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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
ludicrousspeed
Member
I must say that I'm not a huge fan of his last tweet. There's no reason to equate the reservations to $7.5B (even though it will eventually amount to that) for several reasons, including the fact that they won't receive that revenue for years and people will likely cancel their order.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Elon's over optimistic, one might even go as far as saying opportunistic, side showing. He tends to go in to this mode when he's been holding back for a while is finally set free.
He's exactly right to equate it to $7.5B... they have a lot more knowledge about the expected options mix and therefore ASP's than anyone else. Everyone knows this is future revenue, it is in the context of a product to be delivered in the future. Further, anyone cancelling is likely to be easily replaced so this is still a good marker.
hockeythug
Active Member
vjason
Member
He can easily guess revenue for year 1; as I said yesterday year 1 production will likely be sold out between now and the release date (if not much sooner).
If no one cancels, what was sold before the full reveal was ~3 months of production alone, just for the model 3. And that assumes they can build 500K a year as he said (not doubting, just putting forward that disclaimer).
My bigger question is will they ever starting putting cars on the lot, or are there enough customers out there who are willing to settle for a car that will take a short while to be built? I'm fine with custom orders and waiting (first new car I ever bought had to be custom ordered to get the engine+tranny combo I wanted), but for many a car is an impulse buy off the lot. This is all a very long term concern through, as the 3's will sell just fine as 100% custom orders until probably 2019 at the earliest. Tesla doesn't really have to worry about buying habits so long as they can sell 6 digits worth of pre-orders.
If no one cancels, what was sold before the full reveal was ~3 months of production alone, just for the model 3. And that assumes they can build 500K a year as he said (not doubting, just putting forward that disclaimer).
My bigger question is will they ever starting putting cars on the lot, or are there enough customers out there who are willing to settle for a car that will take a short while to be built? I'm fine with custom orders and waiting (first new car I ever bought had to be custom ordered to get the engine+tranny combo I wanted), but for many a car is an impulse buy off the lot. This is all a very long term concern through, as the 3's will sell just fine as 100% custom orders until probably 2019 at the earliest. Tesla doesn't really have to worry about buying habits so long as they can sell 6 digits worth of pre-orders.
BMW, Mercedes, VW and Audi are going to have to go on a massive hiring spree in order to fill all the Human Resources positions they will need to allow them to process, in a timely manner, the thousands of layoff notices they will be sending out to their workers...
RT
RT
