Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[Barklikeadog]

Just checking that you are aware of this Dec 19th Tweet.

The answer should be: Anyone who originally purchased a _____ model with FSD with ____ hardware. We are sorry but you are getting left behind. We will issue you refund checks starting next month. (Along with a form with lots of tiny print indicating you will not sue us if you cash the check). We are not going to continue to lead you on, retrofitting your car for FSD simply isn't possible to do in any reasonable way.

Naturally the next person will ask: What about the lost value of my car????????????

Everyone else, you will have FSD this year or I will eat my shirt and punch myself in the face.

 

[am_dmd]

Just checking that you are aware of this Dec 19th Tweet.

Very last sentence with word "hopefully" itself is the red flag IMO. They have this FSD computer since beginning of this year and now he thinks AP2 etc is a thorny HW? That to me suggests they haven't done a zilch regarding AP2 retrofit and just kicking the can/buying time and hoping 2.0/2.5 heard gets smaller and smaller.

 

[mongo]

Very last sentence with word "hopefully" itself is the red flag IMO. They have this FSD computer since beginning of this year and now he thinks AP2 etc is a thorny HW? That to me suggests they haven't done a zilch regarding AP2 retrofit and just kicking the can/buying time and hoping 2.0/2.5 heard gets smaller and smaller.

Just checking if you knew of that statement since it is only a month old, not trying to imply anything about what will happen.

 

[am_dmd]

Just checking if you knew of that statement since it is only a month old, not trying to imply anything about what will happen.

Oh thank you for citing it. I think I remember reading it.

 

[diplomat33]

From the Q4 earnings report that was just released:

Autopilot & Full Self Driving (FSD)

To date, Tesla vehicles have driven over 3 billion miles in Autopilot mode. As our fleet grows, Autopilot miles increase exponentially, adding yet more data to our neural net. All Tesla vehicles with our FSD computer have been updated with new software that can better detect new details in their environments, allowing us to show various lane markings, traffic lights, stop signs, cones as well as other vehicles and road users. Understanding the environment around a Tesla is key to enabling our cars to react to traffic lights and stop signs and take intersections through city streets. We are currently validating this functionality before releasing to customers, and we look forward to its gradual deployment.

 

[metaxaos]

Understanding the environment around a Tesla is key to enabling our cars to react to traffic lights and stop signs and take intersections through city streets.

As predicted, just stopping/starting on intersections for now, disguised as FSD. Which is not City NoA and thus not feature-complete...
Actually, let's see what they gonna say during the call. Hopefully, they'll give some estimates on "real" FSD as well.

 

[diplomat33]

As predicted, just stopping/starting on intersections for now, disguised as FSD. Which is not City NoA and thus not feature-complete...
Actually, let's see what they gonna say during the call. Hopefully, they'll give some estimates on "real" FSD as well.

"Take intersections" could mean just going through an intersection of making turns at intersections.

 

[metaxaos]

"Take intersections" could mean just going through an intersection of making turns at intersections.

That was my first guess as well, but in that case they certainly wouldn't have missed a chance to call it feature-complete (as this alone covers probably 80-90% of all common commute scenarios) which they haven't. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[diplomat33]

That was my first guess as well, but in that case they certainly wouldn't have missed a chance to call it feature-complete (as this alone covers probably 80-90% of all common commute scenarios) which they haven't. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I think they are describing feature complete just not using term.

 

[metaxaos]

It's a bad sign they changed Model Y design page though:
Design Your Model Y | Tesla

So now it says:
First deliveries begin in March 2020

and yet:

Coming later this year:

• Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• Automatic driving on city streets.

Which means no even "respond to traffic lights and stop signs" until after March?

 

[willow_hiller]

Straight from the Earnings Call, "soon" means "a couple of months from now."

He says they're only just beginning to take advantage of the FSD hardware, and the progress from here on out will appear rapid to customers. They're improving labeling efficiency 3x, evidently.

 

[diplomat33]

Straight from the Earnings Call, "soon" means "a couple of months from now."

He says they're only just beginning to take advantage of the FSD hardware, and the progress from here on out will appear rapid to customers. They're improving labeling efficiency 3x, evidently.

That's good to know although we all know that "a couple months" in ElonTime could mean longer. But it is nice to know that they are improving labeling significantly.

 

[diplomat33]

Elon says that the ride sharing app will probably be released before robotaxi FSD.

Elon also defined "feature complete" a bit differently. He says "feature complete" means there is a non-zero chance that the car can self-drive from your house to work with no interventions.

 

[dckiwi]

Straight from the Earnings Call, "soon" means "a couple of months from now."

He says they're only just beginning to take advantage of the FSD hardware, and the progress from here on out will appear rapid to customers. They're improving labeling efficiency 3x, evidently.

Pretty disappointing answer. This was vague even by Elon standards. Also he didn't answer the second part of the question about retrofits. Man they are not being transparent *at all* about the retrofit program. Just tell us how it's going!

 

[Knightshade]

Straight from the Earnings Call, "soon" means "a couple of months from now."

He also made a point of saying feature complete just means a "non zero chance of it working- not that it will work well"

 

[dckiwi]

He also made a point of saying feature complete just means a "non zero chance of it working- not that it will work well"

Ok cool, so we're a couple of months out from releasing something that may or may not work, and that's after we upgrade the hardware in your car at some point, no details or timeline on that. Got it!

 

[Knightshade]

Ok cool, so we're a couple of months out from releasing something that may or may not work, and that's after we upgrade the hardware in your car at some point, no details or timeline on that. Got it!

well, they're upgrading cars now, and have been for weeks at least- given the timeline implied for when you'll really care if you've been upgraded I don't think there's gonna be many (if any) folks still waiting for the upgrade by that time.

 

[eli_]

Can't wait for full-self driving with a greater than 0% chance of success.

 

[dckiwi]

Can't wait for full-self driving with a greater than 0% chance of success.

 

[metaxaos]

Can't wait for full-self driving with a greater than 0% chance of success.

Highway autopilot is pretty much "greater than 0% chance of success" from on-ramp to off-ramp without interventions right now.
So it sounds quite legit to provide the same confidence level for city driving. Far from Level 5 but I'll be happy with it, just as I'm happy now with highways.