Elon Confirms Those Who Purchased FSD get Computer Upgrade Free

[Daniel in SD]

Uhhhh. That is where they are heading some ways out. That isn't now.

Their stated timeline is shorter than everyone else’s as far as I know.

Ahhhhh. Well you'd conclude that if you were inclined bet be so wrong as too....

What evidence is there that they’re not way behind? I’m just going by what Elon has stated in interviews and the current state of autopilot. I know a lot of people believe that there’s some super secret build of the software that will blow away the competition but I have my doubts.

Ignore price as inherently part of the product.

Let me repeat that; Wrong.

Wrong.

Wrong.

They're coming from a different direction, and the gap between these two approaches is quite large right now, which makes it very difficult to judge which is "more ahead" on the way to the intersection point Musk is describing.

Sure it is easier if you just lop off one key aspect, cost. Plus another one on top of that, too, how come coverage the support road domains are which I've only mentioned in passing here and I haven't seen you mention at all. But that just makes the comparison less meaningful.

I don’t see how having a higher cost and more limited domain could possibly make the product more difficult to develop. It’s really not hard to judge who is further ahead. Look at what Waymo and Cruise can do today. Elon says he’s running a build that can almost do his commute. It seems like you’re saying that Tesla will develop FSD first because they’re trying to do it at lower cost and in more domains

 

[pscarroll]

Can’t you stop with the liar crap? I tried to gently prod you in that direction with humor and you told me to stuff it. You are being a jerk.

No you called me an unknown and a liar, now a jerk. This forum mods on here will censor my posts if I say much more, as they censor stuff that gets too critical of Tesla. I'll keep being critical of Tesla when they deserve it, and Tesla fanboy robots like yourself are doing Tesla no favors

 

[SammichLover]

Their stated timeline is shorter than everyone else’s as far as I know.

Sure Musk is talking in inspirational, "reach for the stars" mode. However AFAIK nobody else has even talked about a timeline to the intersection point, which is normal rather than Musk's very different management and PR style from most CEOs. Do you know of anyone talking publicly about this intersection?

What evidence is there that they’re not way behind?

Ball is in your court on this, your claim. What evidence is that they are when you view the actual longterm competing products? For when the price (and coverage) intersection (potentially) happens.

I don’t see how having a higher cost and more limited domain could possibly make the product more difficult to develop.

It makes it a helluva lot tougher to sell to the same market/customers.

That's the race, to the same market. They flat out are NOT in the same market right now, and likely won't be for some years. Generally, in my estimation, the later that is the better for Waymo given Tesla's deployed infrastructure of a growing fleet of potentially ready-to-upgrade vehicles compared to their only relatively fledging number of deployed vehicles, along with technology gear cost drops usually being more dependable.

The thing is because Tesla is coming at this orthogonally to everyone else's approach, if they get there they're going to look a bit like they "came out of nowhere", at least for people that insist on trying to gauge it solely on the axis you are, and if Waymo et al aren't really close (or beat Tesla there) it'll hit them like ton of bricks. "Disruption" is the word the kids are using.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It makes it a helluva lot tougher to sell to the same market/customers.

That's the race, to the same market. They flat out are NOT in the same market right now, and likely won't be for some years. The thing is because Tesla is coming at this orthogonally to everyone else's approach, if they get there they're going to look a bit like they "came out of nowhere", at least for people that insist on trying to gauge it solely on the axis you are, and if Waymo et al aren't really close (or beat Tesla there) it'll hit them like ton of bricks. "Disruption" is the word the kids are using.

I think you're missing that by the time Waymo develops FSD the cost of all the hardware will be cheaper than it is now and should quickly trickle down to the consumer price point. That's the way technology has always worked in the past, "disruption" would be an understatement if Tesla manages to leapfrog everyone else. Anyway, I'll happily pay more than the current FSD price if they're successful.

 

[SammichLover]

I think you're missing that by the time Waymo develops FSD the cost of all the hardware will be cheaper than it is now and should quickly trickle down to the consumer price point.

I think you're not carefully, thoughtfully reading my posts. :/

I have explicitly mentioned this as aspect of the race.

<edit> I happened to have already ninja edited in an explicit sentence in the last post, to mention this again.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think you're not carefully, thoughtfully reading my posts. :/

I have explicitly mentioned this as aspect of the race.

To me the race is to get a working product. That's the way it's been for every new technology. I just don't understand why this time is different. The first commercial cellular phones were the size of a briefcase and now they can fit in a watch. Would it have been a good strategy to to try to develop the watch first?

 

[SammichLover]

To me the race is to get a working product.

And who's "product" is shipping? In seven digit unit numbers. And markedly improving after shipped.

 

[Mark_T]

I've never doubted that the upgrades to HW3 would be free for those who had already purchased FSD, the tricky one to answer is not 'if' it is 'when'...

... and that is still as vague as it has ever been...

 

[SammichLover]

I've never doubted that the upgrades to HW3 would be free for those who had already purchased FSD, the tricky one to answer is not 'if' it is 'when'...

... and that is still as vague as it has ever been...

"A wizard is never late, nor is he early, he arrives precisely when he means to!"

 

[Daniel in SD]

And who's "product" is shipping? In seven digit unit numbers. And markedly improving after shipped.

Casio was selling a lot of calculator watches in the 80's, maybe they should have promised a cellular phone upgrade

 

[SammichLover]

Casio was selling a lot of calculator watches in the 80's, maybe they should have promised a cellular phone upgrade

Are you suggesting arbitrarily designating a product to compare against another arbitrarily chosen product even though they have markedly different goals and price points, and ergo very different markets and customers, is kinda dumb/pointless?

Because if so I've got some news for you, just check for it over in that mirror in the corner.....

 

[Daniel in SD]

Are you suggesting arbitrarily designating a product to compare against another arbitrarily chosen product even though they have markedly different goals and price points, and ergo very different markets and customers, is kinda dumb/pointless?

Because if so I've got some news for you, just check for it over in that mirror in the corner.....

Waymo and Tesla have the same goal, level 5 autonomy.

 

[SammichLover]

Waymo and Tesla have the same goal, level 5 autonomy.

That is your arbitrarily incomplete statement of the express description of at least one of those goals (and the other one has not been spelled out publicly, but you're assuming it).

See?

P.S. "Level 5" is a pretty shaky way to describe Waymo's current product's goal, even.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That is your arbitrarily incomplete statement of the express description of at least one of those goals (and the other one has not been spelled out publicly, but you're assuming it).

See?

P.S. "Level 5" is a pretty shaky way to describe Waymo's current product's goal, even.

I don’t see.

Waymo’s mission is to make it safe and easy for people and things to move around. We aim to bring fully self-driving technology to the world that can improve mobility by giving people the freedom to get around, and save thousands of lives now lost to traffic crashes.

How is that different than Tesla’s FSD goal?
Waymo’s current product is completely useless until it’s level 4 so level 4-5 autonomy is definitely their goal for their current product.

 

[SammichLover]

Waymo’s current product is completely useless until it’s level 4 so level 4-5 autonomy is definitely their goal for their current product.

You said 5. No mention of 4.

The key problem being that going from 4 to 5 can be done simply by stating less ambitious goals of where and under what conditions the vehicle will operate. So using that scale is a very imprecise way to describe things for comparison.

How is that different than Tesla’s FSD goal?

Have you read and mentally retained any of the content of my posts. Seriously. If you aren't going to bother to try just stop replying.

 

[Knightshade]

You said 5. No mention of 4.

The key problem being that going from 4 to 5 can be done simply by stating less ambitious goals of where and under what conditions the vehicle will operate.

Uh...no.


the entire difference between 4 and 5 is that 4 only works some places and 5 works every place.

So you literally can't go from 4 to 5 by reducing where/when it works, it'd require the opposite of that.

I agree someone isn't paying enough attention to detail and maybe should stop replying, but I'm gonna have to disagree about whom that might be.

 

[Daniel in SD]

You said 5. No mention of 4.

The key problem being that going from 4 to 5 can be done simply by stating less ambitious goals of where and under what conditions the vehicle will operate. So using that scale is a very imprecise way to describe things for comparison.

The goal is level 5, just like Tesla they’re not there yet. They’ve got a license in CA to test as a level 4 vehicle (a remote operator to take over if the vehicle gets in trouble) but I don’t think they’ve started doing that yet.

I must admit I’m having a hard time understanding your argument. I understand that Tesla’s path to FSD is different than Waymo’s. What will be the feature differences between Tesla FSD and Waymo FSD that makes Tesla’s system easier to develop? It seems like all of Tesla’s choices will make it harder to develop.

 

[SomeJoe7777]

Hmmm.

For some reason in the last couple of pages of this thread, I have alternating urges to 1) launch my P3D from a stop light and 2) order a large ham and cheese.

 

[SammichLover]

The goal is level 5, just like Tesla they’re not there yet.

Only as described it isn't "just like Tesla". Even setting aside the crucial price aspect, which you stubbornly keep trying to leave it out.

Using that 1-5 range like that is a trap. It wasn't made for categorizing and equating system, it was made for conveying some concepts.

I must admit I’m having a hard time understanding your argument. I understand that Tesla’s path to FSD is different than Waymo’s.

The first sentence appears to be because your second sentence actually isn't true. An illustration of what you're doing.

What will be the feature differences between Tesla FSD and Waymo FSD that makes Tesla’s system easier to develop?

Who claimed "easier"? Not I, because that and "harder" is a red herring when we're talking about time to get there on this. Further, your "easier" seems to be based on magical thinking of "well you just build it and it'll all get hugely cheaper really fast". Which, if you dig into the crux of what's driving so much of the costs for Waymo, isn't matching up with reality. The LIDAR problem is going to take a lot of time (and we've got a pretty good idea of the bottom end of years by what's in the development pipeline). You can call it is "easier" because "well someone else will do that work", but that doesn't necessarily make it happen sooner.

 

[SammichLover]

Hmmm.

For some reason in the last couple of pages of this thread, I have alternating urges to 1) launch my P3D from a stop light and 2) order a large ham and cheese.

Why not do both!