enough Superchargers to really cover every route (chances are I won't be here by then). Right now there are zero Superchargers along my most commonly traveled trip route, so it takes about 27 hours to drive instead of about 12. Yes, I only do this a couple of times a year so I can live with that time, but I'd much rather not have to.

If the car had a 600 mile range, I could make one four or five hour stop for charging--gaining the extra 100 miles--which would save ten hours of charging time. Sometime in the next couple of years there will be Superchargers along the Interstate routes, which will add about 100 miles to the trip and force me to drive on the truck and road debris filled Interstates. Yes, it will be faster than now, but not nearly so safe or pleasant.

 

[InTheShadows]

I don't think it will take as long as you think. Elon stated this week that they are roughly turning on one supercharger per day globally. Also he stated that the network is not the goal. There isn't an end to it. This is just the beginning. When asked about Tesla becoming the largest car manufacture in the world he talked a lot about the massive charging infrastructure that needs to be installed.

They want to be the owners of that network. Firstly because no one else is doing it. Secondly they will have a monopoly on the best charging infrastructure in the world. Which gives them the flexibility years from now to lease out that network to other companies if they so desire, this generating more revenue for the company from other manufactures that they can spend on research and development to make even better cars/planes/chargers/batteries.

They won't have the density of existing gas stations because like stated above all local travel will come from home/work. But I believe they will have a fairly dense network such that a town with a population of 10-20k people will likely get one or two superchargers. And these will likely be at hotels or restaurants. Destination charging is huge on their list, so much so that there are ways for hotels and restaurants to get free hpwc's.

Look at the difference from 6 months ago. I think that one year from now the trips that we are fretting about now will be easily doable.

 

[Room_A113]

I just saw J.B. Straubel and Diarmuid O'Connell at the Newark, Delaware Supercharger at 5:00AM. Did he take a red-eye to Philly, and meet up with the coast-to-coast team? I now see that Elon also joined them in NYC. Those guys get around!

 

[Lessmog]

As I recall, both Elon and JB mentioned that before this year is over Tesla will have built another hundred superchargers globally and most of Western Europe will be reachable. Someone asked about making a trip from Norway to Paris (via Stockholm ??? ) by early summer, and that could be dubious, but Paris at the end of summer - certainly, said Elon. Or words to that effect.

During winter not much digging can be done due to snow and frost, but once spring sets in they will work twice as fast to make up for it.

They also mentioned an update to the map, but so far all it's done seems to be to remove the mid-point 2014, so it's only "now" or "winter 2014"; all granularity evaporated.