Elon and JB speak in Oslo Feb 1st 2014 1000 CET (4AM EST)

[callmesam]

I don't think it will take as long as you think. Elon stated this week that they are roughly turning on one supercharger per day globally. Also he stated that the network is not the goal. There isn't an end to it. This is just the beginning. When asked about Tesla becoming the largest car manufacture in the world he talked a lot about the massive charging infrastructure that needs to be installed.

They want to be the owners of that network. Firstly because no one else is doing it. Secondly they will have a monopoly on the best charging infrastructure in the world. Which gives them the flexibility years from now to lease out that network to other companies if they so desire, this generating more revenue for the company from other manufactures that they can spend on research and development to make even better cars/planes/chargers/batteries.

They won't have the density of existing gas stations because like stated above all local travel will come from home/work. But I believe they will have a fairly dense network such that a town with a population of 10-20k people will likely get one or two superchargers. And these will likely be at hotels or restaurants. Destination charging is huge on their list, so much so that there are ways for hotels and restaurants to get free hpwc's.

Look at the difference from 6 months ago. I think that one year from now the trips that we are fretting about now will be easily doable.

Elon claimed one Supercharger opening every WEEK day. Which means roughly 250 Superchargers opening in 2014.

100 will be opened in Europe.

That leaves 150 for the rest of the world.

I'm guessing that the US gets 100 more.

50 will be shared with:

China
Japan
Australia

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon claimed one Supercharger opening every WEEK day. Which means roughly 250 Superchargers opening in 2014.

100 will be opened in Europe.

That leaves 150 for the rest of the world.

I'm guessing that the US gets 100 more.

50 will be shared with:

China
Japan
Australia

Currently 1 per weekday. Once they ramp up production they'll increase cashflow and could accelerate.

 

[mrdoubleb]

They won't have the density of existing gas stations because like stated above all local travel will come from home/work.

If you look at Tesla as a company only producing $70k-110k cars, then that sentence is 100% true. I'd be suprised if cars in that price range would not be kept in garages.
If you believe Tesla will eventually produce 25k-35k cars, you'll have to deal with the fact that not all of those customers live in the suburbs or own garages at all. Not everyone will be able to charge at home.

 

[InTheShadows]

Cities are already making ev charging infrastructure mandates. NYC just made one a few weeks ago that all new parking structures must be ev charger ready. I'll see if I can find the link, not sure if I saw it here or it came through my solar news feeds.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Cities are already making ev charging infrastructure mandates. NYC just made one a few weeks ago that all new parking structures must be ev charger ready. I'll see if I can find the link, not sure if I saw it here or it came through my solar news feeds.

Here is the link:

Electric Vehicle Charging Ordinance Passes in NYC

 

[physicsfita]

Without

If you look at Tesla as a company only producing $70k-110k cars, then that sentence is 100% true. I'd be suprised if cars in that price range would not be kept in garages.
If you believe Tesla will eventually produce 25k-35k cars, you'll have to deal with the fact that not all of those customers live in the suburbs or own garages at all. Not everyone will be able to charge at home.

+1

Where I live right now, my only parking option is street parking. I doubt the city will let me have a designated street space just so I could install my EVSE. :crying: I really like where I live, but I figure in about 3 years when my Prius hits about 400k miles I will hopefully living in a place with a garage. Here's to hoping that "travel without compromises" someday includes not making compromises about where you live!

 

[Julian Cox]

Thanks Brian. AWD Model S - nuff said.

 

[hockeythug]

I have a feeling this "auto pilot" feature is gonna set me back a lot of $$$$$

 

[Frankrb]

I want to know when Tesla will be offering the new RED Tesla jacket JB was wearing in New Jersey to owners??

 

[bevguy]

It seems to me that many of the gaps in the future Supercharger networks will be filled in by 40 amp 14-50 type chargers at motels and hotels. These are fine for an overnight while-you-sleep charge. Eventually motels will figure out that they won't get electric car drivers as guests unless they have these. Putting them in becomes not a wave to green energy but competitive. I recently found 2 motels in a semi rural area within a half mile of each other with these chargers, even though there were no others within 40 miles.

The problems that Blink and others had of poorly designed and poorly maintained equipment, bankruptcy, etc will sort themselves out in time. The problems of being ICE'd will require locating charging stations further from main parking areas and maybe more active policy of towing offending ICE vehicles. So with the expansion of SC (I wish more were going to undeserved parts of the US) likely range anxiety will be minimal wwithin only a couple of years. By then your Model S will be an even better car thanks to software updates.

 

[Room_A113]

I want to know when Tesla will be offering the new RED Tesla jacket JB was wearing in New Jersey to owners??

I think you have to be listed on this page to get one of the red jackets: http://www.teslamotors.com/executives

At least that's the way it seemed to me. Of the 20+ Tesla employees on the Coast-to-Coast trip, only J.B. Straubel and Diarmuid O'Connell had on the red jackets. It must be one of the perks of being a Tesla exec! :smile:

 

[jerry33]

I think you have to be listed on this page to get one of the red jackets: http://www.teslamotors.com/executives

At least that's the way it seemed to me. Of the 20+ Tesla employees on the Coast-to-Coast trip, only J.B. Straubel and Diarmuid O'Connell had on the red jackets. It must be one of the perks of being a Tesla exec! :smile:

I hope that's not similar to being a "red shirt" in Star Trek.

 

[Joel]

Without

+1

Where I live right now, my only parking option is street parking. I doubt the city will let me have a designated street space just so I could install my EVSE. :crying: I really like where I live, but I figure in about 3 years when my Prius hits about 400k miles I will hopefully living in a place with a garage. Here's to hoping that "travel without compromises" someday includes not making compromises about where you live!

Do you plan on living in Ann Arbor long term, if so, send me a PM. I have a contact in AA that may be able to address your current situation.

 

[Jaff]

How many Model S's have been sold in Australia?...not a frigging chance of the Watney's Red Barrel crowd getting even one supercharger ahead of Canada...

Elon claimed one Supercharger opening every WEEK day. Which means roughly 250 Superchargers opening in 2014.

100 will be opened in Europe.

That leaves 150 for the rest of the world.

I'm guessing that the US gets 100 more.

50 will be shared with:

China
Japan
Australia

 

[Grendal]

How many Model S's have been sold in Australia?...not a frigging chance of the Watney's Red Barrel crowd getting even one supercharger ahead of Canada...

From what I understand from someone that lives there, Australia has no EV incentives right now and they are charged huge tariffs. So a buyer will be paying over twice the US price for the privilege of owning one. Tesla shouldn't be going out of their way to create a Supercharger network until they can have a substantial number of buyers. Maybe create one in anticipation of future sales but it should still come low on the priority list over places where stations are still needed.

 

[Doug_G]

Elon claimed one Supercharger opening every WEEK day. Which means roughly 250 Superchargers opening in 2014.

100 will be opened in Europe.

That leaves 150 for the rest of the world.

I'm guessing that the US gets 100 more.

50 will be shared with:

China
Japan
Australia

Canada being a rounding error?

 

[moollar]

How many Model S's have been sold in Australia?...not a frigging chance of the Watney's Red Barrel crowd getting even one supercharger ahead of Canada...

Tesla have not sold any Model S' in Australia yet - we're waiting for the RHD version to come out. The UK will get theirs first though. I agree that Tesla should definitely get some superchargers happening in Canada!

From what I understand from someone that lives there, Australia has no EV incentives right now and they are charged huge tariffs. So a buyer will be paying over twice the US price for the privilege of owning one. Tesla shouldn't be going out of their way to create a Supercharger network until they can have a substantial number of buyers. Maybe create one in anticipation of future sales but it should still come low on the priority list over places where stations are still needed.

The situation is not very good from a cost perspective in Australia. We have a "Luxury Car Tax" (LCT) that applies at a rate of 33% of the marginal amount of the purchase price above ~AUD$60k for regular vehicles and ~AUD$75k for "fuel efficient" vehicles (defined as less than 7L/100km fuel efficiency rating, which roughly translates to vehicles with an efficiency of approx. 34mpg and above, according to Google). Seeing as we have a free trade agreement with the US, there shouldn't be any import tariffs as such (as far as I'm aware), but we do have to pay 10% Goods and Services Tax (GST - the Australian equivalent of VAT). Then we have to pay our state stamp duty on the purchase price (except for the ACT - Canberra, which I believe has an exemption for EVs).

What this will probably translate to with the current exchange rate is at least AUD$100k for a base 60kWh Model S. With the LCT being applied to every marginal dollar of upgrades from there, a fully decked out P85+ Model S will probably end up being closer to AUD$200k than we would like. :frown: Should be interesting to see the pricing when it finally gets announced some time in the next couple of months.

Having said all this, these costs apply to all of the vehicles in the Model S price range, so they all have similarly high pricing. For example, a base 60kWh Model S will probably end up costing similar to a Mercedes E 250, which is listed at about AUD$105k on the Australian Mercedes website (for purchases in my state, NSW). What our Federal Government really needs to do is get rid of the LCT for ZEVs. That alone will help immensely and I'm sure that the Model S will sell VERY well if that happened.

 

[FANGO]

This is true, but it wasn't my point. My point was that for the foreseeable future, 300 miles isn't really enough because it will take a long time to get enough Superchargers to really cover every route (chances are I won't be here by then). Right now there are zero Superchargers along my most commonly traveled trip route, so it takes about 27 hours to drive instead of about 12. Yes, I only do this a couple of times a year so I can live with that time, but I'd much rather not have to.

If the car had a 600 mile range, I could make one four or five hour stop for charging--gaining the extra 100 miles--which would save ten hours of charging time. Sometime in the next couple of years there will be Superchargers along the Interstate routes, which will add about 100 miles to the trip and force me to drive on the truck and road debris filled Interstates. Yes, it will be faster than now, but not nearly so safe or pleasant.

If the car had 600 mile range, it would cost another 60 grand or something. How's the cost benefit for that sound to you?

You guys, ranges will not continually grow and grow. It's just not going to happen,, and thinking that it will only delays everyone's buying decisions. The only reason vw talks about 700 mile tanks is because they hate EVs (which btw relates to the q8, which will never come out), they want to make people think 700 mile range is necessary, but it's simply not. Manufacturers and customers would much rather make lighter and cheaper cars than ones with insane amounts of superfluous range, and this will continue no matter how cheap batteries get. As long as we are in a battery EV + conductive charging paradigm, which is the paradigm we will be in for decades to come, this will remain true. If you are waiting for 700 mile mass market or even luxury EVs you will be waiting a very long time. Probably forever.

The point about longer ranges for all driving conditions makes some sense, but those 700 mile numbers VW talks about are also only for certain driving conditions. No matter which car you drive, the conditions you drive it in and how you drive it will affect your range, it's just more obvious with an EV since you have a simple round number telling you what your range is. Also, I have a really hard time believing the range numbers people get in their Model S, because in my experience I never had any trouble getting very close to the rated range, even when I wasn't paying attention to my driving style, and in my Roadster I generally get about 5-10% less than ideal range no matter what I'm up to - heater on, 80mph, etc. Though I don't drive in snow...but every vehicle, again, does worse in snow.

 

[callmesam]

Canada being a rounding error?

on the 2014 map, canada should get about 10 Superchargers.

Not it a rounding error but canada already has the sun highway.

 

[Doug_G]

on the 2014 map, canada should get about 10 Superchargers.

Not it a rounding error but canada already has the sun highway.

The dots keep shifting in time and position, so we'll see what actually happens. Based on the original map we should already have some. There have been rumours of the first Supercharger going in at Squamish, BC. Unfortunately that is 4,500 km from here. There are already 50 closer US Superchargers. :biggrin: