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Elon ducking behind bogus "regulation" for $10K Level 5 bet this year

Silicon Desert

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Tiger

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It is a moving goal post because Elon clearly said he was confident in L5 this year but now he is saying that he is only confident in "FSD" being safer than human driving. Those are two completely goals. You don't need L5 to be safer than human driving. Tesla could achieve "safer than human driving" without achieving L5.

Sir! You are splitting heirs and semantics, here. Tesla has clearly stated in the contract terms that it is subject to regulatory approvals and Elon has often iterated that regulators can only be convinced by data of FSD being superhuman. The only moving goalpost is that you have been fooled to pay for FSD in advance and there is no end in sight.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
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Sir! You are splitting heirs and semantics, here. Tesla has clearly stated in the contract terms that it is subject to regulatory approvals and Elon has often iterated that regulators can only be convinced by data of FSD being superhuman. The only moving goalpost is that you have been fooled to pay for FSD in advance and there is no end in sight.

Except the regulator approval thing is total BS since we know several States like AZ where Tesla could deploy driverless cars today if they wanted to. Now perhaps Elon is seeking regulatory approval because he is only interested in deploying driverless when he can do it everywhere at the same time. But regulations do allow Tesla to deploy driverless cars in some areas now if Tesla wanted to.
 

diplomat33

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Yeah, level 5 is a pipe dream not happening this decade.

Elon seems to be the only one really pushing L5. Although I've seen some Mobileye marketing material that mentions L5 too.

I think most AV companies are focused on L4. Krafcik is on record as saying he does not like the SAE levels. And when talking about autonomous driving, he only mentions L4.

The focus on L4 makes sense to me. I think most AV companies are just focused on where they can get their FSD to work well.
 

aronth5

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Yeah, level 5 is a pipe dream not happening this decade. We'd make a ton of money if Elon put money behind his level 5 words, in other words accepted bets.
I get the fact that everyone is typically focused on level 5 where the car doesn't have a driver, aka robotaxi. However, that capability is not needed for FSD to dramatically change the automotive landscape with Tesla likely the first major car company to benefit.

Lets assume for a minute that I have to:
1) pay close attention for the first minute after I set the destination
2) the last minute when I'm arriving at my destination so I can drive into parking lot areas as needed
3) during the drive when FSD runs into an edge case like a closed road or police redirecting traffic. In none of these cases would I need to take over immediately to avoid an accident just an alert to take over within a minute.
This would let me read, text message, browse or watch Netflix. The value would be enormous and waiting for Level 5 without a driver doesn't have to be the end all be all that so many are fixated on. Tesla's revenue upside in this scenario is very significant.

As I've posted before FSD doesn't have to be robotaxi capable (driverless) since the vast majority of people won't go into the robotaxi business anyway
 

MP3Mike

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Feb 1, 2016
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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448


There is no regulation stopping Elon in several states.

Well by the L5 definition it can't have a restricted ODD. So a L5 capable vehicle deployed in a state that allows it isn't L5 because it can't leave the state. So it may not ever be possible to have a L5 vehicle because some state/country might have regulations that restrict it.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
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I get the fact that everyone is typically focused on level 5 where the car doesn't have a driver, aka robotaxi.

FYI, that's not the key characteristic of L5. L4 can also be a car with no driver. L5 is a car with no driver yes, but it has the additional requirement that it has to be able to drive everywhere, day and night, and in all weather and driving conditions that a human can be expected to handle, with no human intervention ever.

That's why robotaxi companies like Waymo are focused on L4 instead of L5. L4 is easier. L4 is also a car with no driver but it does not need to work everywhere. It can be a car with no driver but limited to just a particular area, like say 1 city.

However, that capability is not needed for FSD to dramatically change the automotive landscape with Tesla likely the first major car company to benefit.

True, Tesla does not need to achieve a "car with no driver" in order to provide a big benefit to Tesla owners. But if it still requires a driver, it would not be FSD. Tesla should not call it FSD in that case. Sorry if I am coming across as pedantic. But I just think it is important that we not dumb down FSD.

Lets assume for a minute that I have to:
1) pay close attention for the first minute after I set the destination
2) the last minute when I'm arriving at my destination so I can drive into parking lot areas as needed
3) during the drive when FSD runs into an edge case like a closed road or police redirecting traffic. In none of these cases would I need to take over immediately to avoid an accident just an alert to take over within a minute.
This would let me read, text message, browse or watch Netflix. The value would be enormous and waiting for Level 5 without a driver doesn't have to be the end all be all that so many are fixated on. Tesla's revenue upside in this scenario is very significant.

You seem to be describing L3. That would not be FSD since it still requires a driver. That's cool. I agree that L3 would be a big benefit to owners. However, Elon is adamant that they are doing L5.
 

aronth5

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FYI, that's not the key characteristic of L5. L4 can also be a car with no driver. L5 is a car with no driver yes, but it has the additional requirement that it has to be able to drive everywhere, day and night, and in all weather and driving conditions that a human can be expected to handle, with no human intervention ever.

That's why robotaxi companies like Waymo are focused on L4 instead of L5. L4 is easier. L4 is also a car with no driver but it does not need to work everywhere. It can be a car with no driver but limited to just a particular area, like say 1 city.

True, Tesla does not need to achieve a "car with no driver" in order to provide a big benefit to Tesla owners. But if it still requires a driver, it would not be FSD. Tesla should not call it FSD in that case. Sorry if I am coming across as pedantic. But I just think it is important that we not dumb down FSD.

You seem to be describing L3. That would not be FSD since it still requires a driver. That's cool. I agree that L3 would be a big benefit to owners. However, Elon is adamant that they are doing L5.

Personally I don't care what L level it is associated with. What I do know is the constant back and forth amongst forum members arguing over the different L levels is tiresome and I now skip those postings. What I described would satisfy the needs of the vast majority of drivers and would be a major disruptor to the industry. I also believe it's reasonably attainable which would make FSD really valuable and worth people buying.
 

Tam

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Nov 25, 2012
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I haven’t particularly kept up with regulations, but which states currently allow the public sale & use of cars without human drivers on all public roads?

Before Tesla announced FSD, Florida already enacted the law for Autonomous vehicles in September 2016. Shortly after that in December 2016 Michigan did the same with the clarification that there is no need for steering wheels, brake and accelerator pedals. The only thing they ask is if you want to sell your car to run around without a licensed driver in their states, your cars need to obey all traffic laws.

As of one year ago, only about 10 out of 50 states still don't have anything legislated on Autonomous vehicles.

Autonomous Vehicles | Self-Driving Vehicles Enacted Legislation
 

eli_

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May 14, 2018
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Personally I don't care what L level it is associated with. What I do know is the constant back and forth amongst forum members arguing over the different L levels is tiresome and I now skip those postings. What I described would satisfy the needs of the vast majority of drivers and would be a major disruptor to the industry. I also believe it's reasonably attainable which would make FSD really valuable and worth people buying.

I doubt Elon cares about SAE levels either and no one should expect him to apply them in a precise way, especially on Twitter. I assume he'll play fast and loose with his tweets as always, he probably just considers any "feature complete" FSD to be level 5/full autonomy, to say nothing about the reliability of the system.
 

Bet TSLA

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Dec 8, 2014
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FYI, that's not the key characteristic of L5. L4 can also be a car with no driver. L5 is a car with no driver yes, but it has the additional requirement that it has to be able to drive everywhere, day and night, and in all weather and driving conditions that a human can be expected to handle, with no human intervention ever.

That's why robotaxi companies like Waymo are focused on L4 instead of L5. L4 is easier. L4 is also a car with no driver but it does not need to work everywhere. It can be a car with no driver but limited to just a particular area, like say 1 city.



True, Tesla does not need to achieve a "car with no driver" in order to provide a big benefit to Tesla owners. But if it still requires a driver, it would not be FSD. Tesla should not call it FSD in that case. Sorry if I am coming across as pedantic. But I just think it is important that we not dumb down FSD.



You seem to be describing L3. That would not be FSD since it still requires a driver. That's cool. I agree that L3 would be a big benefit to owners. However, Elon is adamant that they are doing L5.
Not sure what you are complaining about. Elon said he's confident that Tesla would achieve level 5 self-driving this year. He hasn't changed or "walked back" that statement in any way. Somebody says "bet you don't" and Elon replies saying something tangential. He may as well have said "Nice weather we're having." so far as his original statement is concerned. He's not taking the bet, is he? That doesn't change anything.

I wouldn't take that bet either. It would just get into wrangling about how precisely to define the corner cases. Can the car take verbal instructions from a traffic officer? in any language? and hand signals? Can it handle a bridge out situation? How about a wildfire? a flood? What will it do in a war zone? Or a riot? How about if people mess with it? Is all this well defined?

As I see it, if Tesla FSD can't meet the minimum requirements of the level 5 spec in 2021, then Elon got it wrong again. If it can, he can declare victory. But it's just shorthand. What he is really interested in is a car that's safer than humans can drive it. Preferably all the time everywhere, but most of the time in most places would be great.
 

Tiger

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Except the regulator approval thing is total BS since we know several States like AZ where Tesla could deploy driverless cars today if they wanted to. Now perhaps Elon is seeking regulatory approval because he is only interested in deploying driverless when he can do it everywhere at the same time. But regulations do allow Tesla to deploy driverless cars in some areas now if Tesla wanted to.

You can deploy your car wherever you can - it is, however, a different topic where and when Tesla will deploy robotaxis, or whether and when Tesla will implement required software for taxi feature. You can already Tesla FSD Beta takes driver from SF to LA with no human intervention if you don't require robotaxi feature. Robotaxi is a separate discussion from FSD, though being contingent on it.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
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Not sure what you are complaining about. Elon said he's confident that Tesla would achieve level 5 self-driving this year. He hasn't changed or "walked back" that statement in any way. Somebody says "bet you don't" and Elon replies saying something tangential. He may as well have said "Nice weather we're having." so far as his original statement is concerned. He's not taking the bet, is he? That doesn't change anything.

I wouldn't take that bet either. It would just get into wrangling about how precisely to define the corner cases. Can the car take verbal instructions from a traffic officer? in any language? and hand signals? Can it handle a bridge out situation? How about a wildfire? a flood? What will it do in a war zone? Or a riot? How about if people mess with it? Is all this well defined?

As I see it, if Tesla FSD can't meet the minimum requirements of the level 5 spec in 2021, then Elon got it wrong again. If it can, he can declare victory. But it's just shorthand. What he is really interested in is a car that's safer than humans can drive it. Preferably all the time everywhere, but most of the time in most places would be great.

I really don't care one way or the other. I am fine with Tesla not delivering L5. But I'd like consistency.

If Elon is going to use the SAE levels, then I do expect him to know the SAE levels. If Elon is really confident in L5 this year then he should take the bet. And he should be held to that promise of delivering L5.

If our cars can't take verbal instructions from a traffic officer or hand signals, or handle a bridge out situation, or a wildfire or flood (pull over automatically) then they are not L5. And Elon should not promise L5. If Elon is not sure if our cars can meet all the edge cases for L5, then he should not promise L5. That's fine. Nobody is forcing him to promise L5.

If Elon is really interested in "a car that's safer than humans can drive it. Preferably all the time everywhere, but most of the time in most places would be great." that would be great. I am all for that. And Elon should say that. But that is not L5. Elon should not promise L5 then.

Elon cannot have it both ways. He can't promise L5 but then if our cars don't meet the definition of L5 get away with "oops, my bad, I really meant that our cars would be safer than humans almost everywhere."

I think Elon promising L5 this year is an "unforced error" on his part. The fact is that Tesla does not have to promise L5 at all. Tesla could deliver L4 and that would be amazing. Tesla could deliver L3 and that would be fantastic. Tesla could deliver a driver assist that requires driver attention but works everywhere and is safer than human driving, that only requires disengagements 1 every 1,000 miles and that would be awesome. But if Elon is going to promise L5 then he should be held to the definition of L5.
 

tomas

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Anyone who has been watching Musk for more than 5 minutes should know better than to spout about what he should do, how he should be “held accountable”, etc. Tesla has been the market maker that put EVs on the map, and pushed the envelope on autonomy. Now, no car maker doesn’t have an electric car on the road or in the works, and few offer cars without significant driver assist and intent for more. All that done without advertising. You expect him to stop tweeting aspirations as if they were fact? Or think he “shouldn’t”? Suggest just not taking it literally. Seriously, but not literally.
 

run-the-joules

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Aug 13, 2017
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Anyone who has been watching Musk for more than 5 minutes should know better than to spout about what he should do, how he should be “held accountable”, etc. Tesla has been the market maker that put EVs on the map, and pushed the envelope on autonomy. Now, no car maker doesn’t have an electric car on the road or in the works, and few offer cars without significant driver assist and intent for more. All that done without advertising. You expect him to stop tweeting aspirations as if they were fact? Or think he “shouldn’t”? Suggest just not taking it literally. Seriously, but not literally.


So it's ok to lie to customers about your product as long as your company is successful?

How much money has Elon snookered out of people with his claims about what FSD will be able to do and when those things will happen?
 

powertoold

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Elon's been very confident of this and that, but he's been wrong about his confidence. Is he lying?

Also, as I said, level 5 is not actually defined. Some people will interpret level 5 as some sort of general intelligence (for example if a cop uses a megaphone to tell the car what to do). Others will simply see it as statistical human level in terms of safety. Elon can say level 5 if he wants because there's no consensus about what it actually means.
 

run-the-joules

Turgid Member
Aug 13, 2017
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Elon's been very confident of this and that, but he's been wrong about his confidence. Is he lying?

Also, as I said, level 5 is not actually defined. Some people will interpret level 5 as some sort of general intelligence (for example if a cop uses a megaphone to tell the car what to do). Others will simply see it as statistical human level in terms of safety. Elon can say level 5 if he wants because there's no consensus about what it actually means.

He might not be *lying* about this, since it's not entirely within his control. However, things within his control have been promised and then never happened, which is absolutely lying.
 
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DanCar

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Oct 2, 2013
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He might not be *lying* about this, since it's not entirely within his control. However, things within his control have been promised and then never happened, which is absolutely lying.
Tesla and Elon said automatic driving in city streets in 2019. Didn't happen.
Tesla and Elon said automatic driving in city streets in 2020. Didn't happen.
Is that lying? Sure one could say it is lying, but I think most will think it is Elon being Elon and being overly optimistic and not realizing how difficult the problem is. Even if it is Elon being Elon a court would find Tesla not meeting the purchase agreement and at least partial refund(s) in order.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
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Also, as I said, level 5 is not actually defined. Some people will interpret level 5 as some sort of general intelligence (for example if a cop uses a megaphone to tell the car what to do). Others will simply see it as statistical human level in terms of safety. Elon can say level 5 if he wants because there's no consensus about what it actually means.

No! L5 is well defined. The SAE J3016 document does define L5 very clearly.

Just because some people (on an internet forum) misinterpret or don't understand the definition, does not mean the definition does not exist.

You may not like the SAE definition. You may think the definition has problems. Fair enough. But a definition does exist. To say there is no actual definition is false.

Sorry, I have to push back hard on this. You are basically saying that Elon can just make up his own definitions for real terms. No, he cannot.
 
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