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Elon ducking behind bogus "regulation" for $10K Level 5 bet this year

DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
2,050
2,151
SF Bay Area
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448
comma said:
We hear you are extremely confident that you’ll have level five next year (no longer need to pay attention at all). Want to wager $10k on that? We think you’ll win, but not that fast.
Elon said:
Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.
There is no regulation stopping Elon in several states.
 
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DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
2,050
2,151
SF Bay Area
It has been said by Waymo and others that Arizona does not have laws / regulations requiring a driver. Florida and Texas have also been mentioned.
... which states currently allow the public sale & use of cars without human drivers on all public roads?
I think all cars are sold without a human driver. :p
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
I haven’t particularly kept up with regulations, but which states currently allow the public sale & use of cars without human drivers on all public roads?

I don't know about selling consumer cars that are driverless but there are several States like AZ that allow driverless robotaxis. That's how Waymo can deploy a commercial ride-hailing service in Phoenix with no safety drivers.

There is nothing stopping Tesla from deploying driverless robotaxis today in Phoenix like Waymo has done, if Tesla had FSD capable of driverless.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448

There is no regulation stopping Elon in several states.

I find it interesting that Elon completely moves the goal posts in those tweets. Initially, it was FSD that does not require driver attention. But Elon replies about FSD that is safer than humans. So now it is not about true driverless anymore, it is just about being safer than humans. Of course, you can have a driver assist that is safer than human driving too.
 

Bladerskb

Senior Software Engineer
Oct 24, 2016
2,557
4,268
Michigan
Congrats to George for finally not shilling Tesla/Elon musk for once. Also I admire him for being the first prominent figure in ADAS/AV to call out elon musk on his constant BS and lies head on. Notice how he dropped 'Level 5' and added BS 'regulation'.

Here's George's response which is very much too generous but of-course he wont dare agree to it.

"I’m fine with that as the bet. We’ll buy a Model 3 with FSD. l’ll supervise it driving me around for a month next January, no disengagement you win, any safety disengagement or user action required to get to destination we win. Will post video proof to claim. Deal?"

https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1345213744662499328
 

Tiger

Active Member
Oct 31, 2016
1,723
1,616
Estonia
I find it interesting that Elon completely moves the goal posts in those tweets. Initially, it was FSD that does not require driver attention. But Elon replies about FSD that is safer than humans. So now it is not about true driverless anymore, it is just about being safer than humans. Of course, you can have a driver assist that is safer than human driving too.

Safer than human has been implied since beginning, it's not a moving goalpost (if anything, people are becoming worse drivers with their smartphone distractions).

They probably want to be backed by statistics (more data) before they unleash the FSD where may be.
 

TresLA

Member
Jul 15, 2018
208
242
L.A.
But aren’t Waymo taxis in Arizona level 4 (geofenced)? Level 5 (I thought) allows sale of cars without steering wheels. As for “does not have laws” requiring a driver, that’s not the same as having laws for driverless cars. Namely, in a sue-happy country like ours, I’d expect companies to want “protections” from consumers since driverless cars are expected to have accidents while still being safer than “the average human driver”.
 

DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
2,050
2,151
SF Bay Area
... in a sue-happy country like ours, I’d expect companies to want “protections” from consumers since driverless cars are expected to have accidents while still being safer than “the average human driver”.
Elon said driverless this year and didn't mention needing protection.
Poll of the week: When not have to pay attention to Tesla Driver
I think the chances of protections are zero unless Republicans control everything. Yes this is a sue happy country, so that is why I and others are dubious of Elon's claim of driverless this year, except for very simple cases like bumper to bumper traffic on the freeway, or gated Senior community.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
Safer than human has been implied since beginning, it's not a moving goalpost (if anything, people are becoming worse drivers with their smartphone distractions).

They probably want to be backed by statistics (more data) before they unleash the FSD where may be.

It is a moving goal post because Elon clearly said he was confident in L5 this year but now he is saying that he is only confident in "FSD" being safer than human driving. Those are two completely goals. You don't need L5 to be safer than human driving. Tesla could achieve "safer than human driving" without achieving L5.

But aren’t Waymo taxis in Arizona level 4 (geofenced)? Level 5 (I thought) allows sale of cars without steering wheels. As for “does not have laws” requiring a driver, that’s not the same as having laws for driverless cars. Namely, in a sue-happy country like ours, I’d expect companies to want “protections” from consumers since driverless cars are expected to have accidents while still being safer than “the average human driver”.

Yes, Waymo's taxis in AZ are L4. L5 has nothing to do with selling cars without steering wheels. You can sell cars without steering wheels that are L4.

Tesla could sell or deploy L4 (geofenced) now if they had true FSD. But Tesla does not have true FSD yet.
 

TresLA

Member
Jul 15, 2018
208
242
L.A.
Okay, excuse the use of the word “sale”. The point is level 4 is where current examples are at. Not level 5, which is the original interview question and post. Whether or not Elon Musk is moving the goal post doesn’t concern me. ‍♂️ But level 5 (steering wheel optional, no driver interaction/override option needs to be included, and the car can go anywhere you are allowed to drive as a human driver behind the wheel of a “normal” car). I’m not used to have to be so specific and nit picky about my words to get a simple point across.

edit: that male symbol was a shrug emoji, not sure how it got turned into a gender symbol
 

powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
3,101
6,678
USA
Yeah, level 5 is a pipe dream not happening this decade. We'd make a ton of money if Elon put money behind his level 5 words, in other words accepted bets.

The problem is that level 5 isn't actually defined with specificity. This would allow anyone to say Tesla hasn't achieved level 5 because of some technicality (like "I see humans driving in this wildfire but FSD can't, so it isn't level 5!").

At the end of the day, the levels don't matter at all. If Tesla deploys a robotaxi service that encompasses 99% of Uber customers, it doesn't matter if it's level 4 or level 99. The practicality has been achieved.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
Okay, excuse the use of the word “sale”. The point is level 4 is where current examples are at. Not level 5, which is the original interview question and post. Whether or not Elon Musk is moving the goal post doesn’t concern me. ‍♂️ But level 5 (steering wheel optional, no driver interaction/override option needs to be included, and the car can go anywhere you are allowed to drive as a human driver behind the wheel of a “normal” car). I’m not used to have to be so specific and nit picky about my words to get a simple point across.

edit: that male symbol was a shrug emoji, not sure how it got turned into a gender symbol

Note sure what your point is. Elon was asked about L5 because he promised L5 this year. Now, he is apparently walking it back since he is not promising L5 anymore. So I would say that he is moving the goal posts, yes.

Once again, lots of discussion and hooha about the useless SAE levels. We've been discussing the levels for years and have gotten no better understanding or consensus about FSD progress.

For me personally, studying the SAE levels has greatly helped me better understand FSD progress.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
The problem is that level 5 isn't actually defined with specificity. This would allow anyone to say Tesla hasn't achieved level 5 because of some technicality (like "I see humans driving in this wildfire but FSD can't, so it isn't level 5!").

At the end of the day, the levels don't matter at all. If Tesla deploys a robotaxi service that encompasses 99% of Uber customers, it doesn't matter if it's level 4 or level 99. The practicality has been achieved.

If the levels are so meaningless, why does Elon keep promising L5?
 
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powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
3,101
6,678
USA
If the levels are so meaningless, why does Elon keep promising L5?

That's the only terminology he has to point people towards what Tesla is striving to achieve.

To be frank, I don't appreciate Elon's deceptive wording and description of Tesla's autonomy either. But with any visionary (and any person), there are pros and cons. Rather than taking Elon's word at face value, I just look and experience what Tesla releases. We get the "evidence" in raw form.
 

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